Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Predictions

Tamworth PredictionsSutton Utd PredictionsNational LeagueH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
National LeagueNational League · England
high confidence
Tamworth

Tamworth

AI Predicted Score

1 - 1

Sutton Utd

Sutton Utd

🗓️ Wednesday, 30 Sept 2026 at 19:45 BST (venue time) · 18:45 UTC (your time)📍 The Lamb Ground, Tamworth

Win Probability (1X2)

Tamworth 31%Draw 36%Sutton Utd 33%

Best Value Pick

BTTS: Yes

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Recommended Bets: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd

BTTS: Yes
7/10
Correct Score: 1–1
6/10

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd: Match Preview

Tamworth enter this fixture in 21st place, having just snapped a four-match winless run with a 2-1 home victory over Wealdstone. Their season has been defined by volatility at both ends: 16 goals scored and 23 conceded in nine games, with every league match featuring at least three goals. Sutton Utd, sixth in the table, have steadied after a three-game losing streak, taking four points from their last two, but their attack has cooled—just three goals in their last five outings.

The statistical contrast is sharp: Tamworth's home matches average 3.75 goals, but they have not kept a single clean sheet all season, and both teams have scored in all five of their most recent league games. Sutton Utd, by contrast, are far tighter on the road—just four goals conceded in four away matches, with a clean sheet rate of 33%. Tamworth's attack will test Sutton's defensive structure, but Sutton's own output away from home (1.25 goals per game) is modest, and their recent tendency to start slowly is notable (just two first-half goals in last five).

The model projects a moderate goal environment, with Tamworth's attacking ambition counterbalanced by Sutton's defensive discipline. The likeliest scenario is a low-scoring draw, with both sides finding the net but neither able to assert dominance for long stretches. A 1-1 outcome best fits the underlying rates and recent trends.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Tamworth1.30

Expected goals · model says 1.30

Sutton Utd1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Win Probability
Tamworth 36% Draw 26% Sutton Utd 38%

Over 2.5 Goals

49%

BTTS: Yes

54%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
31%
36%
33%
Tamworth 31%Draw 36%Sutton Utd 33%
Both Teams to Score
63%
37%
Yes 63%No 37%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
54%
46%
Over 2.5 54%Under 2.5 46%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Tamworth vs Sutton Utd that most previews miss.

  • 1Tamworth's last nine league matches have all finished over 2.5 goals, but Sutton Utd's away games have gone under 2.5 in three of four.
  • 2Both teams have scored in 100% of Tamworth's league fixtures, but only 44% of Sutton's.
  • 3Sutton Utd have failed to score in three of their last five, but their away defence is among the best in the league (1.0 conceded per away game).

Who do you think wins: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Prediction

A statistical deadlock is forecast at The Lamb Ground, with Tamworth's porous defence and high-scoring home matches offset by Sutton Utd's more compact, lower-scoring away profile. Both sides' underlying rates point to a moderate goal environment, and the most likely outcome is a closely contested draw.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Tamworth's league matches average 4.33 goals per game, the highest in the division.

Defence

  • →Sutton Utd concede just 1.0 goal per away match and score 1.25, both below league average.

Match Context

  • →BTTS has landed in all of Tamworth's last five, but Sutton have failed to score in three of their last five.

How Tamworth and Sutton Utd Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

TamworthTamworthlast 5 matches
N. TshikunaXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

J. Hutchinsonsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

B. MilnesXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

R. CalderXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. RobertsXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

K. DonnellyXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Sutton UtdSutton Utdlast 5 matches
D. Ogbonnasub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

E. OsadebeXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

B. NjokuXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Tamworth have struggled for consistency, with just two wins from nine and a defensive record that has seen them concede 23 times already. However, they have scored in every match and just beat Wealdstone to halt a losing run. Sutton Utd have cooled after a strong start, with three defeats in their last five and only three goals scored in that stretch, but remain in the playoff positions thanks to a solid defensive base.

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd — Last 9 Matches

TamworthTamworthLast 9 results
W2-1
L1-3
L1-3
D2-2
L2-3
W3-2
L1-4
L1-2
D3-3
Wvs Wealdstone2-1
L@ Southend1-3
L@ Harrogate Town1-3
Dvs Boston United2-2
L@ Yeovil Town2-3
Wvs Worthing3-2
L@ FC Halifax Town1-4
Lvs AFC Fylde1-2
D@ Boreham Wood3-3

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
  • −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Sutton UtdSutton UtdLast 9 results
D1-1
W2-1
L0-2
L0-3
L0-2
W1-0
W2-1
W1-0
W3-0
D@ FC Halifax Town1-1
Wvs Eastleigh2-1
Lvs Scunthorpe0-2
L@ Barrow0-3
Lvs Wealdstone0-2
W@ Gateshead1-0
Wvs Hartlepool2-1
Wvs Altrincham1-0
W@ Woking3-0

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
  • −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches

What History Says: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd

The last five meetings between Tamworth and Sutton Utd are evenly balanced, with two wins apiece and one draw. Most encounters have been tightly contested, with only one of the last five producing more than three goals and the most recent at The Lamb Ground ending 0-1 to Sutton.

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings between these sides

2

Tamworth wins

1

Draws

2

Sutton Utd wins

40%20% draws40%
24 Jan 26Tamworth vs Sutton Utd0-1
13 Sept 25Sutton Utd vs Tamworth2-3
7 Jan 25Sutton Utd vs Tamworth1-0
21 Dec 24Sutton Utd vs Tamworth1-2
10 Aug 24Tamworth vs Sutton Utd1-1

Things to Watch: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of modelling; no value edges can be calculated.
  • ⚠️Absence of shot, possession, and set piece data reduces confidence in tactical matchup assessment.
  • ⚠️Recent Sutton Utd attacking output is volatile, with three blanks in last five.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Tamworth 1–1 Sutton Utd

The model's final call is a 1-1 draw, driven by Tamworth's extreme over 2.5 trend (100%) and Sutton Utd's disciplined away defence (just 4 conceded in 4). The biggest risk is that Tamworth's defensive frailty (2.56 conceded per game) allows Sutton Utd to rediscover their scoring touch and tip the balance.

Tamworth vs Sutton Utd: Common Questions

Who will win Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

The model rates this as a near dead heat: Tamworth win 31%, draw 36%, Sutton Utd win 33%. The most probable outcome is a draw, with both sides' scoring and concession rates converging near league average.

Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

Yes is favoured at 63% probability. Tamworth have seen BTTS in all nine league matches, while Sutton Utd have failed to score in three of their last five but average 1.25 goals per away game.

How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?

The model gives over 2.5 goals a 54% chance, reflecting Tamworth's 100% over 2.5 record and Sutton Utd's more conservative away profile (just 44% over 2.5 for the season).

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tamworth vs Sutton Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 23 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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