Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Predictions
FA Women's Cup · England
Sutton Coldfield Town W
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 3
Derby County W
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
6/10Derby County W Edge Sutton Coldfield Town W on Penalties in FA Women's Cup Thriller
In a tense FA Women's Cup clash, Derby County Women triumphed over Sutton Coldfield Town Women after a 1-1 draw in regular time, eventually sealing their passage via a dramatic penalty shootout. Both sides battled fiercely, with neither able to break the deadlock decisively in open play, forcing the contest into spot-kicks. The match was characterized by resolute defending and few clear-cut chances, as the teams cancelled each other out over 90 minutes. Despite the lack of detailed match statistics and lineups, the narrative was one of determination and grit, with both teams refusing to yield. The absence of yellow or red cards underscored the disciplined approach adopted by both sides. Ultimately, Derby County W held their nerve from the spot, booking their place in the next round at Sutton Coldfield's expense.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 3
Actual
1 - 1
Key Moments
Full Time' — End of Regulation
The match ends 1-1 after a hard-fought 90 minutes, with both sides unable to find a winner.
Penalty Shootout' — Penalty Shootout
Derby County W prevail in the shootout, booking their place in the next round.
Sutton Coldfield Town W
Sutton Coldfield Town W matched their opponents for the duration, showing defensive solidity and composure under pressure. Their ability to keep Derby County W at bay for long stretches was commendable, and they managed to force the tie into penalties after a 1-1 draw in regulation time. However, Sutton Coldfield Town W were unable to find the cutting edge in front of goal, and their cup run ended in heartbreak as they fell short in the shootout.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby County W
Derby County W demonstrated resilience and mental toughness, recovering from the setback of conceding to draw level and ultimately prevailing in the penalty shootout. Their focus and execution from the spot were the difference-makers on the day. While Derby County W could not secure victory in regulation time, their ability to hold their nerve in high-pressure moments ensured their progression in the FA Women's Cup.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no detailed lineup or formation data available, both teams appeared to prioritize defensive organization and discipline, as reflected in the low-scoring draw and absence of bookings. The match was a tactical stalemate, with each side nullifying the other's attacking threats. The lack of open play goals suggests both teams struggled to create clear chances, relying instead on set pieces and counter-attacks. As the match wore on, the tension grew, and neither manager was able to inspire a breakthrough, leading to the inevitability of penalties. The shootout highlighted Derby County W's superior composure and mental preparation.
Turning Point
The penalty shootout, where Derby County W held their nerve and converted their spot-kicks to secure victory.
Man of the Match
Derby County W Penalty Takers
Showed composure and accuracy under immense pressure to win the shootout.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W: Match Preview
Sutton Coldfield Town W and Derby County W enter this FA Women's Cup tie off the back of unpredictable, high-scoring recent form. Sutton Coldfield have alternated between heavy defeats and emphatic wins, with their last five matches yielding a 2.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded per game average. Derby County W have been similarly volatile, posting a 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded average, and neither side has managed more than two clean sheets in their last five.
Statistically, the matchup is set up for goals. Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency—Sutton Coldfield with an 8-0 and 4-0 win, Derby County W with a 6-0 away victory—while also showing defensive frailty against quality opposition. The lack of consistent defensive performances, combined with three matches of five or more goals from Derby County W and two from Sutton Coldfield in their last five, points to a high-probability over 2.5 goals scenario. The absence of reliable shot, possession, or set-piece data means the model leans heavily on recent goal rates.
Given the attacking rates and defensive lapses on both sides, the model expects an open contest with Derby County W's slightly steadier attack giving them the edge. The most probable outcomes are 2-3 and 2-2, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals rating as the strongest statistical leans. Defensive volatility remains the main risk factor, as either side could unravel if early goals arrive.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 2.10
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
BTTS: Yes
72%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 2-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W that most previews miss.
