Trefelin vs Flint Town United Predictions
Premier League · Wales
Trefelin
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Flint Town United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Recommended Bets: Trefelin vs Flint Town United
Trefelin vs Flint Town United: Match Preview
Trefelin enter the match rooted in 15th place, having collected just one win in 13 games and failing to win any of their six home fixtures (0W 1D 5L, 2 scored, 15 conceded). Their recent form string of 'WLLDL' includes a rare away win at Cardiff MET but also heavy defeats, highlighting ongoing defensive issues. Flint Town United sit two points and one place above, with a 'LWWLL' run that includes a 3-0 home win over Ammanford but also two recent home defeats, suggesting inconsistency rather than momentum.
The statistical matchup is shaped by both sides' defensive vulnerabilities: Trefelin concede 2.38 goals per game (31 in 13), while Flint Town United's away defence is similarly porous, shipping 17 in 7 away games (2.43 per game). Offensively, neither side excels—Trefelin average just 0.62 goals per game, while Flint Town United manage 0.92, but both have failed to score in two of their last five. Notably, Trefelin have not kept a single clean sheet all season, and Flint have two in their last five, hinting at a marginal edge for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53.85% of matches for both teams, and both tend to concede more after the break (Trefelin: 3 first-half, 2 second-half goals in last five).
Given these rates, the model expects a slightly above-average goal environment, with Flint Town United's marginally superior attack and recent clean sheets tipping the balance. The likeliest scenario is a narrow away win, but the draw is a strong runner given both teams' difficulties converting chances and closing out games. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 to Flint Town United, with a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 away win also in the mix.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Trefelin vs Flint Town United that most previews miss.
- 1Trefelin have scored just 2 goals in 6 home matches, the lowest home output in the division.
- 2Flint Town United have conceded 17 goals in 7 away games, a rate of 2.43 per match.
- 3Over 2.5 goals has landed in exactly 53.85% of league matches for both sides.
Who do you think wins: Trefelin vs Flint Town United?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Trefelin vs Flint Town United(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, reflecting both teams' struggles to convert marginal advantages and their tendency for low-scoring, competitive matches; however, no odds are available to assess value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 53.85% of league matches, and their combined average concession rates suggest a slightly goal-prone environment.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Trefelin's last 5 and the model rates both attacks as capable of scoring given the defensive records, but marginally over a coin flip.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Trefelin vs Flint Town United Prediction
Statistically, this fixture pits two of the league's lowest-ranked sides with defences that concede well above league average. Trefelin's home record is particularly weak, while Flint Town United, though only marginally better, have shown slightly more attacking output and a higher clean sheet rate. The expected goal environment is above average due to both teams' defensive frailties.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Trefelin have conceded 2.38 goals per game this season, with only 2 goals scored in 6 home matches.
- →Flint Town United average 0.92 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game, with 17 goals shipped in 7 away fixtures.
- →Neither side has a clean sheet at home (Trefelin) or a strong away attack (Flint Town United: 5 goals in 7 away).
How Trefelin and Flint Town United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Trefelinlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flint Town Unitedlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Trefelin have endured a torrid campaign, winning just once in 13 and suffering five defeats in their last seven. Their only recent bright spot was a 3-1 win at Cardiff MET, but otherwise they have struggled badly at both ends. Flint Town United have shown slightly more resilience, winning two of their last five (including away at Haverfordwest), but remain inconsistent with three losses in the same span.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Trefelin vs Flint Town United
With no bookmaker odds available, direct value edges cannot be calculated. However, the model's probabilities suggest the draw and away win are more likely than a home win, and the over 2.5 goals market is marginally above a coin flip, reflecting the underlying rates. Value may emerge if bookmakers underrate the likelihood of goals or a stalemate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Trefelin vs Flint Town United
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Lack of granular shot, possession, and set-piece data restricts tactical depth.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Trefelin 1–2 Flint Town UnitedThe model projects a 2-1 win for Flint Town United, driven primarily by Trefelin's league-worst home attack (0.33 goals per home game) and chronic inability to keep clean sheets. The main risk is that both teams' poor attacking records and high draw probability (36%) could result in a low-scoring stalemate.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United: Common Questions
Who will win Trefelin vs Flint Town United?
Flint Town United are rated a 42% chance to win, with Trefelin at 22% and the draw at 36%. The model leans towards the visitors due to their slightly better attack and recent away form.
Will both teams score in Trefelin vs Flint Town United?
The model gives a 51% probability to both teams scoring, reflecting each side's defensive frailties and the fact that BTTS has landed in 3 of Trefelin's last 5 matches.
How many goals are expected in Trefelin vs Flint Town United?
Over 2.5 goals is rated a 54% chance, with both teams averaging over 2 goals conceded per match and over 2.5 goals landing in 53.85% of their league games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Trefelin vs Flint Town United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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