São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
São Bernardo
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Vila Nova
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: Match Preview
São Bernardo approach this fixture mid-table, sitting 12th with 46 points from 33 matches, and have shown patchy home form—just four wins from sixteen at Estadio Primeiro de Maio. Their recent five-match run (DLWDW) includes a 3-1 home win over CRB and two draws, but also a defeat at Sport Recife. Vila Nova, top of Serie B with 61 points, arrive on a five-match unbeaten streak (WDWWW) and have not conceded in any of those games, underlining their defensive credentials as the league's best travellers by points but with a modest away scoring rate.
The statistical profile is clear: São Bernardo average 1.19 goals for and 1.13 against at home, while Vila Nova's away record is 0.88 scored and 1.18 conceded per match. Vila Nova's last five have all finished under 2.5 goals, with just one goal conceded in their last six away games. São Bernardo's last five average 2.4 total goals, but only one of those saw more than two goals. Both teams' last five show more second-half goals (São Bernardo: 6 of 7, Vila Nova: 1 of 6), and neither side is prolific from set pieces, though Vila Nova's 5.4 corners per game is notable.
Given the defensive rates and both teams' low over 2.5 goal percentages (São Bernardo 48%, Vila Nova 33%), the model projects a low-scoring contest with a high draw probability. The most likely outcomes are 1-1 or a single-goal win either way, with the match likely to be decided by a single moment rather than sustained attacking pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind São Bernardo vs Vila Nova that most previews miss.
- 1Vila Nova have not conceded a single goal in their last five matches, keeping five consecutive clean sheets.
- 2São Bernardo have drawn 38% of their home matches this season (6 of 16), the highest draw rate among the top half of the table.
- 3Only one of Vila Nova's last seven away games has featured more than two goals, with an average total of 1.43 goals per game in that span.
Who do you think wins: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
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Where the Model Sees Value: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average under 1.4 goals scored per game and Vila Nova have kept five straight clean sheets, with only 33% of their matches going over 2.5 goals this season.
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Match Result: Draw
São Bernardo have drawn six of sixteen at home and Vila Nova four of seventeen away; both sides show defensive solidity and low goal averages, supporting a high draw probability.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-goal, tightly matched contest: São Bernardo's home record (1.19 scored, 1.13 conceded per game) and Vila Nova's away record (0.88 scored, 1.18 conceded) point to a narrow margin. Vila Nova's recent run of five consecutive clean sheets and São Bernardo's average of just 1.4 goals scored in their last five further reinforce the likelihood of a cagey encounter. The draw looms large given both sides' season-long tendency to share points when neither can break through.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →São Bernardo have drawn six of sixteen home matches and average 1.19 goals scored at home.
Defence
- →Vila Nova have kept five consecutive clean sheets and conceded just 0.94 per game all season.
Match Context
- →Only 33% of Vila Nova's games and 48% of São Bernardo's have gone over 2.5 goals.
🚩 São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for São Bernardo and 4 for Vila Nova, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How São Bernardo and Vila Nova Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
São Bernardolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Novalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
São Bernardo's recent form is mixed, with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. Vila Nova, by contrast, are in peak form with four wins and a draw in their last five, and have not conceded in that stretch, highlighting their defensive solidity and momentum at the top of Serie B.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
- +5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
The only previous meeting this season saw Vila Nova win 2-1 at home, but with just one encounter, no strong trend emerges. Both teams found the net in that match, but Vila Nova's current run of clean sheets suggests a repeat is less likely.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
São Bernardo wins
0
Draws
1
Vila Nova wins
Things to Watch: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
- ⚠️Only one previous head-to-head, so historical matchup data is limited.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so value edges cannot be precisely calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' attack rates are modest, but a single early goal could open the match up beyond the statistical mean.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
São Bernardo 1–1 Vila NovaThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, anchored by Vila Nova's exceptional defensive run—five straight clean sheets—and both teams' season-long trend towards low-scoring, closely fought matches. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if São Bernardo's attack, which has produced three goals in a recent home outing, finds an early breakthrough and forces Vila Nova to open up.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: Common Questions
Who will win São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
The model gives Vila Nova a 35% chance to win, São Bernardo a 27% chance, and the draw is most likely at 38%. Both teams' defensive records and low scoring rates point to a tightly contested match.
Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Both teams to score is rated at 41%, with 'No' favoured at 59%. Vila Nova have kept five consecutive clean sheets and São Bernardo have failed to score in one of their last five, indicating a strong chance at least one side blanks.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 68% probability. Vila Nova's matches go under 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and São Bernardo's 52%, making this a statistically strong angle.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.