St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
St. Truiden
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
OH Leuven
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven: Match Preview
St. Truiden enter this fixture on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions, including a 4-1 home victory in the cup and a 1-0 away win in Europe, signalling a notable upturn after a difficult league run. Their league position (13th, 8 points from 8) belies recent momentum, while OH Leuven remain winless away and sit 16th, with just six points from nine matches and only two goals scored on the road. Both sides are in the lower third of the table, making this a key match in the early relegation battle.
Statistically, St. Truiden's attack has outperformed Leuven's, averaging 1.88 goals per game (15 in 8) versus Leuven's 0.89 (8 in 9), and the home side's shot volume (14.4 per match last five) suggests they will generate more opportunities. Defensively, both teams are suspect—St. Truiden concede two per game, while Leuven's away defence has shipped eight in four. Clean sheet rates are low (12.5% and 11.1%), and over 2.5 goals has landed in 62.5% of St. Truiden's and 55.6% of Leuven's league matches, pointing to an above-average goal expectation. First-half scoring is slightly favoured for both teams, with eight of their combined last fifteen goals coming before the break.
The model projects a narrow St. Truiden win, most likely 2-1, driven by their superior attacking metrics and Leuven's travel struggles. However, the high draw rate in both teams' recent records and head-to-head history (four draws in last ten) means a stalemate cannot be discounted, especially given both sides' defensive lapses.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind St. Truiden vs OH Leuven that most previews miss.
- 1St. Truiden's over 2.5 goals rate at home is 62.5%, compared to the league average of just under 50%.
- 2OH Leuven have failed to score more than once in any away league game this season, averaging 0.5 goals per away match.
- 3Four of the last six head-to-head meetings have ended 2-1 or 1-1, with both teams scoring in five of those games.
Who do you think wins: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The 2-1 scoreline aligns with St. Truiden's average home output (1.25 goals for, 1.5 against per home game) and OH Leuven's away record (0.5 scored, 2 conceded per away match), with both teams showing a tendency for BTTS in recent fixtures.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
St. Truiden's season over 2.5 goal rate is 62.5%, and both sides average over 2 goals conceded per game combined, suggesting a higher-scoring environment than league average.
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Double Chance: St. Truiden or Draw
St. Truiden have lost just one of their last five at home to OH Leuven and Leuven have not won away all season (0W 1D 3L, 2 scored, 8 conceded), making the home side the more reliable result anchor.
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More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Prediction
This fixture matches two sides in the lower reaches of the Jupiler Pro League, with St. Truiden holding a slight edge in both season-long scoring and recent form. The underlying rates point to a moderate goal environment, with both teams conceding at least 1.75 goals per game and a combined over 2.5 goals rate above 60%. St. Truiden's attack has found rhythm recently, averaging 2 goals per game across their last five in all competitions, while Leuven's away record remains a concern, with just 0.5 goals scored per away match this league campaign. The contest is likely to be shaped by St. Truiden's ability to generate shots and control possession at home (14.4 shots, 46% possession last five), set against Leuven's bluntness on the road and tendency to concede from open play. Both sides have struggled for clean sheets (St. Truiden 12.5%, Leuven 11.1% season-long), and Leuven's defensive frailty away (8 conceded in 4) suggests that the home side will create the better chances, especially in the first half where both teams have shown a slight bias for early goals. Set-piece threat is moderate, with St. Truiden averaging 5 corners per game and Leuven 3.2. The model expects St. Truiden to edge a competitive but open match, with the most probable outcome a 2-1 home win. The strongest statistical signal is the combination of St. Truiden's improved attacking output and Leuven's poor away defensive record. The main risk lies in both teams' inconsistency and the relatively high draw rate in their head-to-head history.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →St. Truiden average 1.88 goals scored and 2 conceded per league game; Leuven average 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
- →St. Truiden have won three straight in all competitions, scoring 7 and conceding 1 in their last two at home.
- →OH Leuven have not won away this season (0W 1D 3L), scoring just twice and conceding eight in four away league matches.
🚩 St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for St. Truiden and 4.4 for OH Leuven, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How St. Truiden and OH Leuven Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
OH Leuvenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St. Truiden have rebounded from a run of three straight league defeats to win their last three in all competitions, scoring seven and conceding just one in their last two. OH Leuven remain without an away win in the league, but have drawn three of their last five overall and are unbeaten in four, though their scoring output remains modest.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
The last ten meetings between these sides are balanced, with three wins apiece and four draws. Recent encounters at Daio Wasabi Stayen have favoured St. Truiden, who are unbeaten in the last three at home to Leuven, and four of the last six H2Hs have finished either 2-1 or 1-1.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
St. Truiden wins
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven wins
Things to Watch: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in results and goal output, increasing draw and low-scoring probabilities.
- ⚠️Recent lineups and injuries are unavailable, so late squad changes could affect the prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
St. Truiden 2–1 OH LeuvenThe model calls this 2-1 to St. Truiden, anchored by the home side's superior scoring rate (1.88 per game) and Leuven's inability to keep goals out on their travels (8 conceded in 4 away). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if both teams' inconsistency and high draw rates—evident in four of their last ten meetings—turn this into a low-tempo stalemate.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven: Common Questions
Who will win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden are favoured with a 43% win probability, compared to 32% for a draw and 25% for an OH Leuven win. The home side's stronger attack and Leuven's poor away record underpin this edge.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
The model gives a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by St. Truiden's 62.5% season over 2.5 rate and both teams' low clean sheet percentages.
Is both teams to score likely in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, as St. Truiden have conceded in 87.5% of league matches and Leuven have found the net in all of their last five games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results