Plymouth vs Burton Albion Predictions
League One · England
Plymouth
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Burton Albion
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Burton Albion Edge Plymouth with Second-Half Strike at Home Park
Burton Albion snatched a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Plymouth at Home Park, with a decisive goal in the 70th minute proving the difference in a tightly contested League One clash. Despite enjoying the lion's share of possession (57%) and outshooting their visitors 13 to 10, Plymouth were left frustrated by Burton's resolute defending and clinical finishing. Both sides created chances but struggled to break the deadlock until Burton capitalized midway through the second half. The match saw six yellow cards in total as tempers flared and both teams battled for control, but ultimately it was Burton's tactical discipline and efficiency in front of goal that secured all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
70' — Goal
Kain Adom scores for Burton Albion, breaking the deadlock.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Three yellow cards apiece for both teams as tempers flared.
Final Whistle' — Full Time
Burton Albion secure all three points with a disciplined defensive display.
Plymouth
Plymouth controlled much of the game, dictating play with 57% possession and registering 13 shots. However, only 3 of those efforts tested Burton's goalkeeper, highlighting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. The home side pressed for an equalizer after falling behind but were unable to convert their dominance into goals, often stymied by Burton's compact defensive line. Defensively, Plymouth kept Burton largely at bay except for the pivotal moment that led to the goal. The hosts' frustration was evident in their 11 fouls and three yellow cards, as they struggled to break down the visitors' resistance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burton Albion
Burton Albion executed their game plan to perfection, absorbing pressure and striking decisively on the break. With just 43% possession and 10 shots (3 on target), they made their opportunities count, netting the game's only goal in the 70th minute. Their defensive organization was impressive, limiting Plymouth to few clear-cut chances despite sustained pressure. The visitors also showed discipline, conceding only 4 fouls and matching Plymouth's physicality with three yellow cards of their own. Burton's ability to stay compact and hit on the counter ultimately earned them a valuable away win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Plymouth set up in a classic 4-4-2, seeking to control the midfield and stretch Burton's back three. Their wide play and midfield pressing allowed them to dominate possession, but they struggled to create high-quality chances, often running into a well-organized Burton defense. The lack of width in the final third and limited penetration from full-backs contributed to their attacking frustrations. Burton Albion's 3-4-2-1 formation provided defensive solidity, with wing-backs dropping deep to form a back five when out of possession. This compactness frustrated Plymouth and allowed Burton to absorb pressure before springing forward on the counter. The visitors' tactical discipline and timely substitutions helped preserve their lead in the closing stages.
Turning Point
Kain Adom's 70th-minute goal, which shifted momentum decisively in Burton Albion's favor.
Man of the Match
Kain Adom
Scored the match-winning goal and provided a constant threat on the break.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion: Match Preview
Plymouth arrive in solid form, sitting 7th after six matches with three wins and a +2 goal difference. Their recent run includes back-to-back league victories, most recently a 3-0 home win over Barnsley, and they have scored multiple goals in three of their last four. Burton Albion, 11th in the table, have been inconsistent—winning only once in their last four and coming off a heavy 0-3 defeat at Oxford United. Both sides are close in points, but Plymouth's home record (2W-0D-1L) is notably stronger than Burton's away (1W-0D-2L).
The data points to a match shaped by attacking intent and defensive frailties. Plymouth average 2.0 goals per home game and 12.4 shots per match over their last five, while Burton's away defence has conceded six in three and their clean sheet rate is 0% for the season. Both teams have failed to score just once in their last five league outings, and Burton's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 83% of cases. Set-piece data shows Plymouth averaging 5.4 corners per match recently, which could give them an edge against a Burton side conceding an average of three corners away.
The model expects Plymouth's home attack to capitalise on Burton's defensive weaknesses, with the most likely scenario being a 2-1 home win. However, both sides' high BTTS rates (Plymouth 40%, Burton 67% in last five) and Burton's ability to score in four of their last five suggest the visitors can contribute. The likeliest deviation would be a higher-scoring draw if Plymouth's defence fails to contain Burton's mobile front line.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Plymouth vs Burton Albion that most previews miss.
- 1Burton's matches have produced a league-high 83% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
- 2Plymouth have scored first in each of their last three home games against Burton Albion.
- 3Burton have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive away league matches.
Who do you think wins: Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Plymouth vs Burton Albion(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average at least 1.67 goals scored per game this season, and Burton's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 83% of fixtures, with Plymouth at 50%. Recent form supports a high goal environment.
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Match Result: Plymouth Win
Plymouth have won 5 of the last 10 H2H meetings and boast a 2W-0D-1L home record, while Burton have lost 2 of 3 away and not kept a clean sheet all season.
Read more ↓
More League One Predictions
The Case For This Plymouth vs Burton Albion Prediction
Statistically, this is a fixture tilted towards goals and home advantage. Both Plymouth and Burton Albion have produced above-average scoring rates (1.67 per game each), but Burton's defensive record away (2.0 conceded per away match) and their 0% clean sheet rate signal a likely open contest. Plymouth's more robust defensive numbers at Home Park (just 1 goal conceded per home match) and a strong H2H record at this venue further reinforce their edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Burton have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 6 league matches this season.
- →Plymouth's home attack averages 2.0 goals per match, while Burton concede 2.0 per away game.
Match Context
- →83% of Burton's matches have featured over 2.5 goals, the highest in the division.
🚩 Plymouth vs Burton Albion Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Plymouth and 4 for Burton Albion, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Plymouth and Burton Albion Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Plymouthlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burton Albionlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Plymouth have built momentum with three wins in their last four league matches, including a 3-0 home victory over Barnsley and a 2-0 shutout against Bradford. Burton Albion's recent form is patchier, alternating results and conceding three at Oxford last time out, but they did net four against AFC Wimbledon earlier this month. Both teams have shown attacking threat but defensive inconsistency, with Plymouth trending upwards and Burton struggling on the road.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Plymouth have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and four of the last five at Home Park. The last two encounters in Plymouth ended 3-0 and 1-0 to the hosts, and Burton have not won away at Plymouth in this span. Draws are not uncommon, but the home side's edge is clear in both results and clean sheets.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Plymouth wins
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion wins
Things to Watch: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be computed.
- ⚠️Sample sizes are still small (6 matches) and early-season volatility remains.
- ⚠️No injury data, but lineups are not confirmed, so late team news could impact probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Plymouth 2–1 Burton AlbionPlymouth are projected to edge this contest 2-1, primarily due to their consistent home scoring rate and Burton's ongoing defensive issues away from home. The strongest data point is Burton's 0% clean sheet rate and 2.0 goals conceded per away match. The main risk is Plymouth's own defensive volatility—if Burton find early space, the match could swing towards a high-scoring draw.
Plymouth vs Burton Albion: Common Questions
Who will win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth are favoured with a 48% win probability, compared to 23% for Burton Albion and 29% for the draw. The model leans to a 2-1 home win, citing Plymouth's strong home attack and Burton's weak away defence.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
There's a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by both teams' 1.67 goals scored per game and Burton's 83% over 2.5 match rate this season. Recent form and defensive numbers suggest a high goal environment.
Is both teams to score likely in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Yes, both teams to score is rated at 56%, with both sides failing to score only once each in their last five and Burton's defence yet to keep a clean sheet all season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Plymouth vs Burton Albion: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.