SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Full Time
5 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Havelse
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.6(+43% edge)
Match Result
8.3/10Regensburg Run Riot: Five-Star Show Sinks Ten-Man Havelse
SSV Jahn Regensburg delivered a commanding performance at the Arena Regensburg, thrashing Havelse 5-0 in a one-sided 3. Liga encounter. After a cagey opening, the hosts broke the deadlock just before halftime and never looked back, adding a second moments later to take full control. Regensburg's dominance only grew in the second half, aided by a Havelse red card, as they ruthlessly added three more goals to seal a memorable victory. Regensburg enjoyed 61% possession and, while official shot statistics were not recorded, their five-goal haul and relentless pressure told the story. Havelse, set up in a defensive 5-3-2, struggled to contain the hosts and saw their task become impossible after being reduced to ten men. The gulf in class was evident, with Regensburg's midfield dictating play and their forwards clinical in front of goal.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
5 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
44' — Goal
Regensburg break the deadlock with a well-worked move, finally breaching Havelse's defense.
45' — Goal
Regensburg double their lead on the stroke of halftime, seizing full control.
52' — Goal
A third goal early in the second half puts the result beyond doubt.
75' — Goal
Regensburg add a fourth, capitalizing on Havelse's numerical disadvantage.
88' — Goal
The hosts cap a dominant display with a fifth goal late on.
Second half' — Red Card
Havelse reduced to ten men, ending any hope of a comeback.
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Regensburg were utterly dominant from start to finish, controlling possession and dictating the tempo. Their 3-4-1-2 formation allowed them to overload the midfield and stretch Havelse's back five, especially after the visitors went down to ten men. The hosts struck twice in quick succession before halftime, then maintained their intensity to add three more goals in the second half. Their defensive line was rarely troubled, and the midfield orchestrated wave after wave of attack.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Havelse
Havelse endured a torrid afternoon, unable to cope with Regensburg's intensity and movement. Their defensive 5-3-2 formation was breached repeatedly, and a red card in the second half left them hopelessly exposed. With just 39% possession and no recorded shots, Havelse failed to offer any attacking threat and were overwhelmed in midfield. The loss of discipline compounded their woes, and they were simply outclassed in every department.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Regensburg lined up in a proactive 3-4-1-2, using their wingbacks to stretch Havelse's compact 5-3-2 and create overloads in wide areas. The midfield trio dictated the tempo, with D. Philipp orchestrating play and N. Boujellab linking midfield to attack. The hosts pressed high, forcing turnovers and pinning Havelse deep in their own half. Havelse's defensive shape initially frustrated Regensburg, but once the deadlock was broken, their structure collapsed under sustained pressure. The red card forced Havelse even deeper, and Regensburg exploited the extra space ruthlessly, rotating attackers and maintaining width to pull the defense apart.
Turning Point
The quickfire double from Regensburg in the 44th and 45th minutes shattered Havelse's resistance and set the stage for the rout.
Man of the Match
N. Boujellab
He was the creative hub, involved in multiple goals and consistently broke down Havelse's defense with incisive play.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse: Match Preview
Regensburg and Havelse meet with both sides languishing in the relegation zone, separated by just a point at the foot of the 3. Liga table. Regensburg have endured a torrid run, with no wins in their last five league games (form string: LDLDL), and are yet to claim a home victory this season. Havelse are in even worse shape, propping up the table with five defeats in seven and a three-match losing streak, and have failed to take a single point on the road.
Statistically, this is a clash of two of the league's weakest defences—Regensburg are conceding 2.43 goals per game, Havelse 2.14, with neither side managing a clean sheet all season. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 86% of their matches, and their last five games average 4.4 and 3.8 total goals respectively. Regensburg's attack is more active (10.8 shots, 4.4 on target per game), but Havelse's matches are consistently open, with both teams scoring in all of their last five league fixtures. Set-piece threat is modest, with corners and fouls both below league average, but discipline could play a part with both sides averaging over two yellow cards per game recently.
