Palmeiras vs Flamengo Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Palmeiras
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Flamengo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Recommended Bets: Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Match Preview
The title race in Brazil’s Serie A is boiling down to the wire, and this fixture is the epicentre. Palmeiras arrive on the back of a five-match unbeaten run (WWDWW), capped by a ruthless 6-1 demolition of Remo and a gritty 1-0 cup win, showing both attacking flair and defensive resilience. Flamengo, meanwhile, have surged to the top with four straight league wins, racking up 13 goals in that stretch and displaying an attacking fluidity that few can match. With just three points separating them at the summit, the stakes could not be higher.
This is a clash of styles as much as form. Palmeiras’ recent defensive record is formidable—just one goal conceded in five, four clean sheets, and only 0.2 goals against per game in that span. Yet Flamengo’s attack is in full flow, averaging 2.6 goals, 17 shots, and 7.6 on target per game in their last five, with Pedro and Samuel Lino leading the charge. Both sides are strong on set pieces, with Flamengo’s 8.6 corners per match and Palmeiras’ 5.6 suggesting plenty of attacking pressure. Discipline could be a factor, but neither side has seen a red card in the last five.
With both teams in peak form, the model expects a cagey opening as each tests the other’s strengths—Palmeiras’ defensive organisation against Flamengo’s creative firepower. The first goal may not arrive until after the half-hour, but both sides have the quality to score. A draw is the most likely result, with the likeliest scoreline 1-1, as neither side can afford to lose ground in the title chase and both have the tools to cancel each other out.
How Palmeiras and Flamengo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Palmeiraslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengolast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, and have conceded only once in that span, including a 6-1 home win and a goalless draw away. Flamengo, meanwhile, are the hottest team in the league, riding a four-match winning streak and scoring 13 goals in those games. Both teams have found their best form at the business end of the season, making this a genuine summit clash.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
Palmeiras vs Flamengo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Palmeiras vs Flamengo that most previews miss.
- 1Palmeiras have conceded only one goal in their last five matches, keeping four clean sheets in that run.
- 2Flamengo have scored at least three goals in each of their last four Serie A matches, totalling 13 goals.
- 3Flamengo’s last five matches have averaged 8.6 corners per game, while Palmeiras have averaged 5.6.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Palmeiras vs Flamengo Prediction
Two sides at the summit of Brazilian football meet with everything to play for and momentum surging on both benches. Palmeiras have found another gear at home, smashing Remo 6-1 and shutting out four of their last five opponents, while Flamengo arrive on a four-match league winning streak, having scored three or more in each of their last four domestic outings. The title race is alive, and neither side will want to cede ground. Statistically, this is a battle of Palmeiras’ defensive discipline against Flamengo’s relentless attack. Palmeiras have conceded just once in their last five, but Flamengo’s 13 goals in that span have come from a variety of sources, with Pedro and Samuel Lino in electric form. Set pieces could play a role: Flamengo average 8.6 corners per game recently, while Palmeiras have drawn 5.6, and both are disciplined, averaging under two yellows per game. The first half may be cagey, with both teams scoring seven first-half goals in their last five, but both also keep things tight after the break. The model expects a tense, tactical duel with few clear chances early, but enough attacking quality on both sides to break through. Palmeiras’ home edge is countered by Flamengo’s current hot streak and superior away scoring record (36 in 17 away games). With both sides so well-matched and recent H2H meetings often tight, a 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, though a late winner for either cannot be ruled out.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Flamengo are on a four-match league winning streak, scoring 13 goals in that period.
- →Both clubs average over 16 shots and 5 shots on target per game in their last five, highlighting attacking intent.
Defence
- →Palmeiras have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just once.
Where the Model Sees Value: Palmeiras vs Flamengo(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides arrive in peak form, with Palmeiras unbeaten in five (WWDWW) and Flamengo on a four-match league winning streak, while their last two meetings in São Paulo finished level or by a single-goal margin. Recent defensive solidity from Palmeiras (four clean sheets in five) and Flamengo's attacking momentum (13 goals in last five) suggest a tight, high-quality draw is the likeliest outcome.
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BTTS: Yes
Flamengo have averaged 2.6 goals per game across their last five, while Palmeiras have scored 11 in their last three at home, but both have also conceded in three of their last five meetings. The attacking talent on both sides and recent BTTS trends (three of Flamengo’s last five, one of Palmeiras’s) point towards both finding the net.
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Corners: Over 8.5
Flamengo have averaged 8.6 corners per game in their last five, Palmeiras 5.6, and both sides regularly force high corner counts in big matches. The attacking intent and set-piece threat should push the total above the 8.5 mark.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
🚩 Palmeiras vs Flamengo Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.5 corners for Palmeiras and 6.2 for Flamengo, for an expected total of 12.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 88% · Over 10.5: 72%.
What History Says: Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Flamengo have the edge in the last ten meetings, winning five to Palmeiras’ two, including two away wins in São Paulo. However, the most recent clash saw Palmeiras win 3-0 in Rio, and three of the last ten have ended in draws. Tight margins and low-scoring games are common in this fixture.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Palmeiras wins
3
Draws
5
Flamengo wins
Things to Watch: Palmeiras vs Flamengo
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams are in exceptional form, increasing variance and the chance of a decisive moment breaking the deadlock.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late injuries or rotations could impact the attacking or defensive balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Palmeiras 1–1 FlamengoA 1-1 draw is the model’s call, driven primarily by Palmeiras’ superb recent defensive record (four clean sheets in five) and Flamengo’s attacking streak (13 goals in their last four). The likeliest way this prediction fails is if either side’s attacking stars find an early breakthrough, opening the game up and leading to a higher scoreline.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Common Questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
The model rates this as extremely close, with Palmeiras given a 35% chance, Flamengo 29%, and the draw the most likely outcome at 36%. Both sides are in excellent form, so the margins are razor-thin.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
There’s a 55% probability that both teams will score, with Flamengo averaging 2.6 goals per game and Palmeiras netting 11 in their last three at home. Both have also shown occasional defensive lapses in high-stakes matches.
Can Flamengo’s winning streak continue against Palmeiras?
Flamengo have won four straight league games, but Palmeiras have not lost in five and have conceded just once in that span. The model expects Flamengo’s streak to be checked, with a draw the most likely result.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Palmeiras vs Flamengo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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