Venezia vs Udinese Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Venezia
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Udinese
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Udinese Win
Match Result
7.6/10Venezia Edge Udinese in Spirited 2-1 Triumph at the Penzo
Venezia claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Udinese at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, capitalizing on a strong second-half performance to secure all three points. After a cagey first half, the match burst into life after the break, with Venezia striking first in the 53rd minute. Udinese responded swiftly, leveling just four minutes later, but the hosts regained their lead in the 65th minute and held firm under late pressure. Both sides produced an engaging contest, with Udinese edging possession (54%) and registering more corners (7 to Venezia's 3), but the home side were more clinical when it mattered. Despite Udinese's five shots on target to Venezia's four, the hosts' defensive discipline and timely finishing proved decisive in a match defined by momentum swings and tactical adjustments.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
53' — Goal
A. Adams opens the scoring for Venezia, finishing off a swift attacking move.
57' — Goal
N. Zaniolo equalizes for Udinese, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
65' — Goal
Venezia restore their lead with a well-worked team goal.
74' — Yellow Card
Venezia's S. Sohm booked for a tactical foul to break up play.
80' — Substitution
Udinese bring on attacking reinforcements in search of an equalizer.
Venezia
Venezia delivered a disciplined and energetic display, particularly in the second half where their attacking intent paid dividends. Lining up in a 3-5-2, they created 15 shots (four on target) and capitalized on key moments to take the lead twice. The midfield, anchored by Kike Pérez and T. Bašić, provided both defensive cover and attacking thrust, while the back three remained organized against Udinese's advances. The hosts showed resilience after conceding the equalizer, quickly regaining composure and restoring their advantage. Their ability to absorb pressure and transition effectively was central to their success, as was their willingness to commit numbers forward when opportunities arose.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Udinese
Udinese started brightly and controlled possession for much of the match, but ultimately fell short in both penalty areas. Their 3-4-2-1 setup allowed them to dominate the ball (54% possession) and create 13 shots (five on target), but they lacked the cutting edge to convert pressure into goals. The midfield duo of J. Piotrowski and J. Karlström dictated tempo, while N. Zaniolo offered creative spark. Despite a spirited response to Venezia's opener and an equalizer soon after, Udinese were undone by defensive lapses and could not find a way past Stanković in the closing stages. Their attacking substitutions failed to break down a resolute Venezia defense, leaving them frustrated at full time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Venezia's 3-5-2 formation provided defensive solidity while allowing wing-backs to push forward, stretching Udinese's midfield. The hosts focused on quick transitions, often bypassing Udinese's pressing with direct balls to the front two, Adams and Yeboah. Their compact shape frustrated Udinese, especially after taking the lead. Udinese's 3-4-2-1 emphasized possession and width, with Vojvoda and Kamara tasked with providing attacking outlets. However, despite their territorial advantage and set-piece opportunities, they were vulnerable to Venezia's counters and struggled to break down the well-drilled back three. Late substitutions aimed to inject more attacking impetus, but Venezia's defensive adjustments held firm.
Turning Point
Venezia's second goal in the 65th minute, coming just eight minutes after Udinese's equalizer, shifted momentum decisively and proved to be the match-winner.
Man of the Match
A. Adams
Scored the opening goal and led the line with energy, providing the attacking spark that propelled Venezia to victory.
Venezia vs Udinese: Match Preview
Venezia come into this fixture bottom of Serie A, having lost eight of their first nine games and scoring just once in their last three. Their only win this season came against Napoli, but their overall form string of 'LLWLL' and a -13 goal difference highlight a side struggling at both ends. Udinese, though only marginally better off in 17th, have at least picked up a win and two draws, and their away form (1W, 1D, 2L) is notably stronger than their home record.
Statistically, this is a clash of two of the league's weakest defences: Venezia concede 2.11 goals per game, Udinese 2.00. Udinese's away matches average 4.0 total goals (7 scored, 9 conceded in 4 games), while Venezia's home games are lower-scoring but similarly one-sided (0.6 for, 2.0 against per game). Both sides have failed to score in three of their last five, but Udinese's shot volume (12.2 per game, 2.6 on target) and Venezia's even higher attempt rate (15.2, 4.6 on target) suggest chances at both ends. Set-piece metrics are middling, with no clear edge, and discipline is moderate (Venezia 2 yellows per game, Udinese 1).
