Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Lask Linz
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
TSV Hartberg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 5.25(+31% edge)
Recommended Bets: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg: Match Preview
Lask Linz come into this fixture on a three-match winning streak, having scored ten goals in their last three competitive outings. They sit third in the Bundesliga, five points clear of Hartberg, who themselves have climbed to fourth after a strong run featuring three wins and a draw in their last four league matches. The market rates Lask as clear favourites at 1.30, but the underlying data and recent H2H record suggest a much tighter contest than the odds imply.
Statistically, Lask's home attack is formidable, averaging 2.17 goals per home game and 18.2 shots per match over the last five. However, their defensive record is less convincing, with only one clean sheet in the last five and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match in that span. Hartberg, meanwhile, have scored in every away league game this season and are averaging 2.0 goals per game over their last five matches, while their defence has improved recently with three clean sheets in that period. Set-piece numbers are balanced, with both sides averaging 4–5 corners per game, but Lask's higher foul and card count could be a factor if the match becomes scrappy.
Given the high draw rate in recent H2H meetings and both teams' attacking consistency, the model expects an open contest with goals at both ends. Lask's edge in shot creation and home advantage is offset by Hartberg's resilience and proven ability to score away. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win or a high-scoring draw, with the draw price offering the clearest value against market expectations.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
The biggest value edge is on the draw, where the model's 25% probability far exceeds the market's 19% at 5.25 odds. Hartberg's win is also slightly overpriced, with the model giving them a 16% chance compared to the market's 13%. There is little value on the favourite Lask at current odds, and the goal markets are broadly in line with the model's expectations.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 5.05
The model assigns a 25% probability to the draw, while the market's implied probability is just 19% at 5.25 odds, creating a +31% edge. With six draws in the last ten H2H meetings and both sides showing resilience, the price on the draw is notably inflated relative to the true risk.
Read more ↓
Match Result: TSV Hartberg Win@ 7.99
Hartberg's away win probability is 16% by the model versus just 13% implied at 7.5, for a +20% edge. Hartberg have scored in every away league match and come off back-to-back clean sheets, so the long odds slightly overstate their underdog status.
Read more ↓
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 3-3 or 2-2.
- 2Lask Linz have scored in all but one home league match this season but kept just two clean sheets in six.
- 3Hartberg's last five league matches have averaged just 0.8 goals conceded per game, a notable defensive improvement over their season average (1.58).
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.25
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction
Lask Linz are priced as heavy favourites at home, but the data suggests the gap to Hartberg is narrower than the market implies. Both sides arrive in strong form, with Lask on a three-match winning streak and Hartberg unbeaten in four league games, including a 4-0 away win at Grazer AK. The head-to-head history is loaded with draws, and Hartberg have shown they can score and compete away from home.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Lask Linz average 2.8 goals scored per game over their last five matches, but have kept just one clean sheet in that span.
- →Hartberg have scored in every away league match this season and have three clean sheets in their last five competitive games.
Match Context
- →Six of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, including a 3-3 draw earlier this season.
🚩 Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Lask Linz and 4.8 for TSV Hartberg, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lask Linzlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lask Linz are on a three-match winning run, scoring four goals in each of their last two outings and losing just once in their last five. Hartberg have also found momentum, unbeaten in their last four league matches and conceding only one goal in their last three Bundesliga games. Both sides have scored in every league match over the last five, underlining their attacking consistency.
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
The head-to-head record is dominated by draws, with six of the last ten meetings ending level and several high-scoring stalemates. Lask Linz have not lost to Hartberg in this period, but Hartberg have consistently found the net, scoring in nine of those ten encounters. The last meeting finished 3-3, continuing the trend of open, competitive matches.
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Lask Linz wins
6
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg wins
Things to Watch: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
- ⚠️Lask Linz's recent attacking output is inflated by a 4-0 European win; domestic defensive lapses remain.
- ⚠️Hartberg's away record is mixed (2W 1D 2L), and their defensive numbers are weaker over the full season than in the last five games.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Lask Linz 2–1 TSV HartbergThe model predicts a 2-1 win for Lask Linz, but the strongest data point is the extraordinary draw rate in this fixture—six draws in the last ten meetings, including a 3-3 earlier this season. If Lask's defensive lapses persist and Hartberg's attack continues to deliver on the road, the draw becomes a real possibility and is overpriced by the market.
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg: Common Questions
Who will win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz are favourites with a 59% win probability, but the model gives a substantial 25% chance to the draw—much higher than the market's implied 19%. Hartberg's away form and the H2H draw trend both suggest this is closer than the odds indicate.
Is there value in betting the draw for Lask Linz vs Hartberg?
Yes, the draw is priced at 5.25 (implied 19%) while the model assigns a 25% probability, creating a +31% edge. With six draws in the last ten meetings, the draw is notably overpriced.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Hartberg?
Both teams to score is rated at 57% probability by the model, reflecting that Lask have only one clean sheet in their last five and Hartberg have scored in every away league match this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.