Bahia vs Coritiba Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Bahia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Coritiba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Bahia vs Coritiba
Bahia vs Coritiba: Match Preview
Bahia arrive in sixth place, six points off the top four, with a home record that has underpinned their season (eight wins, six draws, three losses). Their recent form is mixed (LWDLW), but they have scored in four of their last five, including three against Sao Paulo. Coritiba, sitting 12th, have struggled for consistency and have lost three of their last five, failing to score in three of those matches.
The statistical matchup leans towards Bahia: their home attack averages 1.53 goals per game, while Coritiba's away defence concedes 1.76. Bahia's shot volume at home (13.4 per game in the last five) is also superior to Coritiba's away output. Both teams combine for over 11 corners per game in recent matches, and neither side keeps clean sheets regularly (Bahia 26.5%, Coritiba 20.6% across the season). Goal timing trends suggest early action, with Bahia netting five first-half goals in their last five.
Given these rates, the model expects Bahia to control possession and create more chances, especially in the first half. Coritiba's away attack is volatile, but their set-piece threat (5.4 corners per game in last five) could yield opportunities. The likeliest outcome is a home win in a match with at least two goals, but Coritiba's sporadic attacking bursts mean a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline is more probable than a rout.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bahia vs Coritiba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bahia vs Coritiba that most previews miss.
- 1Bahia's home matches average 2.65 goals per game, compared to Coritiba's away average of 2.82.
- 2Bahia have scored first in 56% of their home games, while Coritiba have conceded first in 59% of away fixtures.
- 3Both teams combine for 11.8 corners per game over their last five matches.
Who do you think wins: Bahia vs Coritiba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bahia vs Coritiba(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Bahia 52.9%, Coritiba 47.1%) and Bahia's home matches average 2.65 goals, with Coritiba conceding 1.76 per away game.
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Match Result: Bahia Win
Bahia's home record (8W, 6D, 3L) and Coritiba's away defensive frailty (30 conceded in 17) give the hosts a clear statistical edge.
Corners: Over 8.5
Both teams combine for 11.8 corners per game over their last five matches, suggesting a high set-piece volume.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Bahia vs Coritiba Prediction
Bahia's home scoring rate and Coritiba's away defensive record point to a match with above-average goal expectancy. The hosts' attack generates 1.53 goals per home game, while Coritiba's away defence concedes 1.76 per match. Recent form is mixed for both, but Bahia's higher shot volume and more consistent home results tip the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bahia average 1.53 goals scored per home game; Coritiba concede 1.76 away.
Match Context
- →Bahia's home record: 8W, 6D, 3L; Coritiba's away record: 5W, 4D, 8L.
- →Bahia have scored in 4 of their last 5; Coritiba have failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
🚩 Bahia vs Coritiba Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Bahia and 4.4 for Coritiba, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Bahia and Coritiba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bahia vs Coritiba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bahialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Coritibalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahia's recent form is patchy but positive at home, with two wins and a draw in their last five, scoring seven goals in that span. Coritiba, by contrast, have lost three of their last five and have struggled to find the net, failing to score in three recent outings. Momentum is with Bahia, especially in front of their own fans.
Bahia vs Coritiba — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Bahia vs Coritiba
Bahia have historically held the upper hand in this fixture, especially at home, winning three of the last five home meetings. Four of the last six encounters have seen both teams score, and the last clash was a 3-2 thriller. Draws are not uncommon, but Bahia's home advantage has often proved decisive.
Bahia vs Coritiba Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Bahia wins
4
Draws
2
Coritiba wins
Things to Watch: Bahia vs Coritiba
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could affect attacking or defensive output.
- ⚠️Coritiba's away attack is inconsistent, with 3 matches without a goal in their last 5.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bahia 2–1 CoritibaBahia are projected to win 2-1, with the strongest data point being Coritiba's away defensive record of 1.76 goals conceded per game. The biggest risk lies in Bahia's occasional defensive lapses at home, which could allow Coritiba to snatch a draw if the hosts fail to convert early chances.
Bahia vs Coritiba: Common Questions
Who will win Bahia vs Coritiba?
Bahia are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 21% for Coritiba and 31% for a draw. The hosts' superior home record and Coritiba's away defensive struggles underpin this edge.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Bahia vs Coritiba?
The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by both teams' above-average rates for high-scoring games (Bahia 52.9%, Coritiba 47.1%) and their combined average of 2.7 goals per match.
Are both teams likely to score in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Both teams to score is rated at 53%, reflecting Bahia's strong home attack and Coritiba's inconsistent but occasionally effective away offence. However, Coritiba have failed to score in three of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bahia vs Coritiba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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