Viborg vs AC Horsens Predictions
Superliga · Denmark
Viborg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
AC Horsens
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: AC Horsens Win
@ 6.5(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: Viborg vs AC Horsens
Viborg vs AC Horsens: Match Preview
Viborg enter this fixture sitting third in the Superliga, six places and seven points above Horsens, but their recent form is patchy: two wins and three defeats in the last five across all competitions, including a 1-2 home loss to Midtjylland last time out. Horsens, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last four league games (three draws, one win) and have developed a reputation for resilience, drawing three consecutive league matches and scoring late equalisers.
Statistically, Viborg's attack has been reliable at home, averaging two goals per league match at the Energi Viborg Arena, but their defence has shown cracks, conceding in four of their last five. Horsens' away record is mixed (2W, 1D, 2L), but they've scored 11 goals in five away games and their matches see the highest over 2.5 rate in the league (64%). Both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Viborg's matches have produced early goals, with five first-half strikes in their last five outings.
Despite the market's strong lean towards Viborg, the data suggests Horsens can make this competitive. Viborg's historical dominance and home scoring edge are balanced by their defensive vulnerabilities and Horsens' ability to find the net on the road. The model expects a narrow Viborg win, but the draw offers fair value given both sides' recent trends and the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Viborg vs AC Horsens
The market's price on Viborg is notably short relative to the model's 61% win probability, with the 1.42 odds implying a 70% chance—an overstatement of their edge. The draw is priced fairly at 4.33, matching the model's 23% probability, while Horsens' win odds (6.5) slightly exceed their true chance but not enough to justify a value play. With no over/under or BTTS odds available, the 1x2 draw is the only selection close to fair value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Viborg vs AC Horsens(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.33
The model assigns a 23% probability to the draw, exactly matching the implied probability of the 4.33 odds, suggesting fair value. Viborg's home matches have not produced a single draw in six attempts this season, but Horsens have drawn four of their last six in the league, and both sides have seen four BTTS in their last five. With Viborg slightly overrated by the market, the draw is the only selection close to value.
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Viborg vs AC Horsens Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Viborg vs AC Horsens that most previews miss.
- 1Viborg have not drawn a single home match this season (4W, 2L), while Horsens have drawn four of their last six league games.
- 2Horsens' away matches are averaging 4.2 total goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 64% of their league fixtures.
- 3Eight of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Viborg, but four of the last five have seen both teams score.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Viborg vs AC Horsens Prediction
Bookmakers have installed Viborg as strong favourites at 1.42, but the underlying numbers point to a more competitive contest than the odds suggest. Viborg's home record (4W, 0D, 2L) is impressive, yet they've conceded in four of their last five and have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight league matches. Horsens, meanwhile, have drawn three league games on the bounce and have shown resilience on their travels with 11 goals scored in five away fixtures. Tactically, Viborg's attack averages 1.8 goals per game over the last five, but their defence has been breached 1.6 times per match in that span. Horsens' away defence is leaky (10 conceded in five), but they've also netted at least twice in three of their last five league outings. Both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Horsens' matches hit over 2.5 goals 64% of the time this season. Viborg's set-piece threat is moderate (2.8 corners per game), while Horsens' discipline could be a factor, averaging 1.2 yellows per game recently. The model expects Viborg to edge this, but not by the margin the market implies. Viborg's historical dominance in this fixture (eight wins in the last ten H2H) is counterbalanced by their current defensive frailties and Horsens' knack for scoring away. Expect a match with chances at both ends, with Viborg's home edge just enough to tilt the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams have scored in four of their last five matches, with Viborg averaging 1.8 goals and Horsens 2.0 goals per game in that span.
Match Context
- →Viborg have won eight of the last ten meetings with Horsens, including a 3-2 away win earlier this season.
- →Horsens have drawn four of their last six league matches, indicating a tendency to keep games competitive.
🚩 Viborg vs AC Horsens Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Viborg and 4.3 for AC Horsens, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Viborg and AC Horsens Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Viborg vs AC Horsens Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Viborglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AC Horsenslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Viborg's recent form is mixed, alternating wins and losses in their last five, with a notable 4-1 home win over Nordsjaelland but also a 1-2 defeat to Midtjylland. Horsens, in contrast, are unbeaten in four league matches, drawing three and winning one, and have shown a knack for scoring late goals to salvage points. Viborg remain more consistent at home, but Horsens' resilience is evident in their recent run.
Viborg vs AC Horsens — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Viborg vs AC Horsens
Viborg have a commanding head-to-head record against Horsens, winning eight of the last ten encounters and taking the reverse fixture 3-2 away earlier this season. The fixture tends to produce goals, with four of the last five meetings seeing both teams score and at least three goals in each. Horsens' only win in this span came back in 2016, underlining Viborg's dominance.
Viborg vs AC Horsens Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Viborg wins
1
Draws
1
AC Horsens wins
Things to Watch: Viborg vs AC Horsens
- ⚠️No over/under or BTTS odds available, limiting value analysis to the 1x2 market.
- ⚠️Recent Viborg home matches have not ended level, reducing draw likelihood, but Horsens' draw trend counters this.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis; unexpected absences could affect attacking or defensive output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Viborg 2–1 AC HorsensViborg are rightly favoured, but the market overstates their edge given their recent defensive frailties and Horsens' knack for competitive, high-scoring games. The model predicts a 2-1 home win, with Viborg's historical H2H dominance the single strongest data point. However, Horsens' recent draw streak and attacking output mean the most plausible way this goes wrong is a high-scoring stalemate.
Viborg vs AC Horsens: Common Questions
Who will win Viborg vs AC Horsens?
The model gives Viborg a 61% chance of victory, with the draw at 23% and Horsens at 16%. Viborg's strong home record and dominance in this fixture make them favourites, but Horsens' recent form suggests they could keep it close.
Will both teams score in Viborg vs AC Horsens?
There's a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with each side seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches and both averaging over 1.6 goals per game this season.
Is there value in betting on Viborg at current odds?
At odds of 1.42, the implied probability for Viborg is 70%, but the model rates their true chance at 61%, suggesting the price is too short and offers no value for a home win bet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Viborg vs AC Horsens: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.