Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Rapid Vienna
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Sturm Graz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Rapid Vienna Win
@ 2.63(+8% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Rapid Vienna Outclass 10-Man Sturm Graz in 3-1 Allianz Stadion Triumph
Rapid Vienna delivered a commanding performance at the Allianz Stadion, dispatching Sturm Graz 3-1 in an entertaining Bundesliga clash. The hosts seized the initiative early, netting twice in the opening 20 minutes, only for Sturm Graz to briefly threaten a comeback before a late goal sealed the win. Despite Sturm Graz's efforts and a spirited attacking display, their task was made harder by a second-half red card, which Rapid Vienna exploited to full effect. The match began at a frenetic pace, with Rapid Vienna's attacking quartet combining well to break down Sturm Graz's backline. Goals in the 7th and 17th minutes gave the home side a cushion, but Sturm Graz responded swiftly, pulling one back in the 10th minute. The visitors pushed hard, registering 19 shots overall, but their momentum was stifled by a costly dismissal. Rapid Vienna capitalized, adding a third late on to secure all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Tonni Adamsen puts Rapid Vienna ahead with a composed finish.
10' — Goal
Belmin Beganović equalizes for Sturm Graz, capping a swift counterattack.
17' — Goal
Rapid Vienna restore their lead with a well-worked team goal.
86' — Goal
Rapid Vienna seal the win with a late third goal, exploiting Sturm Graz's tiring defense.
Second half' — Red Card
Sturm Graz reduced to 10 men, shifting the momentum decisively.
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna impressed with their attacking intent and controlled much of the play, enjoying 56% possession and firing 16 shots, 6 of which were on target. Their midfield dictated the tempo, and the front four created numerous chances, especially in the opening stages. Defensively, they remained organized, conceding just once despite facing 19 shots. The late goal capped a professional display, and their discipline—committing only 5 fouls and collecting 2 yellow cards—helped them maintain control.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz showed attacking ambition, outshooting the hosts with 19 attempts and maintaining pressure throughout. Their quick response to Rapid Vienna's opener demonstrated resilience, but they struggled to convert chances, with only 5 shots on target. A red card in the second half undermined their efforts, leaving them exposed defensively and unable to match Rapid Vienna's intensity late on. Discipline was an issue, as they picked up 3 yellow cards and a red, and committed 11 fouls.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Rapid Vienna lined up in a 4-2-3-1, using their double pivot to control midfield and allow their attacking trio behind Adamsen to interchange and exploit space between the lines. Their fullbacks provided width, while the midfield shielded the defense effectively. Sturm Graz opted for a 4-2-2-2, focusing on quick transitions and direct play through their front two. However, their wide midfielders struggled to track Rapid Vienna's overlapping runs, leaving gaps that were exploited, especially after going down to 10 men. The red card forced Sturm Graz to become more compact, but this only invited more pressure, culminating in the late goal that ended the contest.
Turning Point
The red card to Sturm Graz in the second half, which left them a man down and allowed Rapid Vienna to dominate possession and territory, ultimately leading to the decisive third goal.
Man of the Match
Tonni Adamsen
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with relentless energy, setting the tone for Rapid Vienna's attacking display.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz: Match Preview
Rapid Vienna arrive at the Allianz Stadion top of the table, boasting three straight league wins and a staggering 9-0 home aggregate. Their attack is in full flow, averaging 3.67 goals per game in the league and coming off an 8-0 demolition of Grazer AK. Sturm Graz, sitting third, are unbeaten but have drawn two of their four league matches, with a more measured approach and just five goals scored so far.
Statistically, this is a clash of Rapid's relentless attacking output against Sturm Graz's defensive discipline. Rapid's last five matches see them averaging 18.8 shots and 8.2 on target per game, while Sturm Graz allow just 0.8 goals per match in the same span. However, Sturm's own attack has been blunt, with only one BTTS outcome in their last five and all four league matches finishing under 3.5 goals. Corners could be a factor, with Sturm averaging 8 per game recently, but Rapid's set-piece threat is also notable.
