TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Full Time
3 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Lask Linz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.25(+2% edge)
Match Result
8.5/10Six-Goal Thriller as Hartberg and LASK Linz Share the Spoils in Profertil Arena Classic
TSV Hartberg and LASK Linz delivered a Bundesliga spectacle at the Profertil Arena, playing out a pulsating 3-3 draw that kept fans on the edge of their seats from start to finish. LASK Linz looked to be in control after racing into a 2-0 lead inside the opening half hour, but Hartberg showed remarkable resilience to claw their way back, with both sides exchanging blows in a frenetic second half. LASK Linz dominated possession with 60% and fired 16 shots (six on target), but Hartberg’s efficiency and fighting spirit, especially after the break, saw them overturn a two-goal deficit and even take the lead briefly. Ultimately, neither side could find a decisive winner, as late drama and defensive lapses defined a match that showcased the attacking intent and vulnerabilities of both teams.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
M. Usor opens the scoring for LASK Linz, finishing off a swift attacking move.
30' — Goal
C. Lang doubles LASK’s lead, capitalizing on Hartberg’s defensive uncertainty.
46' — Goal
A. Gattermayer pulls one back for Hartberg immediately after halftime, igniting the comeback.
58' — Goal
LASK restore their two-goal cushion with a well-taken strike.
72' — Goal
Hartberg reduce the deficit again, setting up a tense finale.
77' — Goal
M. Hoffman completes Hartberg’s turnaround with a goal to make it 3-3.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Hartberg collect four yellow cards as tempers flare in a high-stakes encounter.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg started slowly and were punished by LASK’s early intensity, conceding twice in the first 30 minutes. However, the hosts regrouped at halftime and came out with renewed purpose, scoring just after the restart and then twice more in the space of five second-half minutes to briefly take the lead. Despite only 40% possession and limited attacking opportunities (10 shots, three on target), Hartberg’s clinical finishing and spirited pressing in the second half nearly earned them all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Lask Linz
LASK Linz were the more dominant side for large stretches, controlling the ball (60% possession), creating more chances (16 shots, six on target), and looking dangerous from wide areas and set pieces (nine corners). Their early goals suggested a comfortable afternoon, but defensive complacency and lapses in concentration allowed Hartberg back into the contest. Despite falling behind in the second half, LASK rallied to equalize and pressed hard for a winner, but ultimately had to settle for a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hartberg’s 5-3-2 formation was designed for solidity, but early on they struggled with LASK’s fluid 3-4-1-2, which overloaded the midfield and stretched the hosts’ back line. LASK’s wingbacks, especially F. Flecker and G. Bello, provided width and supported attacks, allowing the visitors to dominate possession and create chances from wide and set-piece situations. After halftime, Hartberg pressed higher and committed more bodies forward, using the energy of Kainz and Markuš in midfield to disrupt LASK’s rhythm. The hosts’ direct approach paid dividends, with quick transitions and set pieces causing problems for LASK’s defense. Both managers used substitutions to adjust shape and inject fresh legs, but neither side could fully wrest control in a chaotic, open second half.
Turning Point
A. Gattermayer’s goal just after halftime shifted momentum, inspiring Hartberg’s comeback and turning the match into a wild end-to-end contest.
Man of the Match
A. Gattermayer
His early second-half goal sparked Hartberg’s revival and he was central to their attacking threat throughout the comeback.
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz: Match Preview
Hartberg arrive off the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions, including a 4-0 cup rout and back-to-back league victories. However, their Bundesliga home form is less convincing: just one win from three, and six goals conceded. LASK Linz, meanwhile, are top of the table with a perfect record, 15 points from 5 matches, and have conceded only two league goals all season. The gap in league position and momentum is stark, but Hartberg's recent uptick adds a note of caution.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by LASK's attacking firepower and Hartberg's defensive frailty at home. LASK average 3.0 goals per league game and have scored five in two away matches, while Hartberg's home defence has allowed two goals per game. First-half goals are likely: both teams have scored more in the opening 45 minutes than after the break in their last five. Set-piece threat tilts toward LASK, who average nearly five corners per game, but neither side is especially ill-disciplined, with both averaging under two cards per match.
