TSV Hartberg vs Ried Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Ried
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.2/10Hartberg Edge Ried in Five-Goal Thriller at Profertil Arena
TSV Hartberg claimed a pulsating 3-2 victory over Ried in an end-to-end Bundesliga encounter at the Profertil Arena. The hosts struck first and led twice, but were pegged back by a resilient Ried side before ultimately sealing the win midway through the second half. Both teams showcased attacking intent, combining for 31 shots and five goals, but it was Hartberg's clinical edge and defensive resilience in the closing stages that proved decisive. Hartberg opened the scoring early, but Ried responded swiftly to level matters. The first half saw momentum swing back and forth, with Hartberg regaining the lead before the break. Ried's superior possession (59%) paid off with a second equalizer, yet Hartberg found a third goal against the run of play. Despite Ried's late pressure and greater control of the ball, Hartberg held firm to secure all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Marco Hoffmann opens the scoring for Hartberg, capitalizing on early pressure.
11' — Goal
Ante Bajić equalizes for Ried, finishing off a flowing move.
38' — Goal
Oliver Lukić restores Hartberg's lead with a composed finish.
64' — Goal
Ried draw level again, showing their attacking intent.
71' — Goal
Hartberg score what proves to be the winner, punishing Ried's defensive lapse.
45' — Yellow Card
Paul Komposch (Hartberg) booked for a tactical foul.
53' — Yellow Card
Oliver Steurer (Ried) shown a yellow for dissent.
78' — Yellow Card
Yusuf Maart (Ried) cautioned for a late challenge as Ried chase the game.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg made the most of their opportunities, converting three of their 14 shots (five on target) and showing sharpness in transition. Deploying a 5-3-2 formation, they were compact defensively and dangerous on the break, especially in the first half. While they had less of the ball (41% possession), their direct approach and set-piece threat unsettled Ried. The back line, marshaled by Fabian Wilfinger and Paul Komposch, absorbed pressure well in the closing stages to preserve the lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ried
Ried dominated possession (59%) and outshot their hosts (17 total shots, five on target), but struggled to convert dominance into goals at key moments. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid movement in midfield, with Stefan Schwab dictating play and Ante Bajić and Jussef Nasrawe providing attacking impetus. Defensive lapses, however, cost them dearly, as they conceded three times despite controlling large stretches of the match. Late pressure failed to yield an equalizer.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hartberg's 5-3-2 formation provided defensive solidity, allowing them to absorb Ried's pressure and spring forward quickly in transition. The wing-backs contributed both defensively and offensively, supporting the front two and helping overload wide areas. Hartberg's compactness frustrated Ried, who, despite their 4-2-3-1 setup and dominance of the ball, often found it difficult to penetrate centrally and were forced to shoot from distance. Ried's approach relied on patient buildup and midfield rotations, with Schwab and Maart orchestrating play. However, their high line left them exposed to Hartberg's direct counters, particularly after turnovers. Set pieces were relatively even, but Hartberg made better use of theirs, while Ried's late tactical switches—pushing more men forward—could not break down Hartberg's disciplined block.
Turning Point
Hartberg's third goal in the 71st minute, scored against the run of play, shifted momentum and ultimately secured the victory.
Man of the Match
Marco Hoffmann
Scored the opening goal and consistently troubled Ried's defense with his movement and finishing.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried: Match Preview
Hartberg return to the Stadion Hartberg after breaking a three-game league losing streak with a 2-1 win at Altach, but their home form remains a concern: two matches, zero goals, and four conceded. Ried sit three places higher in the table but have only one win from four, and their away record is similarly unconvincing, shipping five goals in two league trips. Both teams are in the bottom half, with early-season urgency to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle.
On the numbers, this fixture matches two of the league’s least productive attacks. Hartberg average just 0.5 goals per game in the league and have failed to score in three of four, while Ried’s 1.0 goals per game is padded by a single multi-goal Cup outing. Defensively, Hartberg’s 1.5 conceded per match is only marginally better than Ried’s 1.75, but Ried have at least managed one clean sheet. Shot volumes are modest (Hartberg 6.6, Ried 12.8 per match in the last five), and both teams average under 4 shots on target per game. Corners and cards are around league average, offering no clear set-piece or discipline edge.
Given the low attacking output and recent H2H trends (four straight Hartberg home wins over Ried, all under 2.5 goals), the model expects a tight, low-scoring contest. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with neither side able to sustain attacking pressure. Margins are fine, but the underlying rates point to 1-1 as the modal scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Ried that most previews miss.
- 1Hartberg have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 league matches and both home games this season.
- 2Ried’s last 5 matches have seen both teams score in 4 of them, but only once have they scored more than a single goal in the league.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished with under 2.5 goals, including the last four in Hartberg.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Ried(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game in the league, with Hartberg failing to score in three of four but Ried conceding 1.75 per match. The draw is the modal outcome given the attack/defence rates and the high incidence of low-scoring H2Hs.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Hartberg have seen under 2.5 goals in 75% of league matches so far, and Ried’s away games average just 3.5 goals with one match finishing 1-1. Both sides’ shot-on-target averages are modest, supporting a low-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Ried Prediction
A statistical deadlock is likely between two sides struggling for attacking fluency but showing defensive vulnerabilities. Hartberg’s home record is winless and goalless, but Ried’s away defence has been breached five times in two league trips. The underlying rates point to a low-scoring contest with neither side demonstrating the firepower to take control.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average fewer than 1.5 goals scored per league game.
Defence
- →Ried have conceded five goals in two away league matches.
Match Context
- →Hartberg have failed to score in both home league games this season.
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Ried Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for TSV Hartberg and 4.8 for Ried, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How TSV Hartberg and Ried Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Riedlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hartberg snapped a three-match league losing run with a narrow away win at Altach, but their home form is a major concern: two games, zero goals, and four conceded. Ried have shown slightly better momentum, earning a win and a draw in their last two, but their only away point came in a 1-1 draw at Austria Lustenau, and they were heavily beaten at Lask Linz. Both sides are underperforming in attack and remain in the bottom half of the table.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried — Last 4 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Ried
Hartberg have dominated this fixture at home, winning each of the last three meetings by two-goal margins and six of the last ten overall. However, the recent trend is towards low-scoring matches, with the last four in Hartberg finishing under 2.5 goals and Ried failing to score in three. The draw has also appeared twice in the last eight encounters.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
TSV Hartberg wins
2
Draws
2
Ried wins
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Ried
- ⚠️Early season data means small sample sizes; underlying team strength may not be fully reflected.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Cup results and lineups may not be indicative of league performance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 1–1 RiedThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by Hartberg’s inability to score at home and Ried’s porous away defence—both teams average fewer than 1.5 goals scored per league game. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side capitalises on set-piece opportunities or defensive lapses, but the overall shot and conversion rates suggest a low ceiling for goals.
TSV Hartberg vs Ried: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
The model gives Hartberg a 34% chance, the draw 36%, and Ried 30%. Both teams have struggled for attacking output, so the draw is the most likely outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Hartberg vs Ried?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 57% probability. Hartberg have seen under 2.5 in 75% of league matches, and Ried’s away games have averaged just 3.5 goals with only one match going over.
Are both teams likely to score in Hartberg vs Ried?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with Ried scoring in every league match but Hartberg failing to score in three of four. The probability is close to even due to Ried’s defensive issues away from home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Ried: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.