QPR vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
QPR
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8/10QPR Run Riot at Loftus Road with 4-1 Triumph Over Derby
QPR delivered a scintillating attacking display at Loftus Road, overpowering Derby County 4-1 in a lively Championship encounter. The hosts raced into a commanding lead with goals in the 18th, 22nd, and 45th minutes, effectively putting the contest beyond Derby before half-time. Despite Derby’s marginal edge in possession (52%) and a late consolation goal in the 90th minute, they struggled to match QPR’s clinical edge in front of goal. Derby created more chances overall, registering 15 shots to QPR’s 9, but the home side’s efficiency was telling, with 7 of their attempts hitting the target and 4 finding the net. The match saw its share of physicality, with both sides collecting multiple yellow cards, but it was QPR’s sharpness in transition and incisiveness in the final third that proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
4 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
18' — Goal
QPR open the scoring, seizing early momentum.
22' — Goal
QPR double their lead, capitalizing on Derby’s defensive lapse.
45' — Goal
QPR make it 3-0 before half-time, effectively sealing the contest.
68' — Goal
QPR add a fourth, putting the result beyond doubt.
90' — Goal
Derby score a late consolation, but it’s too little, too late.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up multiple bookings in a physical contest.
QPR
QPR were ruthless in attack, capitalizing on their chances with remarkable efficiency. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided balance and width, allowing them to exploit Derby’s defensive frailties and surge into a 3-0 lead by the interval. The midfield duo of N. Madsen and G. Kamara provided a solid base, while the attacking trio behind Rayan Jawad Kolli consistently found pockets of space to create danger. While QPR had slightly less possession (48%), they made it count, converting 4 of their 7 shots on target. The defense held firm for most of the match, only conceding a late goal when the result was already beyond doubt.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby
Derby started brightly and enjoyed more possession (52%), but their defense was repeatedly exposed by QPR’s incisive attacks. Despite firing 15 shots and forcing 6 saves from the QPR goalkeeper, their finishing lacked the precision of their hosts. The midfield trio struggled to contain QPR’s movement, and the back line was breached too easily in the first half. A late goal in the 90th minute provided scant consolation for Paul Warne’s side, who were unable to turn their territorial advantage into meaningful pressure until the game was out of reach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but QPR’s midfield pairing of N. Madsen and G. Kamara provided greater stability and allowed their attacking trio to flourish. The home side pressed intelligently, forcing turnovers and breaking quickly, which led directly to their first-half goals. QPR’s full-backs also contributed by providing width, stretching Derby’s defense and creating space centrally. Derby, despite enjoying more possession, struggled to penetrate QPR’s organized shape. Their midfield was often bypassed in transition, and their defensive line was caught out by QPR’s movement between the lines. Substitutions made little impact as the game was largely settled by the hour mark, though Derby’s persistence was rewarded with a late goal.
Turning Point
QPR’s quickfire double in the 18th and 22nd minutes shattered Derby’s confidence and set the tone for the rest of the match.
Man of the Match
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Led the line superbly, relentlessly pressing Derby’s defense and playing a pivotal role in QPR’s attacking dominance.
QPR vs Derby: Match Preview
QPR enter this contest sixth in the Championship, unbeaten in four and with just one loss all season, but three consecutive draws have stalled their momentum. Derby, sitting 22nd, have just one win from eight and a -7 goal difference, with their only recent bright spot a 2-0 win at Portsmouth. The gap in league position reflects not just results, but a clear difference in defensive solidity and attacking output.
QPR's home record reads one win, two draws, one loss (4-4 goal difference), and their last five show a defensive discipline—just one goal conceded in the first half, three in the second—paired with moderate attacking numbers (17.6 shots, 4.2 on target per game). Derby's away attack is blunt (1 goal per game, 12 shots, 3.6 on target), and their defence concedes 1.5 per away match. Both sides average over 7 corners per game, suggesting set-piece opportunities, but Derby's clean sheet rate is just 12.5%, and they have failed to score in two of their last five.
The model expects a low-tempo match, with QPR's defensive structure limiting Derby's chances and both teams struggling to create clear openings. The most likely scenario is a draw, with the 1-1 scoreline emerging as the modal outcome from the underlying rates. Goals are more likely after the break, but neither side projects to dominate, and set pieces may prove decisive if the deadlock is broken.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
QPR vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind QPR vs Derby that most previews miss.
- 1QPR and Derby average a combined 15 corners per game over their last five matches, far above the league mean.
- 2QPR have conceded just one first-half goal in their last five, while Derby have scored only two first-half goals in the same span.
- 3Only three of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in a draw, but five have finished with exactly one goal separating the sides.
Who do you think wins: QPR vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: QPR vs Derby(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average under 1.3 goals scored per game and have drawn three of their last five combined; the 1-1 is the modal outcome by Poisson rates.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
QPR concede just 0.88 per game and Derby score only 0.88, with both teams seeing under 2.5 in over 47% of matches; shot volumes are moderate, suggesting a low-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
Corners: Over 10.5
QPR and Derby average a combined 15 corners per game over their last five, well above the league mean; tactical patterns suggest sustained crossing and set-piece play.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This QPR vs Derby Prediction
This fixture pits a defensively sound QPR side against a Derby team struggling for output and results, with the underlying rates pointing towards a low-scoring, tightly contested match where neither attack is likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Derby's away attack: 1 goal per away game, but only 0.88 overall
- →Both teams average fewer than 1.3 goals scored per match
Defence
- →QPR's defensive record: 0.88 goals conceded per game, 25% clean sheet rate
🚩 QPR vs Derby Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.7 corners for QPR and 4.8 for Derby, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 60%.
How QPR and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
QPR vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
QPRlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
QPR have drawn three straight, showing defensive resilience but limited attacking punch, with just one win in their last five. Derby have lost three of their last five and sit 22nd, struggling to find consistency at both ends and averaging just 0.8 goals scored per game over that span.
QPR vs Derby — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: QPR vs Derby
The last ten meetings have been tightly contested, with QPR winning five and Derby four, and only one draw. Recent encounters at Loftus Road have favoured Derby, who won 3-2 in April 2026, but the overall pattern is one of narrow margins and fluctuating scorelines.
QPR vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
QPR wins
1
Draws
4
Derby wins
Things to Watch: QPR vs Derby
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value edges cannot be calculated
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small (5 matches), so rate-based estimates carry some variance
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown at prediction time
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
QPR 1–1 DerbyThe numbers point to a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the most likely outcome given both teams' scoring rates and QPR's defensive record (0.88 conceded per game). The single strongest data point is Derby's inability to consistently threaten away from home (just four goals in four away games). The main risk is that Derby's defensive frailty (1.75 conceded per game) could allow QPR to edge it if they convert a higher share of their chances.
QPR vs Derby: Common Questions
Who will win QPR vs Derby?
QPR are marginal favourites with a 39% win probability, while Derby sit at 27% and the draw at 34%. The model expects a close contest, with a draw the most likely outcome based on both teams' current scoring and concession rates.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
The probability of both teams scoring is exactly 50%, reflecting QPR's solid defence (25% clean sheets) and Derby's inconsistent attack (failed to score in two of last five). The 1-1 scoreline is the single most likely result by the model.
How many goals will there be in QPR vs Derby?
The model gives a 53% probability to under 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of at least two goals, with both teams averaging under 1.3 goals scored per game. A low-scoring match is expected, with 1-1 the most likely outcome.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for QPR vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.