São Bernardo vs CRB Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
São Bernardo
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
CRB
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: São Bernardo vs CRB
São Bernardo vs CRB: Match Preview
São Bernardo return to Estadio Primeiro de Maio sitting 12th, four points behind CRB, but their home record has been a persistent drag: just three wins from fifteen, offset by six draws and a -1 goal difference. Recent form is mixed but improving, with three wins in their last five and no failures to score. CRB, eighth in the table, have been inconsistent away from home, splitting their 15 road matches evenly between wins, draws, and losses, and conceding 24 times on their travels.
Statistically, this is a clash of near equals. São Bernardo’s attack averages 1.38 goals per game (1.07 conceded), while CRB are slightly more prolific at 1.45 scored but leakier at the back, conceding 1.41 per match. Both sides’ last five matches show similar output—1.4 goals scored per game—though São Bernardo have been more secure defensively in that span, conceding just 0.8 per match and keeping three clean sheets. First-half goals have been rare for both, with São Bernardo netting just two and CRB three in their last five, suggesting a slow-burning tactical battle. Set pieces may play a role: both teams average over five corners per game recently.
Given these rates and the lack of a clear home or away edge, the model projects a low-scoring, closely contested match. São Bernardo’s tendency to draw at home and CRB’s away volatility point to a high draw probability, with 1-1 emerging as the most likely scoreline. The main risk lies in CRB’s occasional defensive collapses on the road, which could open the door to a higher-scoring outcome if São Bernardo capitalise.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
São Bernardo vs CRB Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind São Bernardo vs CRB that most previews miss.
- 1São Bernardo have drawn 6 of their 15 home matches, the highest draw rate among the top 12 in Serie B.
- 2CRB’s away matches average 2.73 total goals, well above the league norm, with 9 of 15 finishing over 2.5.
- 3São Bernardo have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, but only 4 in 15 home games all season.
Who do you think wins: São Bernardo vs CRB?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: São Bernardo vs CRB(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.38 and 1.45 goals scored per game, and São Bernardo have drawn six of fifteen at home, suggesting a high draw probability and a likely low-scoring stalemate.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
São Bernardo home matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 55% of games, and CRB have failed to score in two of their last five, pointing to a moderate-scoring environment.
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Double Chance: São Bernardo or Draw
São Bernardo's home record is poor for wins but strong for avoiding defeat (9/15 unbeaten), and CRB's away record is balanced (6W 3D 6L), making home/draw the most probable double chance outcome.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This São Bernardo vs CRB Prediction
This fixture is shaped by two sides with nearly identical scoring rates and defensive records, but São Bernardo's home struggles and CRB's unconvincing away defence flatten the edge for either team. The statistical expectation is a contest with moderate shot volume and a high likelihood of a stalemate, with both teams averaging just under 1.4 goals scored per match and conceding at similar rates. The likeliest scenario is a balanced game where neither side can fully impose themselves, leading to a probable draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average between 1.38 and 1.45 goals scored per match across the season.
Defence
- →CRB have conceded 24 goals in 15 away matches, averaging 1.6 per game.
Match Context
- →São Bernardo's home record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses with a -1 goal difference.
🚩 São Bernardo vs CRB Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for São Bernardo and 5.6 for CRB, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How São Bernardo and CRB Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
São Bernardo vs CRB Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
São Bernardolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CRBlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
São Bernardo have found some momentum with three wins in their last five, including back-to-back victories and no failures to score in that stretch. CRB’s form is more erratic, alternating wins and losses, and their last five include two defeats and no clean sheets, but also two home wins with multiple goals scored.
São Bernardo vs CRB — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +High-volume attack — 23 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: São Bernardo vs CRB
Only one prior meeting exists between these sides, a 3-2 São Bernardo away win earlier this season. The high scoreline stands out against both teams’ typical defensive records, but is not enough to establish a trend.
São Bernardo vs CRB Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
São Bernardo wins
0
Draws
0
CRB wins
Things to Watch: São Bernardo vs CRB
- ⚠️Only one head-to-head meeting exists, limiting historical matchup insight.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and edge calculations are omitted.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results, raising draw and BTTS variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
São Bernardo 1–1 CRBA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by São Bernardo’s high home draw rate and both teams’ near-identical scoring averages. The likeliest deviation comes from CRB’s defensive volatility away from home, which could tip the balance if São Bernardo convert their chances with above-average efficiency.
São Bernardo vs CRB: Common Questions
Who will win São Bernardo vs CRB?
The model gives São Bernardo a 37% chance of victory, CRB a 27% chance, and a draw a 36% probability, reflecting both teams’ similar goal rates and São Bernardo’s tendency to draw at home.
Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs CRB?
There is a 53% probability of both teams scoring, supported by each averaging over 1.3 goals per game and CRB’s away defence conceding 24 times in 15 matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in São Bernardo vs CRB?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54% probability, with São Bernardo’s home matches going under in 55% of games and both sides showing moderate recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for São Bernardo vs CRB: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.