Sport Recife vs Criciuma Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Sport Recife
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Criciuma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
Sport Recife vs Criciuma: Match Preview
Sport Recife enter this clash eighth in the table, five points behind Criciuma, and with a strong home record (8W, 7D, 1L, 28 scored) that has kept them in the promotion mix. Their recent form is solid, with three wins and a draw in the last five, and they have scored in every one of those matches. Criciuma sit fifth, having won four of their last six, though their away record is more modest (6W, 4D, 6L) and they have managed just 15 goals in 16 away fixtures.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Sport Recife's productive but not explosive attack and Criciuma's robust defence. Sport Recife average 1.75 goals scored per home game, but Criciuma concede just 1.13 per away match and keep clean sheets in 45% of all games. Criciuma's games are rarely high-scoring: only 21% of their matches go over 2.5 goals, and their last five have produced just six total goals. The corners market stands out, with both sides combining for over 13 per game in recent matches, suggesting set pieces could play a role.
The model expects a tight, tactical contest with a strong probability of a draw and a low likelihood of more than two goals. Sport Recife's home edge is balanced by Criciuma's defensive consistency and the H2H trend towards stalemates. A 1-1 scoreline is the likeliest outcome, with neither side expected to pull away.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sport Recife vs Criciuma that most previews miss.
- 1Criciuma's last five matches have produced just six total goals, with three clean sheets and zero BTTS outcomes.
- 2Sport Recife have both scored and conceded in all of their last five matches, with BTTS landing 5/5 times.
- 3The last nine H2H meetings have averaged just 2.0 goals per game, with four draws and only two matches going over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sport Recife vs Criciuma(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Sport Recife 1.36, Criciuma 1.03), with defensive records in line with league averages and a high draw rate in H2H (4 draws in last 9).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Criciuma have seen under 2.5 goals in 78.8% of their league matches, and Sport Recife's home attack is solid but not explosive (1.75 scored, 1.0 conceded per home game); the matchup points to a low-scoring contest.
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Corners: Over 10.5
Both teams are among the league's highest for corners: Criciuma average 8.2 per game over their last five, Sport Recife 5.0, supporting a high total corners projection.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Sport Recife vs Criciuma Prediction
This fixture sets up as a statistical deadlock between two sides with contrasting strengths: Sport Recife's home consistency against Criciuma's defensive discipline. The underlying rates point toward a low-scoring, closely contested match, with neither side likely to dominate the shot or goal metrics.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sport Recife average 1.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home match; Criciuma average 0.94 scored and 1.13 conceded away.
Match Context
- →Criciuma's season over 2.5 goal percentage is just 21.21%, lowest among top-half teams.
- →Sport Recife have drawn 7 of 16 at home; Criciuma have drawn 4 of 16 away and 4 of 9 H2H.
🚩 Sport Recife vs Criciuma Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Sport Recife and 5 for Criciuma, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Sport Recife and Criciuma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sport Recifelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciumalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sport Recife are unbeaten in four of their last five, with a DWWLW form string and no failed-to-score matches in that span. Criciuma have won three of their last five (WLWWL), keeping three clean sheets but also failing to score twice, reflecting a more defensive, lower-variance profile.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +45.45% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
Draws have been common in this matchup, with four of the last nine meetings ending level and only two matches since 2019 producing more than two goals. The last fixture at this ground finished 3-3, but most encounters have been tight, low-scoring affairs.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Sport Recife wins
4
Draws
3
Criciuma wins
Things to Watch: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some volatility in recent results, with Sport Recife's last five featuring both a 3-1 loss and two 2-1 wins.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available; late injuries or rotations could impact the model's accuracy.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sport Recife 1–1 CriciumaThe numbers point to a 1-1 draw, underpinned by Criciuma's league-low over 2.5 goal rate (21%) and Sport Recife's tendency to draw at home (7/16). The main risk lies in Sport Recife's recent attacking momentum—if they break through early, the match could open up beyond the model's low-scoring expectation.
Sport Recife vs Criciuma: Common Questions
Who will win Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
The model gives Sport Recife a 33% chance to win, Criciuma a 28% chance, and the draw the highest probability at 39%. Both teams have strong defensive records and a history of stalemates in this fixture.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 66% probability, with Criciuma's matches going over 2.5 just 21% of the time this season and the H2H trend also supporting a low-scoring outcome.
Are both teams likely to score in Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
It's close to even: the model estimates a 49% chance of both teams scoring. Sport Recife have seen BTTS in all of their last five, but Criciuma's last five have all finished with at least one clean sheet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sport Recife vs Criciuma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.