SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
SK Beveren
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Union St. Gilloise Win
Recommended Bets: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise: Match Preview
SK Beveren return to the Freethiel Stadion after a mixed start to the campaign, sitting 11th with three wins—all at home—and five losses from eight. Their recent form string of WLLWW includes a cup win over lower-league opposition, but a 1-3 home defeat to Lommel United last time out in the league exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, remain unbeaten in the league (6W, 2D), and arrive off the back of a dominant 4-0 Europa League win and four straight away league victories.
The matchup is statistically lopsided: Union’s attack leads the division with 2.75 goals per game and 16.8 shots per match over the last five, while Beveren’s defence concedes 1.75 per game across the season. At the other end, Beveren’s home attack is efficient (1.75 goals per home game), but Union’s away defence has allowed only three goals in four, with a 62.5% clean sheet rate. Both sides have a 62.5% over 2.5 goals rate, but Union’s matches skew towards second-half scoring (9 of their last 10 goals after the break), and Beveren have failed to score in one of their last five.
The model expects Union St. Gilloise to dictate the tempo, with Beveren likely to struggle for clear chances. Union’s away scoring rate and defensive solidity point to a controlled 2-0 victory, with the most probable disruption coming from Beveren’s set-piece threat (4.8 corners per game in the last five) or an early goal altering the game state.
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise that most previews miss.
- 1Union St. Gilloise have scored at least twice in every away league match this season (13 goals in 4 games).
- 2Beveren’s last five matches have produced just one BTTS outcome, with three clean sheets and one failed to score.
- 3Union’s last 10 league goals: 9 have come after half-time, indicating a strong second-half profile.
Who do you think wins: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Union St. Gilloise Win
Union St. Gilloise have won all four away league matches (13 scored, 3 conceded), while Beveren have lost all four away and only three home wins have come against bottom-half opposition. The underlying rates show a 2.75 goals per game attack for Union and just 1.0 for Beveren, with a 0.5 vs 1.75 defensive split.
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BTTS: No
Beveren have failed to score in three of eight league matches and Union have conceded just four all season (clean sheets in 62.5%). Only one of Beveren’s last five has seen both teams score.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have a 62.5% over 2.5 rate, but Union’s defensive record away (0.75 conceded per game) and Beveren’s home attack (1.75 scored per game) suggest a moderate total, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 and 47% under—no value edge, but the model leans slightly under based on likely game state.
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More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction
This fixture pits one of Belgium’s most efficient travelling attacks against a side with a strong home record but a low overall scoring rate. The statistical shape is defined by Union St. Gilloise’s 2.75 goals per game and 0.5 conceded per match, versus Beveren’s 1.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. Distribution analysis points to a low probability of a home goal and a high likelihood of Union controlling the match, particularly after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Union St. Gilloise average 3.25 goals scored per away game (13 in 4 matches), conceding just 0.75.
- →Union have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 league games (62.5%), Beveren just 3 (37.5%).
Match Context
- →Beveren have lost all away matches but are 3-1-0 at home, with a +4 home goal difference.
🚩 SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for SK Beveren and 5.6 for Union St. Gilloise, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
How SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SK Beverenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Union St. Gilloiselast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beveren’s recent form is mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five across all competitions, but their league momentum is negative after a 1-3 home defeat to Lommel United. Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last five (WWDDW), with a dominant +18 goal difference and no losses all season, including four straight away league wins.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
The last three meetings have produced two Union St. Gilloise wins and one Beveren victory, with the most recent encounter a 2-0 Union win away in the cup. Both teams have scored in only one of those three matches, and no fixture has ended in a draw.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
SK Beveren wins
0
Draws
2
Union St. Gilloise wins
Things to Watch: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Head-to-head sample is limited (three matches, last league meeting over three years ago).
- ⚠️Recent home form for Beveren is strong, but mostly against lower-table sides.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise’s away record (four wins from four, 13 scored, three conceded) is the single strongest data point, supporting a 2-0 away win prediction. The likeliest way this call goes wrong is if Beveren’s home form (three wins from four) translates into a higher attacking output than their season average, especially from set pieces or an early lead.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise: Common Questions
Who will win SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise are strong favourites with a 64% win probability, based on their perfect away record and league-best attack. Beveren’s home form is solid, but the underlying rates favour the visitors.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
The model gives just a 31% probability for both teams to score, with Union keeping clean sheets in 62.5% of matches and Beveren failing to score in three of eight league games.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 53%, but Union’s defensive record and Beveren’s modest attack suggest a moderate total. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to Union St. Gilloise.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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