Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
Union Berlin
Full Time
4 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
FC Augsburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.4(+34% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Union Berlin Thrash Augsburg 4-0 in Dominant Home Finale
Union Berlin delivered a commanding performance at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, dismantling FC Augsburg 4-0 in their final Bundesliga fixture of the season. The hosts set the tone early, with Andrej Ilić opening the scoring in the 10th minute. Union's relentless attacking play continued throughout, with further goals in the 42nd, 54th, and 89th minutes, underlining their superiority. Despite Augsburg edging possession with 51%, they struggled to make any real impact in the final third, managing just a single shot on target from 11 attempts. In contrast, Union Berlin were clinical, firing 9 of their 17 shots on target and converting four, while maintaining defensive discipline to keep a clean sheet. The result capped a memorable afternoon for the home fans and a disappointing end to the campaign for Augsburg.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
4 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
10' — Goal
Andrej Ilić opens the scoring for Union Berlin, giving the hosts an early advantage.
42' — Goal
Union double their lead just before halftime, putting Augsburg on the back foot.
54' — Goal
A third goal after the break effectively seals the result for Union Berlin.
89' — Goal
Union cap off their dominant display with a fourth goal in the dying minutes.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin were ruthless in attack and disciplined at the back, making the most of their chances and suffocating Augsburg’s attempts to respond. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions, with the midfield providing both defensive cover and creative impetus. The hosts pressed high, forced errors, and were rewarded with a comprehensive victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
FC Augsburg
Augsburg had more possession but were largely toothless in attack, registering just one shot on target from 11 attempts. Their 3-4-2-1 setup failed to generate meaningful opportunities, and they struggled to deal with Union’s pressing and movement. Defensive frailties were exposed repeatedly, particularly in wide areas and transitions.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Union Berlin’s 4-2-3-1 provided balance and width, with the full-backs supporting attacks and the double pivot shielding the defense. Their pressing forced Augsburg into mistakes, and quick transitions exploited spaces behind the visitors’ wing-backs. Augsburg’s 3-4-2-1 struggled to cope defensively, particularly when Union overloaded the flanks and attacked with pace. Union’s midfield trio dictated tempo, while Augsburg’s attempts to build through the middle were repeatedly stifled. Set pieces offered Augsburg some hope, as evidenced by their 9 corners, but Union’s defensive organization nullified these threats. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical landscape, with Union maintaining control throughout.
Turning Point
Union Berlin’s second goal in the 42nd minute gave them a commanding lead and killed Augsburg’s momentum heading into halftime.
Man of the Match
Andrej Ilić
His early goal set the tone, and he led the line with intelligence and clinical finishing throughout.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3.4
Both teams have seen BTTS in all of their last 5 matches, and both have defensive vulnerabilities with clean sheet rates below 20%. The model probability is much higher than the implied odds.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.9
The model gives a higher chance for a draw than the market, and recent H2H meetings have produced 3 draws in the last 6 Bundesliga encounters.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction
This is a mid-table clash with FC Augsburg carrying stronger recent form and attacking output, while Union Berlin look to build on a morale-boosting away win after a difficult run. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring, open games lately, and their defensive records suggest goals at both ends are likely. With neither side especially solid at the back and BTTS hitting in every one of their last five games, expect another competitive, goal-rich encounter.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Augsburg have 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5, scoring 2.2 goals per game.
Defence
- →Union Berlin have just 1 win in 5 and concede 2.2 goals per game in that span.
Injuries & Team News
- →Union Berlin are missing several regulars due to injury and suspension, including both first-choice goalkeepers.
Match Context
- →Augsburg's away record is slightly better than Union's home record.
- →Recent H2H matches have been close, with draws and away wins common.
🚩 Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Union Berlin and 5.2 for FC Augsburg, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Union Berlin and FC Augsburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Union Berlinlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Union Berlin ended a four-match winless streak with an impressive 3-1 away win at Mainz, but overall their recent form is poor, with just one win in five and a leaky defence (11 goals conceded in that span). Augsburg are unbeaten in five, picking up three wins and two draws, and have scored at least two goals in four of their last five, showing strong attacking momentum.
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
Head-to-head history is even, with a slight edge to Augsburg in away games. The last meeting ended 1-1, and three of the last six Bundesliga matches between these sides have been draws. BTTS is a common theme, and neither team has dominated the fixture.
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Union Berlin wins
3
Draws
3
FC Augsburg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
The standout value is on 'Both Teams to Score – Yes', where the model sees a much higher probability than the market implies. The draw is also slightly undervalued by the bookmakers, with model probability exceeding the odds-implied chance. The home and away win odds are closely matched, but the model sees a clearer edge for Augsburg based on form and absences.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
- ⚠️Some recent match stats for Augsburg are missing (shots, possession, etc.), increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Union Berlin's injury list is long and includes key defensive players, which may further weaken their back line.
- ⚠️Final matchday motivation and rotations are unknown and could affect lineups.
- ⚠️Corners data is sparse for Augsburg, so corner estimates are less reliable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.