Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Sturm Graz
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
SCR Altach
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+16% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Sturm Graz Edge Altach in Tight Contest at Merkur-Arena
Sturm Graz opened their Bundesliga campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over SCR Altach at the Merkur-Arena, thanks to a late goal in the 78th minute. Despite dominating possession and amassing 17 shots, the hosts struggled to break down a resolute Altach defense until the closing stages. The visitors, organized in a 3-4-3, threatened on the counter and tested Daniil Khudyakov with four shots on target, but ultimately left Graz empty-handed. The match was a tactical battle, with Sturm Graz's 4-4-2 formation allowing them to control the midfield and rack up an impressive 12 corners. Altach, meanwhile, relied on defensive solidity and quick transitions, but their efforts were hampered by two yellow cards and a lack of cutting edge in the final third. In the end, the home side's persistence paid off, sealing all three points in front of their fans.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
78' — Goal
Nelson Weiper breaks the deadlock, finishing a well-worked move to give Sturm Graz the lead.
65' — Yellow Card
Altach's defensive frustration boils over as they pick up their first yellow card.
82' — Yellow Card
Altach receive a second booking as they push for an equalizer.
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying 53% possession and creating the lion's share of opportunities with 17 shots and a remarkable 12 corners. However, their finishing left much to be desired, as only two of their attempts found the target. The midfield quartet worked tirelessly to recycle possession and probe for openings, eventually unlocking the Altach defense late on. Defensively, they remained disciplined, conceding just four shots on target and committing only six fouls.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
SCR Altach
Altach set up with a compact 3-4-3 and frustrated Sturm Graz for much of the match, defending deep and looking to hit on the break. They managed nine shots, four on target, and forced Khudyakov into action, but lacked the composure to capitalize on their chances. The visitors' discipline wavered late on, picking up two yellow cards as they tried to stem the tide. Ultimately, their inability to maintain focus in the closing stages proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sturm Graz lined up in a classic 4-4-2, using their wide midfielders to stretch the play and create overloads on the flanks. Their dominance in possession (53%) and set-piece opportunities (12 corners) reflected their territorial advantage, though a lack of incisiveness in the box limited their scoring chances. Altach's 3-4-3 prioritized defensive solidity, with three center-backs and two holding midfielders shielding the back line. The visitors looked to exploit space behind the Sturm Graz full-backs on the break, but their transitions often fizzled out due to a lack of support and composure in the final third. Both sides made tactical tweaks through substitutions, but the overall shapes remained consistent. Sturm Graz's persistence and ability to recycle possession eventually wore down Altach, whose defensive discipline slipped late on, leading to the decisive goal.
Turning Point
Nelson Weiper's 78th-minute goal, breaking a tense deadlock and forcing Altach to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Nelson Weiper
Scored the only goal of the game and was a constant threat to the Altach defense.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach: Match Preview
Sturm Graz return to Merkur-Arena after a mixed start to their campaign, having drawn 1-1 away at WSG Wattens and suffered a 0-2 defeat at Fenerbahçe in Europe. Their recent five-match run features three wins, but only one in domestic competition, and their league attack has yet to ignite. SCR Altach, meanwhile, sit third after two rounds, having beaten Wattens 3-1 at home but lost 0-1 away to Rapid Vienna. Their last five in all competitions show four wins, though the majority came against lower-calibre or pre-season opposition.
The statistical profile points to a low-tempo, low-output affair. Sturm Graz's last five average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, with three clean sheets and only one match seeing both teams score. Altach's last five show similar defensive solidity (0.6 conceded per game) but a much lower shot volume (3.8 per game) and a muted away attack. Both sides' season over 2.5 rates are at or below 50%, and first-half goals have been scarce. Set-piece and discipline data are unremarkable, with neither side averaging more than 2.8 corners or 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Given the underlying rates and the head-to-head trend—seven wins in ten for Sturm Graz, but rarely by more than a single goal—the model expects a balanced, low-scoring contest. The likeliest outcome is a 1-1 draw, with neither side consistently generating high-quality chances or dominating possession. Margins are slim, and a single error or set-piece could swing the result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach that most previews miss.
- 1Sturm Graz have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding only once in domestic play.
- 2Altach's last five matches average just 3.8 shots and 1.4 shots on target per game, indicating a lack of attacking volume.
- 3Only three of the last ten head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score, and four of those ten ended with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.51
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, compared to a bookmaker implied probability of 29.4% (odds 3.4), with the underlying rates pointing to a low-scoring, balanced contest and a history of close H2H results.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 2.05
Both sides have averaged under one goal conceded per game in their last five, only three of the last ten H2H meetings saw both teams score, and the model rates BTTS 'no' at 51% versus an implied 48.8%.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction
Statistical indicators point to a tight, low-scoring encounter at Merkur-Arena, with neither side showing a clear attacking edge and both defences trending solid over recent matches. The distribution of goals, shots, and clean sheets suggests a contest likely to be decided by fine margins rather than sustained pressure or high-quality chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →SCR Altach's away output is muted (0 goals scored, 1 conceded in their sole away league match), and their last five average just 1.6 goals for and 0.6 against per game.
Match Context
- →Sturm Graz have averaged just 1.0 goal for and 1.0 against in league play so far, with a 0% over 2.5 rate.
- →Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Sturm Graz, but three of the last four featured two goals or fewer.
🚩 Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.1 corners for Sturm Graz and 4.6 for SCR Altach, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Sturm Graz and SCR Altach Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SCR Altachlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Graz arrive with a mixed bag: three wins and a draw in their last five, but only one domestic league point and a recent 0-2 European defeat. Altach have four wins in five, but their only away league match ended in a 0-1 defeat and their shot output has been modest. Both sides have looked defensively stable but lack sustained attacking threat.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
Sturm Graz have dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings, including a 2-0 home win in March 2026. However, most matches have been tight, with only three of the last ten seeing both teams score and several ending with under 2.5 goals.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Sturm Graz wins
2
Draws
1
SCR Altach wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
The standout value is on the draw at odds of 3.4, where the model's 34% probability is notably higher than the market implied 29.4%. There is also a modest edge on BTTS 'no', reflecting the low scoring and clean sheet trends in both teams' recent data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
- ⚠️Both teams have only one league away/home match played this season, so home/away splits are not yet robust.
- ⚠️Recent form includes European and cup fixtures, potentially distorting league-specific rates.
- ⚠️Absence of over/under odds constrains value analysis on goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sturm Graz 1–1 SCR AltachThe model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' defensive records and the lack of attacking volume, especially from Altach away from home. The single strongest data point is the underwhelming shot and goal output from both sides in recent league play. The main risk is that early season volatility or a set-piece goal opens up the contest, but the rates favour a low-scoring stalemate.
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach: Common Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
The model gives Sturm Graz a 38% chance to win, Altach a 28% chance, and the draw a 34% probability. With both sides showing defensive strength and limited attacking output, the draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
The probability for both teams to score is rated at 49%, with the 'no' outcome at 51%. Only three of the last ten head-to-head meetings saw both teams score, and both sides have averaged under one goal conceded per game recently.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Under 2.5 goals is more probable at 57%, compared to 43% for over 2.5. Both teams have shown low scoring rates in the league so far, and most recent head-to-head meetings have been low-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.