Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Remo
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chapecoense-sc
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.8(+10% edge)
Recommended Bets: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc: Match Preview
Remo and Chapecoense-sc approach this fixture with survival on the line, sitting 19th and 20th in Serie A respectively. Remo have managed just one win in their last five, but Chapecoense-sc are in even worse shape, having lost four of their last five and holding the league's worst defensive record. Both sides have drawn heavily this season (Remo: 11, Chapecoense-sc: 9), and their head-to-head history is similarly balanced, with two of the last three meetings ending in draws.
From a statistical perspective, the matchup is defined by defensive frailty and a lack of clean sheets. Remo average 1.29 goals scored and conceded per home game, while Chapecoense-sc concede 1.88 per away fixture and score just 0.65. Both teams have averaged 0.8 goals scored in their last five, but Chapecoense-sc’s 2.2 goals conceded per game in that span is a glaring weakness. Set pieces could play a role, with Remo generating over six corners per match recently, and cards are likely to be above average given both sides’ discipline records.
The model expects a competitive, open match with both teams likely to score. Remo’s stronger home record and Chapecoense-sc’s away struggles suggest a slight edge for the hosts, but the draw remains a live outcome given both teams’ propensity for stalemates and the balanced H2H record. A 2-1 home win is the most probable scoreline, but the statistical value sits with the draw.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Remo vs Chapecoense-sc that most previews miss.
- 1Remo have scored and conceded exactly 22 goals in 17 home matches, a perfect symmetry that points to both teams finding the net.
- 2Chapecoense-sc have kept just two clean sheets all season (6.1%), and none in their last five matches.
- 3The last two head-to-heads at Remo’s ground both finished 1-1, matching the high draw rates for both sides this season.
Who do you think wins: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.93
The model assigns a 29% probability to the draw, compared to the bookmaker's implied 26.3% (odds 3.8), producing a positive expected value. Both sides have drawn 11 and 9 times respectively this season, and their last two head-to-heads at this venue ended level.
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The Case For This Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
Remo and Chapecoense-sc meet in a bottom-of-the-table clash where both sides are desperate for points to escape the drop zone. Remo have managed just one win in their last five (form: LWLDD) and sit 19th, but Chapecoense-sc are in even deeper trouble, bottom with only four wins all season and a -35 goal difference. Both teams have struggled for clean sheets, with Remo at 11.8% and Chapecoense-sc at just 6.1% across the campaign. Statistically, this fixture profiles as open at both ends. Remo average 1.29 goals for and 1.29 against per home game, while Chapecoense-sc concede 1.88 per away match and score just 0.65. Both teams are averaging 0.8 goals scored over their last five, but Chapecoense-sc’s defence has been especially porous, shipping 2.2 per game in that stretch. Corners are likely: Remo have averaged 6.2 per game in their last five, with Chapecoense-sc at 4.2. Cards should also be above average, with the sides combining for nearly four bookings per match recently. Given the attacking frailties and defensive lapses on both sides, the model expects a match with goals but not a shootout. Remo’s home edge and Chapecoense-sc’s poor away record (one win in 17) tilt the balance, but both teams’ tendency to draw (Remo: 11, Chapecoense-sc: 9 this season) and the H2H record (two 1-1 draws in the last three) mean a close contest is likeliest. The most probable outcome is a narrow 2-1 home win, but the draw holds the best value.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chapecoense-sc have conceded 68 goals in 33 matches (2.06 per game), the worst defensive record in the league.
- →Remo have scored and conceded exactly 22 goals each at home, highlighting their vulnerability and attacking intent.
Match Context
- →Remo have drawn 7 of 17 home matches and Chapecoense-sc have drawn 4 of 17 away.
🚩 Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Remo and 4.6 for Chapecoense-sc, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Remo and Chapecoense-sc Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Remolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Remo have taken five points from their last five matches (form: LWLDD), including a home win over Botafogo and a heavy defeat at Palmeiras. Chapecoense-sc have lost four of their last five (LLWLL), with their only recent win coming at home to Fluminense. Both sides have struggled for consistency and defensive solidity, but Remo’s home returns are marginally stronger.
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc
The last three meetings between Remo and Chapecoense-sc have produced one Remo win and two draws, with both matches at Remo’s ground finishing 1-1. This pattern aligns with both teams’ high draw rates and suggests a closely contested fixture.
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Remo wins
2
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc
The model’s biggest edge is on the draw in the 1x2 market, where the probability (29%) exceeds the bookmaker’s implied 26.3% (odds 3.8). Other markets such as BTTS and under 2.5 goals show negative edges, indicating less value relative to the posted odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Remo vs Chapecoense-sc
- ⚠️Small sample size in head-to-head (only three recent meetings).
- ⚠️Both teams have erratic recent form and motivation may fluctuate given league position.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but late lineup changes could impact expected output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Remo 2–1 Chapecoense-scThe model projects a 2-1 win for Remo, driven by Chapecoense-sc’s league-worst defensive record (2.06 goals conceded per game) and Remo’s marginally better home returns. The strongest data point is Chapecoense-sc’s solitary away win in 17 attempts. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if both attacks continue to underperform, resulting in another draw as seen in the recent H2H meetings.
Remo vs Chapecoense-sc: Common Questions
Who will win Remo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Remo are favoured by the model with a 52% probability of victory, compared to 29% for the draw and 19% for Chapecoense-sc. Remo’s stronger home record and Chapecoense-sc’s poor away form are the key factors.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Chapecoense-sc?
There is a 57% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities (Remo: 1.68 conceded per game, Chapecoense-sc: 2.06) and recent matches where both have found the net in three of their last five.
Is there value in betting the draw for Remo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Yes, the draw is priced at 3.8 (implied 26.3%) while the model estimates a 29% chance, providing a positive expected value. Both teams have high draw rates and the last two H2H at this ground ended level.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Remo vs Chapecoense-sc: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.