The model favours Udinese's greater attacking output on the road and their dominance in recent head-to-heads, projecting a 2-1 away win. The most likely scenario is a scrappy first half, with Udinese's superior finishing making the difference after the break. However, both teams' inconsistency in front of goal and a lack of clean sheets mean volatility is high, and a low-scoring draw remains plausible if early chances are missed.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Venezia vs Udinese Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Venezia vs Udinese that most previews miss.
- 1Udinese's away games average 4.0 total goals (7 scored, 9 conceded in 4 matches), the highest among Serie A's bottom half.
- 2Venezia have failed to score in three of their last five but average 15.2 shots per game in that stretch, suggesting underperformance.
- 3Four of the last five Venezia-Udinese meetings have produced at least three goals, with Udinese winning four times.
Who do you think wins: Venezia vs Udinese?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Venezia vs Udinese(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Udinese Win
Udinese have a higher away goal rate (1.75 per away game) compared to Venezia's home scoring (0.6 per home game), and have won four of the last five head-to-heads.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have defensive records among the league's worst (Venezia 2.11 conceded per game, Udinese 2.00), and Udinese's away matches average 4.0 goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Venezia have failed to score in three of their last five, but Udinese have kept just one clean sheet in nine league matches; both to score is narrowly favoured by the rates.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Venezia vs Udinese Prediction
This is a meeting of two of Serie A's lowest-scoring, most porous sides, with Udinese's away attack offering a slight edge against a Venezia side that have lost eight of nine and average just 0.67 goals per game. The statistical shape points to a relatively open contest, with both teams' defensive weaknesses likely to outweigh their attacking limitations. Udinese's superior away scoring rate and dominance in recent head-to-heads tip the balance in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Venezia have lost 8 of 9 league matches, scoring only 6 goals and conceding 19.
- →Udinese average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per away game.
Match Context
- →Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have produced at least three goals.
🚩 Venezia vs Udinese Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.5 corners for Venezia and 5.6 for Udinese, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Venezia and Udinese Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Venezia vs Udinese Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Venezialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Udineselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Venezia have lost four of their last five, their only win a narrow 1-0 over Napoli, and have failed to score in three of those matches. Udinese are also winless in their last five league games (DLLLD), but have managed two draws, including a goalless result away at Parma. Both sides are struggling for momentum, but Udinese's away output is notably better than Venezia's home form.
Venezia vs Udinese — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Venezia vs Udinese
Udinese have dominated this fixture, winning four of the last five meetings and scoring at least twice in each of those victories. The last four encounters have all produced three or more goals, with only one clean sheet kept between the sides in that run.
Venezia vs Udinese Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Venezia wins
0
Draws
4
Udinese wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Venezia vs Udinese
With odds unavailable, no value edges can be confirmed. However, the model's probability for Udinese (46%) would require odds above 2.17 for value, and over 2.5 goals (53%) would need odds above 1.89. Both markets are likely to be close to fair price given the teams' defensive records.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Venezia vs Udinese
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent attacking output, with each failing to score in three of the last five.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed and injury impact is minimal but not zero.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Venezia 1–2 UdineseThe model projects a 2-1 win for Udinese, with the single strongest factor being Udinese's away scoring rate (1.75 per game) against Venezia's league-worst defensive record. The main risk is both sides' recent struggles to convert chances, which could drag the match towards a low-scoring draw if finishing remains poor.
Venezia vs Udinese: Common Questions
Who will win Venezia vs Udinese?
Udinese are favoured with a 46% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Venezia and 32% for the draw, based on their superior away scoring and dominance in recent head-to-heads.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Venezia vs Udinese?
The model gives a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Udinese's away games averaging 4.0 goals and both teams' defensive frailties.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with Venezia's recent shot volume and Udinese's poor clean sheet record making it a marginally likely outcome.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Venezia vs Udinese: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.