Peterborough vs Notts County Predictions
League One · England
Peterborough
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Notts County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Peterborough vs Notts County: Match Preview
Peterborough sit 23rd after seven rounds, having managed just one league win and the division's lowest goals-for tally. Their home form (1W, 1D, 2L, 3 GF, 5 GA) mirrors their overall struggles, with only a single clean sheet and a recent 0-2 defeat to Doncaster. Notts County, only marginally better in 20th, have been hard to beat on the road (three away draws from four) but have not yet claimed an away win, and their attack has also faltered with just seven goals in seven matches.
The matchup is defined by low attacking output and defensive frailty on both sides. Peterborough's last five league games average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, while Notts County's away defence concedes 1.5 per game. Both teams have failed to score in two of their last five, and neither has kept more than one clean sheet all season. The over 2.5 goals rate is 42.9% for Peterborough and 28.6% for Notts County, suggesting a cautious, low-scoring contest is more likely than a shootout. Set-piece data shows Peterborough averaging 5.4 corners per game in their last five, while Notts County are lower at 3.6, but neither side stands out for set-piece threat.
Given the statistical shape, the model projects a tight, low-scoring game with a high probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with neither side's attack convincing enough to tilt the balance. The distribution of rates and the head-to-head history (six Peterborough wins, three draws in the last nine) reinforce the expectation of a narrow margin either way, but the lack of attacking punch on both sides makes a stalemate most probable.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Peterborough vs Notts County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Peterborough vs Notts County that most previews miss.
- 1Peterborough's home games average just 2.0 total goals, with only 14% clean sheets at home.
- 2Notts County have drawn 75% of their away matches this season, conceding first in three of four.
- 3Across the last nine H2H meetings, Notts County have never won, with four matches finishing as draws.
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The Case For This Peterborough vs Notts County Prediction
Both Peterborough and Notts County enter this fixture with modest attacking outputs and defensive vulnerabilities, as reflected in their season-long scoring rates (Peterborough 0.57 goals for, 1.71 against; Notts County 1.00 for, 1.29 against). Both sides have struggled for wins, with only one victory apiece after seven matches, and their respective home and away records offer no clear edge. The statistical shape of this match points towards a low-scoring, competitive contest, with neither attack consistently outpacing the other's defensive frailties.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Peterborough average just 0.57 goals scored per league game, the lowest in the division.
Defence
- →Notts County have drawn three of four away matches, conceding 1.5 goals per away game.
- →Neither side has kept more than one clean sheet all season, but both have failed to score in two of their last five.
🚩 Peterborough vs Notts County Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Peterborough and 4.7 for Notts County, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Peterborough and Notts County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Peterborough vs Notts County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Peterboroughlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts Countylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Peterborough's recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five league matches and two home defeats in that span. Notts County have also struggled, failing to win any of their last four league games before a cup victory, and are yet to claim an away win this season. Both sides have found goals hard to come by, and neither carries significant momentum into this fixture.
Peterborough vs Notts County — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 61% avg
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Peterborough vs Notts County
Peterborough have a commanding record in this head-to-head, unbeaten in the last nine meetings with six wins and three draws. Notts County have not beaten Peterborough away in over a decade, and four of the last nine clashes have ended level. Scorelines are often narrow, with three 4-3 thrillers but also two goalless draws.
Peterborough vs Notts County Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
6
Peterborough wins
3
Draws
0
Notts County wins
Things to Watch: Peterborough vs Notts County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is not possible.
- ⚠️Recent form sample size is small; season-long rates drive the model.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data impacting lineups, but starting XIs are unknown.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Peterborough 1–1 Notts CountyA 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome, driven by both sides' poor scoring rates and high draw frequency in Notts County's away fixtures. The single strongest data point is Peterborough's league-low 0.57 goals per game, which limits their ceiling even at home. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if either defence collapses early, opening up a match that otherwise profiles as tight and cautious.
Peterborough vs Notts County: Common Questions
Who will win Peterborough vs Notts County?
The model gives Peterborough a 32% chance of victory, Notts County a 29% chance, and the draw is most likely at 39%. Both sides have struggled for wins, and Notts County have drawn three of four away matches.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Notts County?
The probability for both teams to score is 49%, with both sides failing to score in two of their last five matches. Defensive frailties are present, but neither attack is prolific.
Is this likely to be a high-scoring match?
The model estimates just a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging under 1.3 goals scored per game. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Peterborough vs Notts County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.