SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
SK Beveren
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
St. Truiden
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.66(+10% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Beveren Strike Twice in Three Minutes to Stun St. Truiden
SK Beveren claimed a deserved 2-0 victory over St. Truiden at the Freethiel Stadion, thanks to a pair of rapid-fire goals early in the second half. Despite St. Truiden dominating possession with 60% and matching Beveren's shot count, the visitors failed to register a single shot on target, while the hosts made their opportunities count. After a cagey first half, Beveren found their breakthrough in the 52nd minute and doubled their advantage just three minutes later, seizing control of the match. St. Truiden, for all their ball retention and four corners, struggled to break down Beveren's disciplined 4-2-3-1 shape, ultimately leaving empty-handed.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
M. Kaboré opens the scoring for Beveren, finishing off a swift attack.
55' — Goal
J. Margaritha doubles Beveren's lead just three minutes later, capitalizing on St. Truiden's lapse.
67' — Yellow Card
C. Conde booked for a tactical foul to halt a St. Truiden counter.
78' — Yellow Card
L. Jans receives a yellow for time-wasting as Beveren protect their lead.
SK Beveren
Beveren executed a disciplined and effective game plan, soaking up pressure and striking decisively when chances arose. Despite seeing just 40% of the ball and earning only a single corner, the hosts were clinical in front of goal, converting two of their four shots on target. Their defensive unit remained organized, limiting St. Truiden to zero shots on target and keeping a clean sheet. A brief spell of attacking intensity early in the second half proved decisive, and Beveren managed the game well thereafter, even as they picked up two yellow cards in the process.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
St. Truiden
St. Truiden controlled the tempo for large stretches, enjoying 60% possession and creating as many total shots as Beveren. However, their inability to test the opposing goalkeeper proved costly, as none of their 11 attempts found the target. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for sustained spells in Beveren's half, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third left them frustrated. Despite winning four corners and conceding just one, St. Truiden's attack fizzled in crucial moments, and they were unable to respond after conceding twice in quick succession.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Beveren's approach was more reactive, sitting deep and springing forward quickly. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively, denying St. Truiden space between the lines. The home side's attacking midfield trio provided support to lone striker Kaboré, who was a constant outlet on the break. St. Truiden, meanwhile, attempted to control the game through patient buildup and wide play, but struggled to penetrate Beveren's compact shape. Their fullbacks pushed high, but the lack of incisive movement in the box left them toothless. Beveren's quick-fire double after halftime forced St. Truiden to chase the game, but tactical substitutions and disciplined defending saw the hosts home.
Turning Point
The three-minute spell early in the second half when Beveren scored twice, swinging momentum irreversibly in their favor.
Man of the Match
M. Kaboré
His opening goal broke the deadlock and set the tone for Beveren's victory, leading the line with purpose.
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden: Match Preview
SK Beveren return to the Freethiel Stadion buoyed by a 3-0 home win over OH Leuven, but their overall start has been patchy—two wins from five, both at home, and a leaky defence conceding ten goals already. St. Truiden sit four places higher in the table and have the division's joint-third best attack, netting 12 times in five matches, including a 4-1 away win at Antwerp. With both sides winning last time out, momentum is fragile rather than entrenched.
The tactical contrast is stark: Beveren's home record (two wins, zero conceded) faces its toughest test yet against a St. Truiden side averaging 3.5 goals per away game. Beveren's average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per match is flattered by their home clean sheets, while St. Truiden's defensive record (1.6 conceded per game) suggests their matches are rarely settled by a single goal. Both teams' matches have cleared 2.5 goals in 80% of league fixtures, and St. Truiden's second halves have produced eight of their last eleven goals, hinting at late drama.
