QPR vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
QPR
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 2 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: QPR or Draw
Match Result
8.3/10Late Derby Double Stuns QPR in Dramatic Loftus Road Comeback
Derby County staged a remarkable late turnaround to snatch a 3-2 victory over QPR at Loftus Road, overturning a deficit with two goals in the final 15 minutes. QPR had looked in control for much of the contest, leading through first-half and early second-half strikes, but Derby’s resilience shone through as they capitalized on their limited chances to claim all three points. QPR’s dominance in possession and attacking intent was evident, but a clinical Derby side made the most of their rare opportunities, with goals in the 76th and 88th minutes sealing a dramatic win. The match was a tale of contrasting styles: QPR’s proactive, high-possession approach versus Derby’s disciplined, counter-attacking game plan.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Harvey Vale opens the scoring for QPR, finishing a well-worked move.
25' — Goal
Derby equalize through a swift counter, showing their clinical edge.
55' — Goal
Paul Smyth restores QPR's lead with a composed finish.
76' — Goal
Sammie Szmodics levels for Derby, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
88' — Goal
Carlton Morris completes Derby's comeback with a dramatic late winner.
QPR
QPR impressed for large spells, dictating play with 58% possession and firing 14 shots, 7 of which tested the Derby keeper. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed them to stretch the game and create numerous openings, resulting in goals in the 13th and 55th minutes. However, lapses in concentration at the back and an inability to kill the game off proved costly. Despite their attacking threat and control in midfield, QPR struggled to manage the game defensively in the closing stages. A lack of composure under late pressure and missed chances ultimately allowed Derby to turn the tide.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby
Derby County displayed remarkable efficiency and resilience, converting 3 of just 2 shots on target from a total of 2 attempts—a testament to their clinical edge and opportunism. Largely on the back foot, Derby’s 4-2-3-1 formation focused on compactness and quick transitions, withstanding QPR’s pressure before launching decisive attacks late on. Their persistence paid off spectacularly, as they scored in the 25th, 76th, and 88th minutes to overturn deficits twice. Derby’s ability to stay organized defensively and strike at key moments underlined their tactical discipline and mental strength.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
QPR lined up in a classic 4-4-2, seeking to control the midfield and use their width to stretch Derby’s defensive lines. Their approach yielded significant territorial advantage and frequent forays into the final third, as evidenced by their 58% possession and 14 total shots. However, their high line was exposed on the counter, particularly as they pushed for a third goal. Derby’s 4-2-3-1 was compact and disciplined, with the double pivot shielding the back four and the attacking trio ready to spring forward. Their limited attacking output belied a ruthless efficiency, and late tactical tweaks—likely introducing fresh legs and shifting to a more attacking posture—paid dividends as they capitalized on QPR’s fatigue and defensive errors.
Turning Point
Sammie Szmodics’ 76th-minute equalizer shifted momentum decisively, setting the stage for Derby’s late winner.
Man of the Match
Carlton Morris
Led the line tirelessly and delivered the decisive 88th-minute winner to cap Derby’s comeback.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
QPR vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: QPR vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: QPR vs Derby(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: QPR or Draw
QPR are unbeaten in 5, have strong home scoring (2.4 avg last 5), and Derby have a mixed away record. The model probability (0.72) for 1X is high given QPR's form and H2H edge at Loftus Road.
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BTTS: Yes
QPR have seen BTTS in 4 of last 5, Derby have failed to score in none of last 5, and both teams' defences have vulnerabilities. Model BTTS probability is 0.62.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
QPR's matches go over 2.5 goals in 61.9% of the season, and recent attacking output is high. Derby also average 1.45 scored per game.
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This QPR vs Derby Prediction
This is a mid-table clash with both teams still mathematically in the playoff hunt. QPR come in with strong momentum (unbeaten in 5, 3 wins), scoring freely at home and showing improved defensive solidity. Derby are solid away but inconsistent, with a recent loss at Southampton and a tendency to concede. Both teams have attacking threats and a history of open games. Expect a competitive, open match with both sides likely to score, but QPR's home form and recent confidence give them a slight edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Derby have 9 away wins but also 9 away losses; recent form LWLWW
- →QPR have won 5 of last 10 H2H, including 4-0 at home in 2025
Attack
- →QPR unbeaten in last 5 (form: DDWWW), scoring 2.4 goals/game in that span
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- →QPR home matches over 2.5 goals 61.9% of the season
- →BTTS in 4 of QPR's last 5, Derby failed to score in none of last 5
🚩 QPR vs Derby Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for QPR and 4.6 for Derby, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 41%.
How QPR and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
QPR vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
QPRlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Derbylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
QPR vs Derby — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: QPR vs Derby
QPR vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
QPR wins
1
Draws
4
Derby wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: QPR vs Derby
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: QPR vs Derby
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value/edges cannot be calculated
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (e.g., shots/corners for some games) may affect precision
- ⚠️Championship is highly competitive and unpredictable, especially late in season
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for QPR vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.