- 1Sutton Coldfield Town W's last five matches have averaged 6.0 total goals per game, with two matches ending 7-0 or 8-0.
- 2Derby County W have seen both teams score in three of their last five FA Women's Cup fixtures.
- 3Across both teams' last ten matches, only three clean sheets have been recorded, underscoring defensive instability.
Who do you think wins: Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More FA Women's Cup Predictions
The Case For This Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Prediction
Both Sutton Coldfield Town W and Derby County W approach this FA Women's Cup tie with erratic recent form and a notable tendency for high-scoring matches. Sutton Coldfield's last five outings have averaged six goals per game, with two heavy defeats (0-7, 0-8) offset by a pair of convincing wins, while Derby County W have also seen plenty of attacking action, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match in the same span. Neither side has shown consistent defensive solidity, with only three clean sheets combined in their last ten matches. The statistical profile points to a high-goal environment. Both teams have failed to keep goals out, and each has produced at least one four-goal haul in their last five. Sutton Coldfield's attack is volatile but capable, as shown by their 8-0 and 4-0 wins, but their defence has collapsed against stronger opposition. Derby County W's attack is similarly productive, with a 6-0 away win and a 4-1 home victory, but they have also conceded heavily when stepping up in class. With both sides averaging over 2.5 goals conceded per game recently, the over 2.5 goals market rates strongly. Given these numbers, the model expects an open contest with Derby County W's slightly more consistent attack edging it. The likeliest scorelines cluster around 2-3 and 2-2, with both teams to score a strong statistical favourite. The main uncertainty lies in the defensive volatility—either side could collapse if early goals open the game up.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sutton Coldfield Town W have conceded 15 goals in their last five matches, including two defeats by seven or more goals.
- →Derby County W have scored 11 and conceded 13 in their last five, with three matches seeing at least five goals.
Match Context
- →Both teams have failed to score in only three of their last ten combined matches, supporting a high BTTS probability.
How Sutton Coldfield Town W and Derby County W Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Sutton Coldfield Town Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Derby County Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Sutton Coldfield Town W's recent form has been erratic, with two heavy defeats (0-7, 0-8) offset by emphatic wins (8-0, 4-0), resulting in a 'LLWLW' form string and a current two-match losing streak. Derby County W have also alternated between convincing wins and clear defeats, posting a 'LWWLL' string and averaging 2.4 goals scored per match over their last five. Both sides have struggled for consistency, particularly defensively.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W
There is no head-to-head data available for these teams, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can be cited for this matchup.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Sutton Coldfield Town W wins
1
Draws
0
Derby County W wins
Things to Watch: Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W
- ⚠️No league standings or full season records are available for either side, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds prevents identification of value edges or recommended bets.
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available, so historical matchup trends cannot be factored.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sutton Coldfield Town W 2–3 Derby County WThe model projects a 3-2 away win for Derby County W, primarily driven by both teams' high goals-for and goals-against averages over their last five matches. The single strongest data point is the combined 5.0+ goals per game average for both sides recently. The main threat to this prediction is the lack of reliable league form or head-to-head data, which increases the risk of an outlier defensive performance from either team.
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W: Common Questions
Who will win Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W?
The model gives Derby County W a 45% chance of victory, with Sutton Coldfield Town W at 32% and the draw at 23%. This is based on both teams' recent attacking output and defensive records.
Will both teams score in Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W?
Yes is favoured at 69% probability, as both teams have averaged over 2 goals scored per game and have kept only three clean sheets between them in their last ten matches.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 74%, reflecting the high-scoring nature of both sides' recent FA Women's Cup fixtures, with multiple matches finishing 4-1, 6-0, 7-0, or 8-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Resources
Sutton Coldfield Town W Predictions
All Sutton Coldfield Town W fixtures & tips
Derby County W Predictions
All Derby County W fixtures & tips
Sutton Coldfield Town W vs Derby County W Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
FA Women's Cup Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results