The model expects LASK to control the game, but not to run away with it. Hartberg's recent form and the tendency for draws in this fixture suggest the market's price on LASK is a touch too short. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the best value is found in secondary markets, particularly BTTS 'no', reflecting LASK's defensive solidity and Hartberg's inconsistent home attack.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
The model finds little genuine value in the main 1x2 or over/under markets, with bookmaker prices closely tracking the data. The best edge appears in the BTTS 'no' market, where Hartberg's patchy home attack and LASK's defensive record combine for a small but real value over the odds. No major mispricing is present, so restraint is justified.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.27
Despite both teams showing attacking intent recently, Hartberg have failed to score in two of their last five league matches and LASK Linz have conceded just one goal in two away league games this season. The model's probability for BTTS 'no' (46%) edges the implied probability (44%) at these odds.
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TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz that most previews miss.
- 1Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended in draws, despite LASK's overall dominance.
- 2Hartberg have failed to score in two of their last three Bundesliga home matches.
- 3LASK Linz have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their league games this season, conceding just one away goal.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 2.25
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
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The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Prediction
The market has LASK Linz as a short-priced favourite at 1.48, reflecting their perfect league start and dominance in this fixture, but the model finds the price slightly too short given Hartberg's recent upturn and the frequency of draws in head-to-head meetings. Hartberg come in buoyed by three consecutive wins in all competitions, but their home league form remains patchy, while LASK's away numbers are robust but not overwhelming. The value, such as it is, lies in markets where the public may be overestimating both sides' attacking output.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →LASK Linz average 2.5 goals per game in their last four domestic outings, but have failed to score in two of their last five across all competitions.
Defence
- →Hartberg have scored just three goals in three home league matches this season, conceding six.
Match Context
- →LASK Linz have won five of the last ten head-to-heads, with Hartberg yet to record a victory in that span.
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for TSV Hartberg and 6.7 for Lask Linz, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lask Linzlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hartberg have found momentum with three consecutive wins in all competitions, but their league home form remains shaky, with two losses from three and six goals conceded. LASK Linz, in contrast, are in imperious form, winning all five league matches and conceding just twice, including back-to-back away victories.
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
LASK Linz have dominated recent meetings, winning five of the last ten and drawing the rest; Hartberg have not beaten LASK in this period. The last encounter at Hartberg ended 5-1 to LASK, and draws have been a repeated outcome, especially in lower-scoring games.
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
TSV Hartberg wins
6
Draws
4
Lask Linz wins
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
- ⚠️Hartberg's recent form spike (three straight wins) may not be fully reflected in season-long numbers.
- ⚠️LASK Linz's European fixtures introduce rotation and fatigue variables difficult to quantify.
- ⚠️Market prices are efficient; no large value edge is present in major markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 1–2 Lask LinzLASK Linz are deserved favourites based on their perfect league record, but the model is less bullish than the market, projecting a 2-1 away win. The most compelling data point is Hartberg's poor home defensive record (six conceded in three), but if Hartberg's recent winning run proves sustainable, the draw becomes a plausible risk to the away win.
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs LASK Linz?
LASK Linz are clear favourites, with the model giving them a 65% chance of victory compared to just 13% for Hartberg. However, the draw is not out of the question, occurring in half of the last ten head-to-heads.
Will both teams score in Hartberg vs LASK Linz?
The model rates BTTS 'yes' at 54% and 'no' at 46%. Hartberg have failed to score in two of their last five, and LASK have conceded only one goal in two away league games, so 'no' offers slight value at current odds.
Is LASK Linz value at 1.48 to win?
At odds of 1.48, the implied probability is 68%, but the model makes LASK a 65% chance, suggesting the price is a little short. While LASK are strong favourites, the edge is with alternative markets rather than backing them outright.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.