SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
SCR Altach
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Sturm Graz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
@ 1.85(+8% edge)
Recommended Bets: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz: Match Preview
Altach’s recent resurgence has injected optimism into a season that began with eight defeats in twelve, as they’ve strung together three wins in their last five across all competitions. However, their last league outing—a 0-3 defeat to Hartberg—was a sobering reminder of their defensive fragility, and they remain just one place above the relegation zone. Sturm Graz, sitting fifth, have stuttered of late with no wins in their last five in all competitions, but their attacking output remains robust, and they’ll be eager to halt their slide to stay in touch with the European places.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by both sides’ attacking momentum and defensive leaks. Altach have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, with a notable surge in shots and late goals, while Sturm Graz have generated a hefty 16.6 shots per game but conceded 13 goals in their last five. Both teams have seen BTTS in the majority of recent matches, and neither has managed more than one clean sheet in their last five. Set-piece opportunities could be plentiful, with Sturm Graz averaging 5 corners per game and Altach’s home matches seeing a combined 8 corners on average.
The model expects a high-tempo encounter, with Sturm Graz’s superior attacking depth and historical edge likely to prove decisive. Altach’s improved form is acknowledged, but their defensive record and tendency to concede late goals suggest Sturm Graz are well placed to take advantage, especially if the match opens up after the break. A 2-1 away win is forecast, with both teams finding the net but the visitors’ firepower making the difference.
How SCR Altach and Sturm Graz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SCR Altachlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Altach have found a spark in recent weeks, winning three of their last five across all competitions and averaging 2.4 goals per game in that stretch. However, their league form remains patchy, with a heavy 0-3 defeat to Hartberg still fresh. Sturm Graz, despite going five games without a win, continue to create chances at a high rate and have scored in every one of their last five, but defensive lapses have cost them points.
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz that most previews miss.
- 1Sturm Graz have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding 13 goals in that span.
- 2Altach’s last five have averaged 3.6 total goals per game, with six of their last nine league matches going over 2.5 goals.
- 3Both teams have scored in all of Sturm Graz’s last five matches and three of Altach’s last five, indicating a strong BTTS trend.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Prediction
Altach come into this fixture with a recent upturn, claiming three wins in their last five matches across all competitions, including a morale-boosting 5-1 friendly victory and a 4-0 cup win. However, their league form remains fragile, with a heavy 0-3 defeat to Hartberg last time out and a season record of eight losses in twelve. Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have hit a rocky patch, going five games without a win in all competitions, but their underlying attacking numbers—16.6 shots and 2 goals per game over the last five—suggest their performances are better than results indicate. The tactical battle pivots on Altach’s recent attacking momentum at home (11 goals in six home league games) against Sturm Graz’s high-volume approach, which has seen them average 27 and 30 shots in two of their last five matches. Both sides are vulnerable defensively: Altach have conceded in four of their last five, while Sturm Graz have not kept a clean sheet in that span and have allowed 2.6 goals per game. The data points to a match where both teams are likely to score, with neither defence showing enough stability to shut the other out. Given Altach’s improved attacking output but persistent defensive frailty, and Sturm Graz’s superior overall quality and strong away record, the model expects Sturm Graz to edge a lively contest. The most likely scenario is a 2-1 away win, with the visitors’ attacking depth and Altach’s tendency to concede late goals tipping the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Altach have scored 12 goals in their last five matches in all competitions, but have also conceded six in that span.
- →Sturm Graz have averaged 16.6 shots and 2 goals per game over their last five, but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches.
Match Context
- →Sturm Graz have won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season.
Where the Model Sees Value: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win@ 1.88
Sturm Graz have scored 10 goals in their last five matches and have lost only two of their last six away league games, while Altach have managed just one clean sheet in their last five and have lost eight of twelve overall.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.52
Both teams have seen BTTS land in three of Altach’s last five and all of Sturm Graz’s last five, with both averaging over 2 goals scored per game in that span.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
🚩 SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for SCR Altach and 5.7 for Sturm Graz, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
What History Says: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz have dominated the head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten meetings and conceding more than once only once in that run. Altach’s lone recent win came in a cup tie, and Sturm Graz edged the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season. Draws have been rare, with just two in the last ten encounters.
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
SCR Altach wins
2
Draws
7
Sturm Graz wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
The model sees value in the away win at 1.85, with a calculated 8% edge over the implied probability, given Sturm Graz’s attacking strength and Altach’s defensive record. There’s also a modest edge on both teams to score at 1.53, with both sides trending towards high-scoring, open games in recent weeks. These markets align with the recent form and underlying match dynamics.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
- ⚠️Sturm Graz's recent form is mixed, with five games without a win despite strong attacking metrics.
- ⚠️Altach’s recent upturn includes cup and friendly matches, which may overstate their true league form.
- ⚠️No key injuries reported, but lineups are unknown at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SCR Altach 1–2 Sturm GrazThe model predicts a 2-1 win for Sturm Graz, with the strongest data point being their consistently high attacking output—16.6 shots and 2 goals per game over the last five—against an Altach side that has conceded in four of their last five. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Altach’s recent attacking momentum at home translates into a more clinical performance, or if Sturm Graz’s defensive lapses persist and allow the hosts to capitalise late.
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz: Common Questions
Who will win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz are favoured by the model, with a 50% probability of winning compared to Altach’s 23%, based on their superior attacking numbers and dominant head-to-head record.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
There’s a 62% chance of both teams scoring, as both sides have seen BTTS in the majority of their recent matches and neither has kept a clean sheet in their last five.
Can Altach’s recent form continue against Sturm Graz?
Altach have improved, winning three of their last five, but their underlying defensive numbers and a poor record against Sturm Graz (one win in ten) suggest sustaining this run will be difficult.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.