San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
San Jose Earthquakes
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Nashville SC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Nashville SC
Match Result
6.7/10Late Löwen Strike Salvages Draw for San Jose Against Nashville
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC played out a tense 1-1 draw at Avaya Stadium, with both sides showing moments of quality but ultimately unable to find a winner. Nashville struck first through Sam Surridge in the 34th minute, capitalizing on their early control of possession. San Jose responded in the second half, with Eduard Löwen leveling the score in the 70th minute to set up a dramatic finish. The Earthquakes pressed hard in the closing stages, registering 14 shots overall but only managing two on target, while Nashville, despite enjoying a slight possession advantage (53%), found clear chances hard to come by after the break. Both teams were well-organized defensively, and a flurry of late fouls and bookings underlined the intensity as neither side could force a breakthrough.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
34' — Goal
S. Surridge scores to give Nashville SC the lead.
70' — Goal
E. Löwen equalizes for San Jose Earthquakes.
77' — Yellow Card
San Jose's defensive intensity leads to a third yellow card.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes set up in a defensive 5-3-2 formation, looking to stay compact and hit on the counter. While they conceded first, the hosts grew into the game and showed resilience, eventually equalizing through Eduard Löwen. Despite generating 14 shots, their lack of cutting edge in front of goal was evident, with just two efforts testing Nashville's goalkeeper. The Quakes' midfield trio worked hard to disrupt Nashville's rhythm, and their wing-backs provided width, but a lack of composure in the final third limited their attacking threat.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Nashville SC
Nashville SC deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, seeking to control possession and dictate the tempo. Their approach paid off early, as Sam Surridge finished off a well-worked move in the 34th minute. Nashville's midfield duo of Yazbek and Corcoran helped them edge possession (53%) and keep San Jose at bay for much of the match. However, their inability to create more chances—ending with just six shots, four on target—meant they couldn't press home their advantage. Defensively, they were solid, conceding only from a moment of quality by Löwen.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
San Jose's 5-3-2 setup prioritized defensive solidity, with wing-backs pushing forward selectively to provide width. Their compact shape made them difficult to break down, but it also left their forwards isolated at times, leading to a reliance on quick transitions. Nashville's 4-2-3-1 allowed them to control midfield spaces and circulate possession, but their lack of penetration in the final third was evident, particularly after taking the lead. Both teams' defensive lines remained disciplined, and set pieces played a minor role, with San Jose earning four corners to Nashville's none. Substitutions were used to inject energy but did not significantly alter the tactical balance.
Turning Point
E. Löwen's equalizer in the 70th minute shifted momentum and ensured San Jose rescued a point.
Man of the Match
E. Löwen
Scored the vital equalizer and was a driving force in San Jose's midfield resurgence.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes come into this fixture sitting fourth in the table, buoyed by a five-match unbeaten run (WDWWD) and a home attack that has produced 25 goals in 14 matches. However, their home record is patchy, with just six wins from those 14, and a defence that has conceded 22 times at PayPal Park. Nashville SC, meanwhile, top the standings with 60 points and just three defeats in 27, underpinned by the league's stingiest defence and a robust away record (5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses).
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Nashville's defensive control against San Jose's home scoring rate. Nashville have allowed only 9 goals in 13 away games (0.69 per game), keeping three clean sheets in their last five overall. San Jose's recent matches have seen both teams score in four of five, and they average 13 shots and 5.4 on target per game in that span. Set pieces could play a role, with San Jose averaging 6.2 corners per game in their last five, but Nashville's discipline (1.6 yellows per game) limits their vulnerability.
The model expects a low-scoring, tightly contested match, with the draw and under 2.5 goals both plausible outcomes. The persistent head-to-head pattern of stalemates—four draws from four, three of them 1-1—aligns with the underlying rates. Nashville's defensive structure is likely to blunt San Jose's attack, but the hosts' shot volume and recent form mean both sides should have chances. A 1-1 draw is the likeliest result, with Nashville's away discipline and San Jose's home inconsistencies the deciding factors.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC that most previews miss.
