SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
SC Paderborn 07
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
VfL Wolfsburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: VfL Wolfsburg Win
Match Result
8.5/10Paderborn Prevail in Extra-Time Thriller Against 10-Man Wolfsburg
SC Paderborn 07 staged a dramatic comeback to defeat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 after extra time at the Home Deluxe Arena, capping a relentless attacking display with a decisive goal in the 100th minute. Wolfsburg stunned the hosts early with a third-minute opener, but Paderborn's overwhelming possession and barrage of 39 shots eventually wore down the visitors, who finished the match with ten men after a red card. Despite Wolfsburg's early lead and determined defensive stand, Paderborn's persistence paid off with an equalizer before halftime and a winner deep into extra time. The match was a tale of two halves: Wolfsburg's early efficiency gave way to a backs-to-the-wall effort as Paderborn dominated possession (67%) and peppered the Wolfsburg goal, finally breaking through in the added period to seal a deserved victory.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Dženan Pejčinović puts Wolfsburg ahead with an early strike, silencing the home crowd.
38' — Goal
Filip Bilbija levels for Paderborn, finishing off a sustained spell of pressure.
70' — Red Card
Wolfsburg reduced to ten men after a second bookable offense, shifting the momentum firmly to Paderborn.
90' — End of Regular Time
Scores level at 1-1, sending the match into extra time.
100' — Goal
Stefano Marino scores the winner for Paderborn, capitalizing on their numerical advantage.
SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn delivered a performance of unyielding pressure and attacking ambition, controlling the ball for 67% of the match and firing an astonishing 39 shots, 10 of which were on target. After conceding early, they maintained composure and stuck to their attacking plan, utilizing width and numbers in midfield to pin Wolfsburg back. Their persistence was rewarded with a crucial equalizer in the 38th minute and the eventual winner in extra time, reflecting both tactical discipline and mental resilience.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg started brightly, snatching a third-minute lead, but were soon forced onto the defensive as Paderborn seized control. With just 8 shots (3 on target) and only 33% possession, Wolfsburg struggled to mount sustained attacks, especially after being reduced to ten men. Their defensive organization and commitment were commendable, but persistent fouling (6 yellow cards and 1 red) reflected their struggle to contain Paderborn's relentless pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Paderborn lined up in a 3-4-2-1, maximizing midfield numbers and width to stretch Wolfsburg's 3-5-2. Their wingbacks and midfielders consistently overloaded the flanks, delivering 19 corners and creating numerous shooting opportunities. Wolfsburg's initial 3-5-2 allowed them to press early and exploit space for the opener, but as the match wore on, they retreated into a compact block, relying on counter-attacks that rarely materialized. The red card forced Wolfsburg even deeper, and Paderborn's patient build-up and high pressing paid dividends in extra time.
Turning Point
The red card to Wolfsburg in the 70th minute tipped the balance, allowing Paderborn to press relentlessly and eventually find the winner in extra time.
Man of the Match
Stefano Marino
Scored the decisive extra-time goal and was a constant threat in the final third.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: VfL Wolfsburg Win
Wolfsburg's superior league experience, better away record, and stronger recent form give them an edge, but lack of odds data prevents a value assessment.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' recent matches have seen goals, and Wolfsburg's season over 2.5 rate is high (64.7%), supporting a moderate lean to over 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Paderborn have scored in all of their last 5, and Wolfsburg's defense is leaky, suggesting both teams could find the net.
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction
Wolfsburg enter this relegation playoff in better form and with Bundesliga-level experience, while Paderborn step up after a mixed run in the 2. Bundesliga. Wolfsburg's attack has improved late in the season, and their away record is decent compared to their overall struggles. Paderborn have shown attacking intent but have defensive vulnerabilities, which Wolfsburg are likely to exploit. Expect a competitive match with both teams likely to score, but Wolfsburg's higher quality and recent momentum make them slight favorites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Wolfsburg's recent form: WLDDW, including a 3-1 away win last match
- →Head-to-head: Wolfsburg unbeaten in last 5 vs Paderborn (3W 2D)
- →Paderborn have scored in each of last 5 matches
Defence
- →Wolfsburg's away record: 5W 4D 8L in Bundesliga, 24 scored/37 conceded
- →Paderborn's last 5: 1W 2D 2L, 1.6 scored/2.2 conceded per game
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injury concerns for either side
Match Context
- →Wolfsburg's over 2.5 goal rate: 64.7%
🚩 SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for SC Paderborn 07 and 5.7 for VfL Wolfsburg, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SC Paderborn 07last 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
VfL Wolfsburglast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Paderborn's recent form is mixed, with a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, but they have found the net in every match, showing some attacking promise despite defensive lapses (2.2 conceded per game). Wolfsburg have steadied after a difficult season, taking 8 points from their last 5 Bundesliga games (WLDDW), including an impressive 3-1 away win at St. Pauli, and look to be peaking at the right moment.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg have not lost to Paderborn in their last five meetings, winning three and drawing two, with the most recent competitive encounters in the Bundesliga ending 4-2 and 3-1 in Wolfsburg's favor. High-scoring games are a trend, with both teams often contributing to the scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
SC Paderborn 07 wins
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg
Due to the absence of bookmaker odds, it's not possible to identify specific value edges for this match. Model probabilities suggest Wolfsburg are rightful favorites, and the goal markets (over 2.5, BTTS) are moderately likely, but without odds, no clear value can be stated. If odds become available, look for value on Wolfsburg and goals markets if prices are generous.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated
- ⚠️Paderborn's season stats are from 2. Bundesliga, so step-up in class is a factor
- ⚠️Paderborn's home/away splits and full season record not available
- ⚠️Recent form for Paderborn is against lower division opposition
- ⚠️Possible playoff pressure and tactical caution could impact goal expectancy
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.