The model expects Rapid Vienna's superior attacking numbers and perfect home record to edge this, but Sturm Graz's defensive organisation and recent H2H successes in Vienna mean the draw is a viable outcome if Rapid can't break through early. The market's near-even split underrates Rapid's home strength and slightly overstates Sturm Graz's threat going forward.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz
The market's near-parity on the 1x2 is at odds with Rapid Vienna's dominant home form and attacking stats, which the model rates more highly than the current odds imply. Both the home win and draw offer modest value edges, while the away price looks short given Sturm Graz's attacking struggles. No value was found in goal or BTTS markets due to lack of bookmaker odds.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Rapid Vienna Win@ 2.64
Rapid Vienna are averaging 3.67 goals per game in the league and have not conceded at home, while Sturm Graz's attack has sputtered to just 1.25 goals per game overall and only 0.8 in their last five. The model rates Rapid Vienna at 41% to win, above the 38% implied by the odds, offering a modest value edge.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
Sturm Graz have drawn two of their four league matches and have shown defensive resilience, conceding just two goals in four. With a 30% model probability versus 28.6% implied, the draw is slightly undervalued in a fixture that has produced close contests in recent seasons.
Read more ↓
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz that most previews miss.
- 1Rapid Vienna have kept clean sheets in two of their last three home league matches, conceding just once in the league all season.
- 2Sturm Graz's last five matches have produced just one BTTS outcome and none have gone over 3.5 goals.
- 3The last three H2H meetings in Vienna have all been decided by a single-goal margin (2-1, 0-2, 3-1).
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction
The market has this as a near pick'em, but Rapid Vienna's firepower and home dominance tilt the numbers in their favour. Sturm Graz's defensive solidity keeps them in matches, but their lack of attacking output away from home makes the draw a live runner. The value sits with the hosts and the stalemate, as the away win looks a touch too short given recent trends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Sturm Graz's last 5 matches average just 0.8 goals scored per game.
Defence
- →Rapid Vienna have scored 9 goals in 2 home league games this season without conceding.
- →Rapid Vienna's last 5: 3.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per match; Sturm Graz: 0.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
🚩 Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Rapid Vienna and 5.2 for Sturm Graz, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Rapid Viennalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Rapid Vienna are in rampant form, winning all three league matches and scoring 11 while conceding just once. Their last five in all competitions include an 8-0 league win and a 2-2 away European draw, showing both firepower and resilience. Sturm Graz remain unbeaten in the league but have drawn two of their last three, with their attack struggling for fluency at just 0.8 goals per game in their last five.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz
The last ten meetings are finely balanced, with Sturm Graz edging it five wins to four. Notably, Sturm Graz have won two of the last three visits to Vienna, including a 2-0 win in April 2026, but Rapid also claimed a 2-1 home win in late 2025. Most recent encounters have been tight, with only one draw in the last ten.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Rapid Vienna wins
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz wins
Things to Watch: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz
- ⚠️No injuries reported for either side, but early-season volatility could affect reliability.
- ⚠️Sturm Graz's away record is solid but based on a small sample (2 games, 1 win, 1 draw).
- ⚠️Recent H2H has swung both ways, with Sturm Graz winning two of the last three in Vienna.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Rapid Vienna 2–1 Sturm GrazRapid Vienna's home form and attacking numbers stand out, making a 2-1 home win the likeliest outcome. The single strongest data point is Rapid's 9-0 home goal difference in the league, but the main risk is Sturm Graz's ability to grind out low-scoring draws or snatch a result as seen in recent H2H meetings.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz: Common Questions
Who will win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives Rapid Vienna a 41% chance of victory, with the draw at 30% and Sturm Graz at 29%. Rapid's perfect home record and attacking output make them slight favourites, but the odds suggest a very close contest.
Is there value in backing Rapid Vienna at current odds?
Yes, the model estimates Rapid Vienna's win probability at 41% compared to the 38% implied by Betfair's 2.63 odds, creating an 8% value edge. Their 9-0 home goal difference and 3.67 goals per game are key drivers.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Both teams to score is rated at 52%, with Rapid's strong attack facing a Sturm Graz side that's failed to score in two of their last five. Recent H2Hs in Vienna have seen both teams score in two of the last three.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.