Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Predictions
Superliga · Denmark
Sonderjyske
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
AC Horsens
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: AC Horsens Win
@ 3.2(+31% edge)
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens: Match Preview
Sonderjyske approach this fixture rooted to the bottom of the Superliga, still searching for a first win after five rounds (0W-1D-4L) and having shipped ten goals already. Their home form offers little comfort, with just two goals scored and six conceded in three outings at Haderslev. AC Horsens, meanwhile, have been erratic but more productive, sitting sixth with two wins and a draw from six matches, and coming off a narrow 2-3 home defeat to Viborg.
Statistically, this is a clash between one of the league’s bluntest attacks and a visiting side with a higher scoring ceiling but defensive vulnerabilities. Sonderjyske’s last five matches have yielded just 0.8 goals for and 2.0 against per game, while Horsens have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded over the same span. Both teams’ matches trend over 2.5 goals (Sonderjyske 60%, Horsens 66.7%), and neither side has kept more than one clean sheet all season, suggesting both attacks will find opportunities. Notably, Horsens have scored five of their last seven goals in the second half, indicating late-game threat.
The model expects Horsens’ superior attacking output and Sonderjyske’s defensive frailty to decide the contest, with the away side more likely to capitalise on chances, especially as the match opens up after the break. While Sonderjyske’s historical home edge in this fixture is strong, current season rates and shot data point to an away win in a match with goals at both ends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens that most previews miss.
- 1Sonderjyske have failed to score in three of their last five matches, and have just one clean sheet in that span.
- 2AC Horsens matches have produced both teams scoring in four of their last five games.
- 3Despite a dominant H2H record for Sonderjyske (7 wins in 10), their current home record is 0W-1D-2L with only 2 goals scored.
Who do you think wins: Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: AC Horsens Win@ 3.2
AC Horsens have a significantly higher away win probability (41%) than the 31% implied by 3.2 odds, supported by their superior season scoring rate (1.33 goals per game) and Sonderjyske’s winless start (0W-1D-4L, 2.0 conceded per game).
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The Case For This Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Prediction
Sonderjyske enter this fixture at the foot of the table with just one point from five matches and a leaky defence conceding 2.0 goals per game, while AC Horsens, though inconsistent, have shown more attacking punch and sit mid-table. The underlying rates point to a moderate goal environment: both sides average above 1.5 goals conceded per game, and over 60% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season. Horsens’ sharper attack and Sonderjyske’s inability to keep clean sheets at home (just 20% clean sheet rate) tilt the balance towards the visitors, despite the historical home dominance in this fixture.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Sonderjyske have failed to win in five league matches (0W-1D-4L), scoring only 0.8 goals per game.
Defence
- →AC Horsens average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with 66.7% of their matches over 2.5 goals.
Match Context
- →Sonderjyske’s home record is poor (0W-1D-2L, 2 GF, 6 GA), while Horsens are balanced away (1W-0D-1L, 3 GF, 3 GA).
🚩 Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Sonderjyske and 4.2 for AC Horsens, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Sonderjyske and AC Horsens Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sonderjyskelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AC Horsenslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sonderjyske’s form is concerning: winless in five, with just four goals scored and ten conceded, and three matches without finding the net. AC Horsens have shown more balance, winning two of their last three before a narrow defeat to Viborg, and have scored in five of six league matches.
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens — Last 6 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens
Sonderjyske have historically dominated this matchup, winning seven of the last ten meetings and enjoying emphatic home wins such as 5-0 in 2023. However, recent encounters have been more competitive, with both teams finding the net and Horsens claiming an away win in 2021.
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Sonderjyske wins
1
Draws
2
AC Horsens wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens
The model finds value in the away win, assigning AC Horsens a 41% chance (3.2 odds imply just 31%), resulting in a double-digit expected value edge. There is no significant model edge on over/under 2.5 goals at current prices, and BTTS odds are not available for assessment.
Odds from 1xBet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens
- ⚠️Small sample sizes early in the season may inflate or deflate team strengths.
- ⚠️Sonderjyske’s historical H2H dominance (7 wins in last 10) is at odds with current form.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but potential for late squad changes is unknown.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sonderjyske 1–2 AC HorsensThe model projects a 2-1 away win for AC Horsens, with their higher season scoring rate (1.33 per game) and Sonderjyske’s defensive frailty (2.0 conceded per game) providing the clearest edge. The biggest risk to this call is Sonderjyske’s strong historical record in this fixture, which could reassert itself if Horsens’ defence falters.
Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens: Common Questions
Who will win Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
The model gives AC Horsens a 41% chance of winning, compared to 28% for Sonderjyske and 31% for the draw. This is based on Horsens’ stronger attack and Sonderjyske’s poor start to the season.
Will both teams score in Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
There is a 57% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides averaging at least 1.5 goals conceded per game and BTTS landing in four of Horsens’ last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 54%, slightly above the market implied odds, reflecting both teams’ high over 2.5 rates this season (Sonderjyske 60%, Horsens 66.7%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.