Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Sturm Graz
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Rapid Vienna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+4% edge)
Match Result
7.4/10Late Goals Lift Sturm Graz to Victory Over 10-Man Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz left it late but ultimately secured a deserved 2-0 victory over Rapid Vienna at Merkur-Arena, striking twice in the final minutes to break the deadlock. The hosts dominated proceedings from start to finish, enjoying 68% possession and firing 22 shots, but were repeatedly frustrated by a resolute Rapid Vienna defense and goalkeeper Niklas Hedl. Rapid's hopes of snatching a result were dashed after they were reduced to ten men, and the pressure finally told as Sturm Graz struck in the 88th and 90th minutes to seal the win. Despite their numerical disadvantage and limited attacking threat—just 4 shots with only 1 on target—Rapid Vienna held out bravely for much of the match. However, the relentless Sturm Graz attack, marshaled by Otar Kiteishvili and Maurice Malone, eventually found the breakthrough. The result was a fair reflection of the balance of play, with Sturm Graz's patience and attacking intent ultimately rewarded.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
88' — Goal
Sturm Graz finally break the deadlock with a late strike after sustained pressure.
90' — Goal
Sturm Graz double their lead in stoppage time, sealing the victory.
Unknown' — Red Card
Rapid Vienna reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum decisively in Sturm Graz's favor.
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz put in a commanding display, controlling the tempo with 68% possession and relentlessly probing the Rapid Vienna defense. Their 22 total shots and 9 corners underlined their attacking intent, but for much of the match, they struggled to convert dominance into goals. Persistence paid off in the dying minutes, as they capitalized on their numerical advantage and finally breached the visitors' resistance. The midfield trio of Jon Gorenc Stanković, Luca Weinhandl, and Otar Kiteishvili orchestrated play effectively, while the back three remained largely untested. The late goals were a testament to their patience and belief.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna set up to frustrate and absorb pressure, but were ultimately undone by a late Sturm Graz surge. With just 32% possession and only 4 shots (1 on target), their attacking threat was minimal. The back three, led by Nenad Cvetković, held firm for long stretches, but the sending off proved costly as fatigue and numbers told in the closing stages. Despite their defensive discipline and occasional forays forward, Rapid Vienna's inability to retain the ball or threaten on the break left them vulnerable, and they eventually succumbed to Sturm Graz's relentless pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sturm Graz lined up in a 3-4-3 formation, using their wing-backs to stretch the play and dominate possession. Their midfield trio dictated the tempo, while the front three rotated positions to unsettle Rapid Vienna's backline. The hosts' high pressing and aggressive use of width resulted in a steady stream of chances and corners, though they initially struggled to break down Rapid's compact 3-4-2-1 block. Rapid Vienna were content to sit deep, defend in numbers, and look to hit on the break, but their inability to retain the ball or transition effectively left them under constant pressure. The red card forced them even deeper, and ultimately, the numerical disadvantage proved too much as Sturm Graz's persistence paid off late on.
Turning Point
The red card for Rapid Vienna, which left them a man down and allowed Sturm Graz to finally capitalize with two late goals.
Man of the Match
Otar Kiteishvili
Drove Sturm Graz's attack, was involved in both late goals, and consistently threatened Rapid Vienna's defense.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
Both teams are evenly matched on form and stats, with a high draw rate in recent games and a balanced H2H. The draw is underpriced by the market.
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The Case For This Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction
This is a tightly poised clash between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna, with both sides showing similar form and defensive solidity but lacking attacking consistency. Sturm Graz have been hard to beat but have drawn four of their last five, while Rapid Vienna are struggling for goals and have lost two straight. The head-to-head record is balanced and recent meetings have been close, suggesting another low-scoring, competitive encounter.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Sturm Graz unbeaten in last 5 but with 4 draws
- →Rapid Vienna have lost 3 of last 5 and scored only 4 in that span
Attack
- →Recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring and closely contested
Defence
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game this season
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported
🚩 Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Sturm Graz and 5.4 for Rapid Vienna, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Rapid Viennalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Sturm Graz are on a five-game unbeaten run (WDDDD), though four of those were draws, highlighting a struggle to turn dominance into wins. Rapid Vienna come in on the back of two straight losses and only one win in their last five, with attacking output dropping and defensive lapses evident, especially away from home.
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna
Head-to-head history is balanced, with both sides having recent away wins and most matches decided by a single goal. The last meeting saw Sturm Graz win 2-0 away, but previous encounters have often been tight, with only one draw in the last ten, suggesting a tendency for one side to edge it.
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Sturm Graz wins
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna
The model sees value in the draw at 3.3 odds, with a higher probability than the market implies. Most other markets are fairly priced or lack odds, but the draw stands out due to both teams' recent form and the statistical likelihood of a stalemate. BTTS 'yes' is slightly overpriced and not a value play at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna
- ⚠️No current odds for over/under markets, so value cannot be calculated there
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games limits precision on shot/corner trends
- ⚠️Model confidence reduced due to lack of full data on lineups and set piece threat
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.