Despite the market's strong lean toward Regensburg, the data suggests a far more balanced contest. Both teams are error-prone and have little to separate them in terms of attacking output or defensive resilience. The model expects another high-scoring, competitive affair, with the draw overpriced given the frequency of close, high-BTTS games involving both sides. Expect goals at both ends and a nervy finish.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
The standout value is on the draw at 4.6, where the model's 31% probability is well above the market's 21.7% implied chance. The market's short price on Regensburg does not align with their winless home record and defensive frailty. No significant value is found on the over/under 2.5 goals market, where prices are more in line with model expectations.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.57
The model assigns a 31% probability to the draw, compared to the market's implied 21.7% (odds 4.6), creating a substantial value edge. Both sides have drawn multiple recent league games (Regensburg 2/7, Havelse 1/7, but both with high BTTS and close scorelines), and neither defence inspires confidence. With both teams winless at home/away respectively and a history of high-scoring but competitive matches, the price on the draw is too generous to ignore.
Read more ↓
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse that most previews miss.
- 1All seven league matches for both Regensburg and Havelse have finished with both teams scoring except one for Regensburg (BTTS: 4/5 and 5/5 in last five, respectively).
- 2Regensburg are winless at home (0-0-3), while Havelse have lost all three away games, both with identical 2 goals scored and 5 conceded in those splits.
- 3The last two H2H meetings produced 12 goals (average 6.0 per match), with Regensburg winning both but conceding in each.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS: Yes
68%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Prediction
Despite the market making Regensburg a strong favourite at 1.44, the underlying data paints a much closer contest between two sides struggling for results and defensive stability. Both teams are winless at home or away this season, and their recent form lines are marked by repeated draws and high-scoring, error-prone games. With neither defence showing any sign of tightening up—zero clean sheets for either side all season and both averaging over 2 goals conceded per game—this fixture looks set to be decided by who makes fewer mistakes rather than any clear superiority.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams have conceded in every league match this season (Regensburg 17, Havelse 15 goals against in 7 games).
Match Context
- →Regensburg have failed to win any of their three home games (0-0-3), while Havelse are 0-0-3 away.
- →The last two H2H meetings were both won by Regensburg, but both featured BTTS and 3+ goals.
🚩 SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 4 for Havelse, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How SSV Jahn Regensburg and Havelse Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SSV Jahn Regensburglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Havelselast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Regensburg's recent form is poor, with no wins in their last five league outings (LDLDL) and a heavy 0-6 friendly defeat compounding their woes. Havelse are in similarly dire straits, having lost three straight league games and failed to pick up a single point away from home. Both sides have been consistently involved in high-scoring, error-strewn matches, with little to separate them in terms of momentum.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
Regensburg have won both previous meetings with Havelse, scoring five and two goals respectively, but Havelse have found the net in both encounters. The head-to-head record hints at goals at both ends and a competitive match, rather than clear Regensburg dominance.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg wins
0
Draws
0
Havelse wins
Things to Watch: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse
- ⚠️Both sides' defensive frailty increases variance and makes low-scoring outcomes less likely.
- ⚠️Market is heavily favouring Regensburg despite their poor home record, suggesting risk of market overreaction or inside information.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies included heavy defeats for both, which may distort form lines.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 HavelseA 2-1 home win is the model's most likely outcome, but the single strongest data point is the lack of clean sheets and high BTTS/over 2.5 rates for both sides (each 86% over 2.5, zero clean sheets). The biggest risk is that Regensburg's home struggles continue and Havelse, desperate for points, capitalise on defensive errors to force another draw or even snatch a first away win.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse: Common Questions
Who will win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse?
The model gives Regensburg a 47% chance of victory, with the draw at 31% and Havelse at 22%. The market odds (home 1.44, draw 4.6, away 5.0) are more bullish on Regensburg than the data supports, with the draw offering the most value based on recent form and defensive records.
Will both teams score in Regensburg vs Havelse?
Yes is favoured at 68%, as both teams have scored and conceded in nearly every match this season (Regensburg BTTS in 4/5, Havelse 5/5 last five), and neither has managed a clean sheet all campaign.
Is the draw overpriced in this fixture?
Yes, the model finds significant value in the draw at odds of 4.6 (implied probability 21.7%), while the data suggests a 31% chance. Both sides have drawn several recent matches and are closely matched in underlying numbers, making the draw a strong value play.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.