- 1Nashville SC have conceded just 9 goals in 13 away matches (0.69 per game), the best away defensive record in MLS.
- 2All four previous meetings between these teams have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1.
- 3San Jose's last five games have seen both teams score in four of them, averaging 3.2 total goals per match.
Who do you think wins: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
All four previous meetings between these sides have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1, and the underlying rates point to a tight, low-margin contest again.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Draw or Nashville SC
Nashville SC have lost just three times all season and boast the league's best away defensive record (0.69 goals conceded per away game), while San Jose have only won six of fourteen at home.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Prediction
This fixture pits a strong home side with attacking intent against the league leaders whose defensive record away from home is unmatched. San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game this season, but their home record is less imposing (6 wins from 14) compared to Nashville's away resilience. Nashville SC arrive with a league-best defensive record (0.78 goals conceded per game overall, just 0.69 on their travels) and have only lost three times in 27 outings, but their away attack is more measured (1.08 goals scored per away game). The statistical matchup suggests a game of fine margins. San Jose's last five matches have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with four of five featuring both teams scoring. Nashville, meanwhile, have kept three clean sheets in their last five and conceded just 9 in 13 away matches all season. Both sides see over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, but the underlying shot and chance creation data (San Jose 13 shots, 5.4 on target per last five; Nashville 15.6 and 5.2) point to a controlled contest where clear chances may be at a premium. The numbers desk model projects a low-scoring draw as the most probable outcome, with 1-1 the modal scoreline. The historical head-to-head—four draws from four, three of them 1-1—reinforces the expectation of a close encounter. The most plausible deviation would be Nashville's ability to edge it if their defensive solidity frustrates San Jose's attack for long periods.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →All four previous H2H meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1.
Defence
- →Nashville SC have conceded just 0.69 goals per away game this season.
- →San Jose Earthquakes average 1.81 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game this season.
🚩 San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for San Jose Earthquakes and 4.2 for Nashville SC, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nashville SClast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last five (WDWWD), scoring at least once in each and averaging two goals per game. Nashville SC have also found form, winning their last two and losing just once in their last five, while keeping three clean sheets in that span. Both teams arrive with momentum, but Nashville's defensive consistency stands out.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
The head-to-head record is remarkably even, with all four previous MLS meetings ending in draws. Three of those finished 1-1, and the other was a goalless stalemate. Neither side has managed to assert dominance, and the pattern points to another close contest.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
0
San Jose Earthquakes wins
5
Draws
0
Nashville SC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of writing, so it is not possible to identify specific value edges. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and Nashville double chance would merit attention if prices are generous, given Nashville's away defensive record and the repeated H2H stalemates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of writing, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size for head-to-head (4 matches) but all have ended level.
- ⚠️Both teams are in good form, but variance in finishing could swing the result.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SCA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by Nashville's league-best away defence (0.69 goals conceded per away game) and the unbroken run of draws in this head-to-head. The most likely way this projection fails is if Nashville's attack capitalises on a San Jose defensive lapse, but the rates point to a close, low-scoring contest.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: Common Questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
The model gives Nashville SC a 37% chance of victory, San Jose Earthquakes 24%, and the draw 39%. Both teams are in good form, but Nashville's defensive record and the history of draws between these sides make a stalemate the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by San Jose's recent trend (BTTS in 4 of their last 5) and Nashville's slightly more open away matches. However, Nashville's defensive strength keeps the 'no' side of the market in play.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 52%, with both teams seeing this line cleared in 59% of their matches this season. However, Nashville's away games tend to be lower scoring, so the market is finely balanced.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Resources
San Jose Earthquakes Predictions
All San Jose Earthquakes fixtures & tips
Nashville SC Predictions
All Nashville SC fixtures & tips
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results