TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Sturm Graz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Match Result
6.8/10Sturm Graz Power Past 10-Man Hartberg with Second-Half Surge
Sturm Graz kicked off their Bundesliga campaign with a commanding 2-0 victory away at TSV Hartberg, capitalizing on a dominant second-half display at the Profertil Arena. After a cagey opening period, the visitors asserted control, outshooting Hartberg 20 to 6 and enjoying a slight edge in possession. The turning point arrived when Hartberg were reduced to ten men, allowing Sturm Graz to break the deadlock in the 69th minute and seal the result with a second goal twelve minutes later. Despite Hartberg's disciplined defensive setup in a 5-3-2, they struggled to contain Sturm Graz's attacking waves, especially after going a man down. Sturm's patience and quality in the final third eventually paid dividends, with their midfield dictating play and their forwards finding the crucial breakthroughs to secure all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
45' — Red Card
Hartberg reduced to ten men after a straight red, shifting momentum towards Sturm Graz.
69' — Goal
Sturm Graz finally break through Hartberg's resistance to take a 1-0 lead.
81' — Goal
Sturm Graz double their advantage, effectively sealing the result.
TSV Hartberg
Hartberg set up defensively in a 5-3-2 formation, aiming to frustrate Sturm Graz and hit on the break. For much of the first half, their compactness and work rate kept the visitors at bay, though they offered little threat themselves, managing just two shots on target from six attempts. The second half saw their resistance wear down, and a red card left them vulnerable. Ultimately, they were unable to cope with Sturm's sustained pressure and conceded twice in the final 20 minutes.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz dominated proceedings with a fluid 4-2-3-1 setup, dictating tempo and creating a wealth of chances. They registered 20 shots, five of which tested the Hartberg keeper, and forced nine corners through relentless attacking play. Their patience was rewarded after Hartberg went down to ten men, as they found the breakthrough in the 69th minute and doubled their lead late on to secure a deserved win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hartberg's 5-3-2 formation prioritized defensive solidity, with wing-backs dropping deep and a compact midfield shield. This approach frustrated Sturm Graz early, but left Hartberg isolated up front and unable to retain possession. Sturm's 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate the ball (54% possession), stretch the play with wide midfielders, and overload central areas. The away side's patience in recycling possession and their use of set pieces (nine corners) eventually wore down the depleted Hartberg side. After the red card, Sturm pushed their full-backs higher and committed more numbers forward, leading to the decisive goals.
Turning Point
The red card to Hartberg just before halftime, which left them a man down and opened the door for Sturm Graz's second-half dominance.
Man of the Match
Jon Gorenc Stanković
Ran the midfield, dictated tempo, and was central to Sturm Graz's control and eventual breakthrough.
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz: Match Preview
Sturm Graz arrive in Hartberg riding a wave of momentum, having strung together five consecutive victories across all competitions, including a pair of Champions League triumphs over Hearts and a 3-0 cup win at Seekirchen. Their attack has been prolific, averaging three goals per game in this stretch, and the defence has been nearly impenetrable, conceding just once. Hartberg, meanwhile, have enjoyed a productive pre-season with four wins in their last five, but their only defeat came at home to Voitsberg, highlighting a vulnerability when stepping up in class. Both sides are looking to set the tone for the new Bundesliga campaign, but Sturm Graz’s recent run has come against stronger opposition.
Tactically, Sturm Graz’s second-half strength stands out: they’ve scored 10 of their last 15 goals after the break, suggesting a side that grows into games and punishes tiring opponents. Hartberg have also started matches brightly, netting seven first-half goals in their last five, but have been less clinical after half-time. The visitors’ defensive discipline is further underlined by four clean sheets in their last five, while Hartberg have managed three. Set-piece data is limited, but Sturm Graz’s low corners (1.2 per game) and fouls (6.6 per game) suggest a direct, efficient approach rather than one reliant on dead-ball situations.
Given Sturm Graz’s dominance in recent head-to-heads—seven wins in the last ten, including a 4-2 away victory in May—the model expects them to assert control, especially as the match wears on. Hartberg’s pre-season momentum is real but largely untested at this level, and unless they can find an early breakthrough, the visitors’ blend of defensive solidity and clinical finishing should see them take all three points.
How TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Graz are in blistering form, having won all five of their most recent matches and conceding just once, including a statement 2-0 win away at Hearts in the Champions League. Hartberg have also enjoyed a positive pre-season, winning four of five, but their only defeat—a 0-2 home loss to Voitsberg—raises questions about their readiness for top-flight opposition.
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz that most previews miss.
- 1Sturm Graz have scored 10 of their last 15 goals in the second half, highlighting a late-game surge.
- 2Hartberg and Sturm Graz have each seen both teams score in just one of their last five matches.
- 3Sturm Graz have won seven of the last ten head-to-heads, including three straight away victories at Hartberg.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 2.15
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
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The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction
Momentum is the defining feature as Sturm Graz, fresh from five straight wins and a Champions League shutout away at Hearts, travel to a Hartberg side who have also found rhythm in pre-season but face a significant step up in class. The visitors’ defensive solidity and clinical edge in the second half have been hallmarks of their summer, while Hartberg’s recent run has come against lesser opposition and includes a home defeat to Voitsberg. With Sturm Graz’s dominance in this fixture and their current form, the model expects them to control proceedings, especially after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sturm Graz have won five consecutive matches, conceding just once in that run.
- →Hartberg have kept three clean sheets in their last five but lost at home to Voitsberg.
Match Context
- →Sturm Graz have won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings, including a 4-2 away win in May.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Sturm Graz arrive on a five-match winning streak, outscoring opponents 15-1 in that span, and have won seven of the last ten meetings with Hartberg.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have averaged over two goals scored per game across their last five, and four of the last five H2H at Hartberg have seen at least three goals.
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BTTS: No
Sturm Graz have kept four clean sheets in their last five, and Hartberg have failed to score in one of their last five, with just one BTTS result each in that span.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for TSV Hartberg and 4.2 for Sturm Graz, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz have dominated this fixture, winning seven and drawing three of the last ten meetings, with Hartberg yet to claim a victory. The last encounter at Hartberg ended 4-2 to Sturm Graz, and the away side have taken maximum points on each of their last three visits.
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
TSV Hartberg wins
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz wins
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
- ⚠️Both teams’ recent form is based on pre-season and early cup matches, so competitive league sharpness is untested.
- ⚠️No current league table or home/away splits available for the new season.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so value assessment is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 1–2 Sturm GrazThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Sturm Graz, driven by their five-match winning streak and a remarkable 0.2 goals conceded per game over that run. The biggest risk to this call is Hartberg’s habit of fast starts—if they convert early, they could disrupt Sturm Graz’s second-half dominance.
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz are strong favourites with a 63% probability of victory, reflecting their five-match winning run and dominance in recent head-to-heads. Hartberg’s chance is rated at just 14%, with a 23% probability for a draw.
Will Sturm Graz’s winning streak continue against Hartberg?
The model gives Sturm Graz a high probability (63%) to extend their winning streak, supported by their 15 goals scored and just one conceded in their last five matches, plus seven wins in the last ten meetings with Hartberg.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with 'no' at 56%. Each side has seen only one BTTS result in their last five, and Sturm Graz have kept four clean sheets in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.