São Bernardo vs Londrina Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
São Bernardo
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
Londrina
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: São Bernardo Win
Match Result
7.4/10Londrina Strike Late to Stun São Bernardo in Serie B Thriller
Londrina came from behind to secure a hard-fought 2-1 victory over São Bernardo at the Estadio Primeiro de Maio, overturning a halftime deficit in a match brimming with attacking intent. The visitors struck first in the 10th minute, only for São Bernardo to level just before the break. Despite enjoying 59% possession, the hosts struggled to convert their dominance into clear chances, registering just one shot on target from 13 attempts. Londrina, by contrast, were clinical and purposeful, firing 7 shots on target from 18 efforts. Their resilience paid off in the 74th minute with a decisive goal, capping a performance that showcased both defensive discipline and attacking potency. São Bernardo pressed for an equalizer but were ultimately undone by Londrina's superior efficiency in the final third.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
10' — Goal
Londrina take an early lead with a well-worked move finished by their forward.
43' — Goal
São Bernardo level the score just before halftime, capitalizing on a rare clear chance.
74' — Goal
Londrina restore their advantage with a clinical strike, ultimately the match-winner.
Yellow Cards' — Discipline
São Bernardo receive 1 yellow; Londrina pick up 2, reflecting a competitive midfield battle.
São Bernardo
São Bernardo controlled the tempo for much of the match, boasting 59% possession and dictating play through the midfield. However, their inability to create clear-cut chances proved costly, as they managed just a solitary shot on target despite 13 attempts. A late first-half goal provided hope, but defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge up front left them vulnerable to Londrina's counterattacks. The hosts showed spirit and pressed forward in search of an equalizer after falling behind, but ultimately lacked the incisiveness needed to break down a well-organized Londrina defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Londrina
Londrina executed a disciplined and efficient game plan, conceding possession but maximizing their attacking opportunities. With 18 shots and 7 on target, they consistently threatened São Bernardo's goal, opening the scoring early and sealing the win with a composed finish in the 74th minute. Their defense absorbed pressure well, and the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt São Bernardo's rhythm. Despite conceding just before halftime, Londrina regrouped and showed impressive resilience, ultimately outlasting the hosts through clinical finishing and effective transitions.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
São Bernardo appeared to set up with a possession-based approach, seeking to control the midfield and dictate the game's rhythm. Their high share of the ball (59%) and relatively low foul count suggest a focus on patient buildup rather than aggressive pressing. However, their lack of penetration—evidenced by just one shot on target—highlighted issues in breaking down Londrina's compact defensive lines. Londrina, meanwhile, played with a more direct style, ceding possession but maximizing transitions and set-piece opportunities (6 corners). Their defensive block absorbed São Bernardo's pressure, while their forwards exploited spaces left behind, leading to a higher volume of meaningful shots and ultimately two well-taken goals.
Turning Point
Londrina's 74th-minute goal, which restored their lead and shifted the momentum decisively in their favor.
Man of the Match
Londrina Second Goal Scorer
Scored the crucial winning goal and consistently threatened São Bernardo's defense with direct play.
São Bernardo vs Londrina: Match Preview
São Bernardo enter this fixture 14th in Serie B, having taken just two home wins from 13 attempts, but their overall form is steadier than Londrina's, who sit 18th and have lost 9 of 13 away matches. São Bernardo's recent run (LDDLW) includes a 3-1 away win at Operario-PR but also a home defeat to Botafogo SP, while Londrina's last five (DLDLL) feature three games without scoring and only two points collected.
The statistical matchup tilts towards a low-scoring contest. São Bernardo's home games average 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded, while Londrina's away matches see them score just 1.08 and concede 1.69 per game. Londrina's attack has dried up recently (0.4 goals per last 5), and São Bernardo have kept things tight, with only one failed-to-score in their last five. Both sides average over 13 shots per match, but the conversion rates are modest, and the first half tends to be cagey (São Bernardo: 2 first-half goals in last 5, Londrina: 2).
Given these rates, the model expects São Bernardo to edge a narrow contest, likely decided by a single goal. The home side's more reliable attack and Londrina's travel struggles point to a 1-0 or 2-0 outcome, with under 2.5 goals the likeliest scenario. The main risk is São Bernardo's habit of drawing at home and the H2H tendency for stalemates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
São Bernardo vs Londrina Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind São Bernardo vs Londrina that most previews miss.
