PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
PEC Zwolle
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Cambuur
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Cambuur Win
@ 3.5(+40% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Maertens Strike Lifts Cambuur to Narrow Win at Zwolle
Cambuur snatched a dramatic 1-0 away victory over PEC Zwolle at the MAC³PARK Stadion, thanks to a late goal from M. Maertens in the 83rd minute. In a closely contested Eredivisie encounter, both sides created chances, but it was Cambuur's clinical edge in the dying moments that made the difference. Zwolle, despite matching Cambuur for much of the match and registering more shots on target (6 to 4), were left to rue missed opportunities and a lack of cutting edge in the final third. Both teams finished with three yellow cards apiece, highlighting the competitive and physical nature of the contest.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
83' — Goal
M. Maertens scores the decisive goal for Cambuur, finishing off a well-worked move.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up three yellow cards each, reflecting the match's competitive edge.
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle started brightly and maintained a high tempo throughout much of the match, pressing Cambuur and carving out 15 shots, 6 of which were on target. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for attacking flexibility, with T. Oosting and D. Mbayo providing energy in midfield. However, Zwolle struggled to convert their chances into goals, and their defensive line was ultimately breached late on. Despite conceding more possession (46%), Zwolle's defensive organization kept Cambuur at bay for most of the game. The late goal was a bitter blow after a disciplined display, and their inability to find a breakthrough in attack proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cambuur
Cambuur executed their game plan effectively, controlling 54% of possession and matching Zwolle's attacking output with 13 shots, 4 of which were on target. Their patient approach paid dividends late on, as M. Maertens capitalized on a rare defensive lapse to secure all three points. Defensively, Cambuur absorbed Zwolle's pressure well, with T. Jansen providing a safe pair of hands in goal. The midfield duo of Ethan Apkakou and N. Souren helped Cambuur dictate the tempo, while the back four remained composed under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a balanced midfield battle and mirrored structures across the pitch. Cambuur focused on controlling possession, often building patiently from the back and looking to exploit spaces between Zwolle's lines. Zwolle, meanwhile, pressed aggressively and looked to transition quickly, creating several promising chances but lacking a clinical edge. Set pieces and wide play were important for both sides, with neither able to capitalize until Cambuur's late breakthrough. Substitutions from both managers aimed to inject fresh legs and attacking impetus, but the tactical chess match remained tight until Maertens' late intervention.
Turning Point
M. Maertens' 83rd-minute goal, which broke the deadlock and sealed the win for Cambuur.
Man of the Match
M. Maertens
Scored the decisive goal and provided a constant threat in attack, ultimately deciding the match.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: Match Preview
PEC Zwolle enter this fixture in dire form, having lost five of their opening seven Eredivisie matches and conceding 20 goals in the process. Their home record is especially poor: three defeats from three, with only a single goal scored and twelve conceded, leaving them 16th in the table. Cambuur, only marginally better off in 14th, have at least shown attacking intent, scoring in every away match and averaging 1.8 goals per game over their last five, though their own defence has leaked 19 goals in seven games.
Statistically, this match projects as high-scoring. Zwolle's defensive numbers at home (4.00 conceded per game) are the worst in the division, while Cambuur's away defence is only marginally better (2.00 conceded per away game). Both teams' matches have seen over 2.5 goals at a combined 78% rate this season, and Cambuur have seen both teams score in four of their last five. The second half is especially lively for Cambuur, who have scored seven of their last nine goals after the break, suggesting late drama is likely.
The model expects Cambuur's more consistent attack to capitalise on Zwolle's defensive issues, especially as the game opens up in the second half. While neither side can be trusted at the back, Cambuur's higher shot output and lower rate of failing to score tip the balance. A 2-1 away win is the modal outcome, but the volatility in both teams' recent results means a wide range of scores remains plausible.
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur that most previews miss.
- 1Zwolle have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match this season, conceding at least three in every home game.
- 2Cambuur's matches average 4.14 total goals, the highest in the bottom half of the Eredivisie.
- 3Second-half goals dominate for Cambuur: 7 of their last 9 goals have come after half-time.
Who do you think wins: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Cambuur Win@ 3.59
Cambuur's attacking output (1.43 goals per game, 1.8 in last five) and Zwolle's home defensive collapse (12 conceded in 3 home games) create a probability edge over the 28.6% implied by the odds.
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The Case For This PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Prediction
Both sides arrive with defensive frailties but Cambuur's superior scoring rate and Zwolle's disastrous home record tilt the probabilities toward the visitors. The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest, with both teams more effective in attack than defence and a pronounced second-half goal bias, especially for Cambuur. The likeliest scenario is Cambuur exploiting Zwolle's vulnerabilities, particularly after the break, but volatility remains high given both teams' inconsistency.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cambuur average 1.43 goals scored per game and have failed to score only once all season.
Defence
- →Zwolle have conceded 12 goals in 3 home matches (4.00 per game), the worst home defensive record in the league.
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Zwolle's and 86% of Cambuur's matches this season.
🚩 PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for PEC Zwolle and 4.2 for Cambuur, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How PEC Zwolle and Cambuur Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
PEC Zwollelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Cambuurlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Zwolle have lost four of their last five, including a 0-7 home defeat to Feyenoord and a 0-3 loss at Groningen, highlighting severe defensive issues. Cambuur are unbeaten in three (W1 D2), scoring six goals in that span, and have failed to score only once all season, showing more attacking consistency.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
Cambuur hold a slight edge in recent head-to-heads, with five wins to Zwolle's four in the last ten meetings. High-scoring games are common between these sides, with six of the last ten producing at least three goals, and both teams have won away in this fixture in recent years.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
PEC Zwolle wins
1
Draws
5
Cambuur wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
The away win is the standout value, with the model's 40% probability for Cambuur translating to a significant edge over the 28.6% implied by Bet365's 3.50 odds. Goal markets are efficiently priced, with minimal edge on over 2.5 and both teams to score, so the main statistical value lies in the 1x2 away selection.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results, increasing the risk of outlier scorelines.
- ⚠️Neither side has a reliable defence, but attacking execution can be inconsistent, especially for Zwolle (2 failed to score in last 5).
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are unconfirmed at the time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
PEC Zwolle 1–2 CambuurThe model calls a 2-1 Cambuur win, driven by Zwolle's league-worst home defensive record and Cambuur's ability to score in every away game so far. The single strongest data point is Zwolle conceding 4.00 goals per home match. The main risk is that both teams' attacking execution is erratic, so a low-scoring draw or a chaotic, high-scoring stalemate cannot be discounted.
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: Common Questions
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model gives Cambuur a 40% chance of winning, compared to 31% for Zwolle and 29% for the draw. Cambuur's stronger attack and Zwolle's poor home defence are the key factors.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, with Cambuur scoring in every away match and Zwolle conceding in all home games. However, Zwolle have failed to score in two of their last five, so there's still a 38% chance at least one side blanks.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, the model estimates a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams' matches averaging above 3.5 goals per game and over 2.5 landing in 71% (Zwolle) and 86% (Cambuur) of their fixtures this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.