TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Austria Vienna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Austria Vienna Win
@ 2.11
Match Result
6.8/10Clinical Austria Vienna See Off Hartberg With 2-0 Away Win
Austria Vienna delivered a composed and efficient performance on the road, dispatching TSV Hartberg 2-0 at the Profertil Arena. The visitors struck in both halves, first breaking the deadlock in the 33rd minute before sealing the result with a second goal in the 76th. Hartberg, despite enjoying 55% possession and winning eight corners, struggled to convert their territorial advantage into clear-cut chances, managing just three shots on target from 12 attempts. Austria Vienna’s disciplined 3-4-2-1 formation provided a solid defensive base and allowed them to transition quickly, ultimately outshooting the hosts and looking more incisive in the final third. The victory was underpinned by clinical finishing and a resolute defensive display, as Hartberg were left frustrated by their inability to break down the visitors’ backline.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
33' — Goal
Kelvin Boateng scores to give Austria Vienna a 1-0 lead, finishing off a swift attacking move.
45' — Yellow Card
Tobias Kainz is booked for a late challenge as Hartberg’s frustrations begin to show.
76' — Goal
Julian Hettwer doubles Austria Vienna’s advantage with a composed finish.
82' — Yellow Card
Fabian Wilfinger receives a yellow card for Hartberg as the hosts push in vain for a response.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg started brightly, controlling possession and pushing forward with their wingbacks in a 5-3-2 setup. They amassed eight corners and 55% of the ball, but their attacking efforts lacked penetration, with only three of twelve shots testing the opposition goalkeeper. As the match wore on, their frustration grew, and they were unable to respond after conceding in both halves. Defensively, the back five struggled to deal with Austria Vienna’s fluid front three, particularly on transitions.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna executed their game plan with impressive discipline, soaking up Hartberg’s early pressure before striking with precision. Their 3-4-2-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed them to break forward efficiently, resulting in 13 shots (four on target) and two well-taken goals. The visitors managed the game effectively after taking the lead, showing composure and tactical awareness to limit Hartberg’s opportunities and hit on the counter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hartberg set up in a 5-3-2, aiming to control the midfield and exploit width through their wingbacks. While this approach yielded more possession and corners, it left them exposed to Austria Vienna’s swift transitions. The visitors’ 3-4-2-1 formation was compact defensively and fluid in attack, with the two advanced midfielders supporting lone striker Boateng effectively. Austria Vienna’s ability to absorb pressure and spring forward was key, as was their disciplined pressing, which limited Hartberg’s ability to create clear chances from open play. Set pieces provided Hartberg with their best opportunities, but Austria Vienna’s back three and goalkeeper stood firm.
Turning Point
Kelvin Boateng’s opener in the 33rd minute shifted momentum decisively in Austria Vienna’s favor, forcing Hartberg to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Kelvin Boateng
Scored the crucial first goal and led the line expertly, setting the tone for Austria Vienna’s win.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna: Match Preview
Hartberg enter this fixture without a point or a goal from their opening two Bundesliga matches, sitting 11th after a 0-2 home defeat to Sturm Graz and a 0-1 loss at Salzburg. Austria Vienna are also winless in the league, having suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat away at Wolfsberger, but have shown attacking intent in European qualifiers, netting 12 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Both sides are under early pressure to register their first league points, but Austria Vienna's recent scoring form in cup and Europe sets them apart.
Statistically, the contrast is stark: Hartberg's Bundesliga attack is yet to fire (0 goals, 0.6 shots on target per game in the last five), while Austria Vienna's last five matches average 2.4 goals scored, 8.6 shots, and 3.8 on target. Hartberg's defensive record is also concerning, with a 0% clean sheet rate in the league and 1.5 goals conceded per game. Austria Vienna's defence is not watertight (1.0 conceded per last five, 3.0 in their only league match), but their shot volume and conversion rate should give them the edge, especially given Hartberg's lack of attacking threat. Both teams have shown a tendency to start slowly, with only four first-half goals for Hartberg in their last five matches.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects Austria Vienna to control the shot count and create higher-quality chances, with Hartberg likely to struggle for clear opportunities. The most probable outcome is a narrow away win, with a moderate chance of both teams scoring if Hartberg can capitalise on any defensive lapses. The goal environment is likely to be moderate, with over 2.5 goals slightly favoured but not strongly so.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna that most previews miss.
- 1Austria Vienna's last five matches average 2.4 goals scored and 8.6 shots per game, compared to Hartberg's 1.0 and 2.0 respectively.
- 2Only one of the last five H2H meetings has produced more than three goals, with four finishing under 2.5.
- 3Hartberg have failed to score in three of their last five matches across all competitions.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Austria Vienna Win@ 2.11
Austria Vienna's attack is averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five, while Hartberg have failed to score in both league matches this season and have a 0% clean sheet rate. The away win is the most probable outcome, but the bookmaker odds are roughly in line with the model, offering no positive edge.
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The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Prediction
Austria Vienna arrive with a sharper attack and a recent history of outscoring Hartberg both in direct meetings and in underlying shot metrics. Hartberg's goal production is non-existent in league play so far, and their defensive record shows little sign of compensating for that shortfall. The model expects Austria Vienna to create more chances and edge the contest, with a moderate probability of both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Austria Vienna average 2.4 goals scored and 8.6 shots per game across their last five competitive matches.
Match Context
- →Hartberg have failed to score in both Bundesliga matches this season (0 goals for, 3 against).
- →Austria Vienna have won six of the last ten head-to-head meetings, including three of the last four in Hartberg.
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for TSV Hartberg and 3.7 for Austria Vienna, for an expected total of 7.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 36% · Over 10.5: 15%.
How TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Austria Viennalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hartberg have opened the league campaign with two defeats and no goals, highlighting a blunt attack and defensive leaks. Austria Vienna's league form is also underwhelming after a 0-3 loss at Wolfsberger, but their recent cup and European outings show a much higher attacking ceiling, with four wins in their last five across all competitions.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna have won six of the last ten meetings with Hartberg, including three of the last four away matches. Most encounters have been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals in seven of the last ten, but Austria Vienna have consistently edged tight contests.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
TSV Hartberg wins
1
Draws
6
Austria Vienna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna
Bookmaker odds are broadly in line with the model for the main markets, with no significant positive edge on Austria Vienna or BTTS. The market appears to have priced in Austria Vienna's recent attacking form and Hartberg's struggles, leaving little in the way of clear value opportunities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams in the current league season reduces confidence in season averages.
- ⚠️Hartberg's last five averages are inflated by cup and friendly opposition, not league-standard defences.
- ⚠️Austria Vienna's defensive collapse at Wolfsberger (0-3) in their only league match is a potential outlier but cannot be ignored.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 1–2 Austria ViennaThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Austria Vienna, driven primarily by their superior attacking output (2.4 goals per game in the last five) and Hartberg's lack of scoring threat in league play. The greatest uncertainty lies in Austria Vienna's defensive consistency, as their 3-0 defeat at Wolfsberger exposes some vulnerability if Hartberg can raise their attacking level.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
The model gives Austria Vienna a 46% chance of victory, compared to 25% for Hartberg and 29% for the draw. Austria Vienna's recent attacking stats and head-to-head record make them slight favourites.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with Hartberg's poor league scoring record offset by Austria Vienna's defensive inconsistency and higher-scoring recent matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 54% probability by the model, based on Austria Vienna's high-scoring recent fixtures and Hartberg's defensive frailty, though head-to-head history leans under.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.