- 1Londrina have managed just 2 away wins in 13, conceding 22 goals in those matches (1.69 per game).
- 2São Bernardo's home matches have finished under 2.5 goals in 62% of games (8 of 13).
- 3Across the last five H2H meetings, three have ended in draws and four have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: São Bernardo vs Londrina?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: São Bernardo vs Londrina(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: São Bernardo Win
São Bernardo's home defensive record (1.15 conceded per home match) is superior to Londrina's away attack (1.08 scored per away), and Londrina have lost 9 of 13 away games with only 14 goals scored.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides trend under 2.5 goals: São Bernardo's home matches average 2.23 goals, Londrina's away 2.77, but recent attacking form is weak (Londrina 0.4 scored per last 5, São Bernardo 1.2).
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Londrina have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and São Bernardo have kept matches tight at home (20% clean sheet rate, but only 1 failed to score in last 5).
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This São Bernardo vs Londrina Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-scoring fixture between a São Bernardo side with a middling home record and a Londrina team that struggles badly on its travels. São Bernardo's home matches average just 2.23 goals, and Londrina's away attack is among the league's least productive, with only 14 goals in 13 away games and a run of three blanks in their last five. Expect a match where the home side's moderate attacking output is likely enough against a leaky Londrina away defence, but the overall goal ceiling is limited by both teams' recent attacking numbers.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →São Bernardo average 1.08 points per home game (2W 6D 5L), but Londrina have lost 9 of 13 away.
Attack
- →Londrina have scored only 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 and failed to score in 3 of those.
Defence
- →São Bernardo's last 5: 4 BTTS, but only 1 clean sheet; Londrina's last 5: 2 clean sheets, but only 2 BTTS.
🚩 São Bernardo vs Londrina Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for São Bernardo and 4.8 for Londrina, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How São Bernardo and Londrina Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
São Bernardo vs Londrina Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
São Bernardolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrinalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
São Bernardo's recent form is mixed, with just one win in their last five but only one match where they failed to score. Their home record is underwhelming, but they remain competitive in most games. Londrina, by contrast, are on a poor run with three losses and two draws in their last five, scoring only twice and failing to find the net in three matches.
São Bernardo vs Londrina — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: São Bernardo vs Londrina
The head-to-head record is balanced, with one win apiece and three draws in the last five meetings. Notably, three of those matches ended level, including a 0-0 and a 2-2 in São Bernardo. The most recent encounter saw São Bernardo win 3-1 away, but the overall pattern suggests tight, low-margin games.
São Bernardo vs Londrina Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
São Bernardo wins
3
Draws
2
Londrina wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: São Bernardo vs Londrina
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value calculations cannot be performed. Model probabilities suggest São Bernardo are stronger than their home win rate implies, while the under 2.5 goals market would be of interest if odds reflected the model's 60% probability. The draw is also a live risk given both teams' season-long tendencies.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: São Bernardo vs Londrina
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent home/away results, and São Bernardo's home win rate is low.
- ⚠️Recent H2H matches have produced several draws, including 0-0 and 2-2, so the draw probability may be understated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
São Bernardo 1–0 LondrinaThe model calls this for São Bernardo by a single goal, with 1-0 the most probable scoreline. The strongest data point is Londrina's away record: 9 losses in 13 and only 14 goals scored. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if São Bernardo's low home win rate (just 2 from 13) and the H2H draw trend repeat, resulting in another stalemate.
São Bernardo vs Londrina: Common Questions
Who will win São Bernardo vs Londrina?
São Bernardo are favoured with a 47% win probability, while Londrina's chances are just 21% and the draw is rated at 32%. This is driven by Londrina's poor away record (2W 2D 9L) and São Bernardo's steadier form.
Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Londrina?
No is more likely, with a 63% probability for at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Londrina have failed to score in three of their last five, and São Bernardo's home matches are often low-scoring.
How many goals will be scored in São Bernardo vs Londrina?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 60% probability, reflecting São Bernardo's home average of 2.23 goals per match and Londrina's recent attacking struggles (0.4 goals per last 5 games).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for São Bernardo vs Londrina: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.