The model expects St. Truiden's attacking threat to eventually break through, but Beveren's home discipline and ability to limit shots on target (just 3.6 allowed per game at home) should keep it competitive. The market's slight lean towards the visitors is justified, but the draw is undervalued given both teams' defensive volatility and the historical head-to-head pattern. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but a 1-1 draw is not far behind.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden
The model finds two value edges in the 1x2 market: the draw (model 30% vs 27% implied, +9.8% edge) and the away win (42% vs 39%, +6.7% edge). The market's slight preference for St. Truiden is justified by their away scoring rate, but the draw is being underpriced given both sides' defensive inconsistencies and the frequency of stalemates in their head-to-head history. No value is available on over/under or BTTS due to missing odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.66
The model assigns a 30% probability to the draw, compared to an implied 27% from the odds (3.66), yielding a fair value edge. Both sides have shown inconsistency and defensive volatility, with Beveren keeping clean sheets only at home and St. Truiden conceding in both away matches, making a stalemate plausible.
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Match Result: St. Truiden Win@ 2.54
St. Truiden's away attack (7 goals in 2 away league matches) and Beveren's defensive record (10 conceded in 5, only 2 clean sheets) point to the visitors having a slight edge, with a 6.7% value margin over the market price.
Read more ↓
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SK Beveren vs St. Truiden that most previews miss.
- 1St. Truiden have scored in both halves in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Beveren have conceded 8 of their last 10 goals after the break.
- 2Beveren's two home matches this season have both ended in clean sheets, but their three away games saw them ship 10 goals.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Beveren have averaged 4.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in two of those.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
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The Case For This SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Prediction
Market prices narrowly favour St. Truiden, but the data suggests this is a genuinely open contest. St. Truiden's away firepower and Beveren's perfect home defensive record collide, with the model seeing both the away win and the draw as holding value against the odds. The key battleground lies in whether Beveren's defensive solidity at the Freethiel can withstand a St. Truiden side averaging over two goals per game this season.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →St. Truiden have scored 7 goals in 2 away league games (3.5 per game), while Beveren have conceded 10 in 5 overall.
- →Beveren have kept clean sheets in both home matches but lost all three away, highlighting a strong home/away split.
Match Context
- →Both teams' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their league fixtures.
🚩 SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for SK Beveren and 4.3 for St. Truiden, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 45% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How SK Beveren and St. Truiden Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SK Beverenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beveren have alternated between heavy defeats and clean-sheet wins, with their two home matches yielding six points and no goals conceded, but three away losses by a combined 1-10 scoreline. St. Truiden arrive in better overall shape, winning two of their last three and scoring four in both their most recent league victory and last away trip. The visitors' form string of 'WLWLW' shows inconsistency, but their attacking output is among the league's best.
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden
The head-to-head is finely balanced, with St. Truiden edging it four wins to three over the last ten meetings, and three draws. Recent encounters at Beveren have been high-scoring, including a 4-2 away win for St. Truiden in 2021. Both teams have found the net in six of the last ten, suggesting an open contest is likely.
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
SK Beveren wins
3
Draws
4
St. Truiden wins
Things to Watch: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden
- ⚠️No over/under or BTTS odds available at time of analysis, limiting value bet options.
- ⚠️Both teams are early in the season, so form lines may not be fully reliable.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotation could impact probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SK Beveren 1–2 St. TruidenA narrow 2-1 away win for St. Truiden is the model's call, driven by their prolific away attack (7 goals in 2 away league games) and Beveren's defensive frailty outside their own ground. The biggest risk is Beveren's home resilience—two clean sheets from two—and the possibility that St. Truiden's attack stalls against a deep block, making the draw a live outcome.
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden: Common Questions
Who will win SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
The model gives St. Truiden a 42% chance of victory (odds 2.54), with Beveren at 28% and the draw at 30%. St. Truiden's strong away scoring record tips the balance, but Beveren's home form keeps it close.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
There's a 54% probability both teams find the net, with St. Truiden scoring in every away game and Beveren blanking in two of five overall. Defensive volatility on both sides makes BTTS slightly more likely than not.
Is there value in betting the draw or away win?
Yes, both the draw (model 30% vs implied 27%) and the away win (model 42% vs implied 39%) hold positive expected value at current odds, reflecting the market's underestimation of a stalemate and St. Truiden's attacking edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SK Beveren vs St. Truiden: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.