Sturm Graz vs Celje Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
Sturm Graz
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Celje
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Sturm Graz vs Celje: Match Preview
Sturm Graz come into this Europa League tie on the back of a robust defensive run, having conceded just once in three group matches and maintaining clean sheets in both home fixtures. Their recent form string of DWWLW is underpinned by a strong home record, and they currently sit mid-table in the group with four points, knowing a win would put them in a strong position for progression. Celje, by contrast, have found the step up challenging, with only one point from three games and a -5 goal difference, having failed to score in two of their group outings.
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring affair. Sturm Graz's Europa League matches average just 1.33 total goals, and they have yet to concede at home. Celje's attack has been blunt, with only two goals in three games and an average of just 1 shot on target per match over their last five. Defensively, Celje have been porous, conceding seven in three, but Sturm Graz's attack in Europe is also modest, averaging 0.33 goals per game. Both sides show a propensity for tight first halves, with only one first-half goal between them in their last five group matches combined.
The model expects Sturm Graz's defensive structure and home advantage to be decisive, with a 1-0 scoreline the most likely outcome. The low attacking output from both sides and the hosts' clean sheet rate suggest a match where a single goal could settle matters, with set pieces and defensive lapses likely to be the key variables.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sturm Graz vs Celje that most previews miss.
- 1Sturm Graz's two home group matches have produced a combined total of just one goal (1-0, 0-0).
- 2Celje have conceded at least two goals in every away group match and have not kept a clean sheet in Europe.
- 3Across both teams' six group matches, only one has gone over 2.5 goals (Celje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg).
Who do you think wins: Sturm Graz vs Celje?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sturm Graz vs Celje(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Sturm Graz have kept two clean sheets in three Europa League matches and have not conceded at home in the group, while Celje have failed to score in two of three and have conceded seven overall.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides average under 1 goal scored per game in the group (Sturm Graz 0.33, Celje 0.67), and only one of their combined six matches has seen more than two goals.
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BTTS: No
Celje have failed to score in two of three group games and Sturm Graz have yet to concede at home in Europe this season.
More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction
Sturm Graz arrive with a defensive record that stands out in this group, conceding just once in three matches and none at home, while Celje have struggled to adapt to the Europa League level, scoring only twice and conceding seven. The underlying rates suggest a low-scoring contest, with Sturm Graz's home solidity and Celje's lack of attacking punch the defining factors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sturm Graz have not conceded in either of their home group matches (1-0 vs Marseille, 0-0 vs Rennes).
- →Celje have scored just two goals in three group games and have conceded at least twice in every away match.
Match Context
- →Both teams' season averages in Europe point to a low goal environment: Sturm Graz 0.33 scored, Celje 0.67 scored per game.
🚩 Sturm Graz vs Celje Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Sturm Graz and 4.3 for Celje, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 36%.
How Sturm Graz and Celje Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sturm Graz vs Celje Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Celjelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Sturm Graz have taken seven points from their last five in all competitions, highlighted by a 1-0 Europa League win over Marseille and a 6-1 domestic rout of Grazer AK. Celje's recent form is less convincing, with just one win in their last five and only two goals scored in three group matches, leaving them near the bottom of the group.
Sturm Graz vs Celje — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sturm Graz vs Celje
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no value edges can be identified. However, the model's high probability for under 2.5 goals and a home win suggests these would be the markets to monitor for value if prices are released.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sturm Graz vs Celje
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available; no historical matchup context.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes (three group games each) limit confidence in extreme probability estimates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sturm Graz 1–0 CeljeSturm Graz are projected to edge this contest 1-0, with their home defensive record—no goals conceded in two group matches—the single most persuasive data point. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if Celje's attack, which has been subdued in Europe but more productive domestically, finds an early breakthrough against the run of play.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: Common Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz are favoured with a 54% probability of victory, based on their strong home defensive record and Celje's struggles in the group. Celje's win probability is just 16%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
The probability of both teams scoring is only 27%, with both sides averaging under a goal per game in the group and Sturm Graz yet to concede at home.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 68%, as both teams' Europa League matches have been low-scoring, with only one of six combined games going over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sturm Graz vs Celje: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.