Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
Würzburger Kickers
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Hansa Rostock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.2(+13% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Late Double Sinks Kickers as Hansa Rostock Dominate in Würzburg
Hansa Rostock claimed a deserved 2-0 victory over Würzburger Kickers at the Flyeralarm Arena, courtesy of two late goals that capped a commanding away performance. Despite a resilient defensive effort from the hosts, Rostock's relentless pressure eventually told, with strikes in the 76th and 90th minutes sealing all three points. The visitors controlled the tempo throughout, enjoying 62% possession and firing 12 shots—eight of which were on target—compared to just three on target from the Kickers. Würzburg struggled to create clear chances, and their resistance was finally broken in the closing stages, leaving them empty-handed despite a spirited display.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
76' — Goal
Hansa Rostock finally broke the deadlock with a well-worked move, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
90' — Goal
Rostock doubled their lead in stoppage time, putting the result beyond doubt.
various' — Yellow Cards
Both sides picked up bookings, with Rostock collecting four and Würzburg two, reflecting the physical nature of the contest.
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers set up in a 4-4-2 and defended stoutly for much of the match, but their inability to retain possession (just 38%) and limited attacking threat ultimately cost them. The hosts managed only six shots, with three on target, and rarely troubled Rostock's back line. While their defensive organization kept them in the contest for 75 minutes, lapses late on saw their resistance crumble. The midfield struggled to assert control, and with only one corner won all match, set-piece opportunities were scarce. Despite the defeat, the Kickers' back four and goalkeeper M. Rajkovačić deserve credit for keeping the scoreline respectable for much of the afternoon.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock delivered a professional away display, dictating play with a 4-2-3-1 formation and dominating possession. Their patient approach eventually paid dividends, as they wore down Würzburg and found the net twice in the final quarter. The visitors' midfield trio controlled proceedings, while their attacking quartet created numerous chances, reflected in their 12 shots and eight on target. Rostock also showed their set-piece prowess, winning nine corners, and their defensive unit kept Würzburg at bay with disciplined pressing and good organization. Four yellow cards highlighted their physical approach, but it did little to disrupt their rhythm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Würzburger Kickers lined up in a traditional 4-4-2, focusing on defensive solidity and compactness. Their two banks of four limited space between the lines, but the lack of midfield control and support for the front two meant they rarely threatened on the break. The home side's inability to transition quickly from defense to attack left their forwards isolated. Hansa Rostock's 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate central areas and stretch the play through their wide midfielders. Their patient build-up and willingness to recycle possession eventually wore down the Kickers' resistance. Rostock's high pressing forced turnovers and their nine corners highlighted their territorial dominance. Substitutions, though not detailed, likely reinforced their attacking impetus late on.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 76th minute, which broke Würzburg's dogged resistance and shifted momentum decisively in Rostock's favor.
Man of the Match
A. Voglsammer
Instrumental in both goals and led the line with intelligence and persistence.
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock: Match Preview
Würzburger Kickers enter this fixture sitting 16th, desperate for points after four losses in their last five league matches, but their home form (2 wins from 3) has been a rare bright spot. Hansa Rostock, sixth in the table, have collected 12 points from seven but are yet to convince defensively, conceding 15 goals and keeping zero clean sheets. The market has Rostock as strong favourites, but Würzburger’s home results and the visitors’ inconsistency away from home (9 goals conceded in 4) suggest a less one-sided contest.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by leaky backlines and a penchant for goals. Würzburger average 1.6 scored and 2.8 conceded per game over their last five, while Rostock are only marginally better defensively but more potent in attack (1.8 scored per game, 5.0 shots on target). Both sides have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5, and Würzburger’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 86% of league outings. Set pieces could play a role, with Rostock averaging 5.4 corners per game recently, but discipline is a concern for both: Rostock have averaged 3.4 yellows per game in their last five.
The model expects a competitive, open game with both sides likely to score and defences under pressure. While Rostock’s attack should edge the contest, Würzburger’s home form and the visitors’ ongoing defensive issues make the draw a more attractive proposition than the market suggests. A 2-1 away win is the modal outcome, but the value sits with a high-scoring stalemate.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
The market strongly favours Hansa Rostock, but the model sees the draw as significantly undervalued at 4.2. Given Würzburger’s home record and both teams’ tendency for high-scoring, error-prone matches, the draw offers a +13% edge over the bookmaker price. Rostock’s odds are too short given their defensive issues, making the away win unattractive at current prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.23
The model gives the draw a 27% probability (implied odds 3.70), while the market is pricing it at 4.2 (24% implied). Both teams have drawn in 4 of their last 10 combined league matches, and Würzburger's home record is competitive even against superior opposition. The edge is +13.4%.
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Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock that most previews miss.
- 1Würzburger Kickers have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their 7 league matches (85.7%), the highest rate in the division.
- 2Hansa Rostock have conceded at least once in every league match this season, and their last five have all featured BTTS.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Würzburger have produced two home wins and a draw, with the away side failing to score more than once in any of those games.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 2.15
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Prediction
Bookmakers have installed Hansa Rostock as clear favourites, but the data suggests Würzburger Kickers' home resilience and the visitors' defensive frailty could make this closer than the odds imply. Both sides are prone to high-scoring games, but neither is especially reliable at the back, and the draw appears undervalued in the market.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Würzburger have a season over 2.5 goals rate of 85.7%.
Defence
- →Würzburger Kickers have conceded 2.8 goals per game across their last five matches, but have lost only once at home this season.
- →Hansa Rostock have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their seven league games, conceding 15 goals.
🚩 Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for Würzburger Kickers and 5.3 for Hansa Rostock, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Würzburger Kickers and Hansa Rostock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Würzburger Kickerslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Hansa Rostocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Würzburger Kickers have struggled for consistency, losing four of their last five league matches, but their home form remains solid with two wins from three. Hansa Rostock arrive in better shape, unbeaten in four of their last five and showing greater attacking threat, but their defensive record on the road is a persistent weakness.
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
The head-to-head record is narrowly in Rostock's favour, with four wins to Würzburger's three in the last eight meetings, but only one of those ended in a draw. Notably, Würzburger have avoided defeat in the last three home H2Hs, suggesting the venue narrows the gap between the sides.
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Würzburger Kickers wins
1
Draws
5
Hansa Rostock wins
Things to Watch: Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides includes friendlies, which may not reflect true competitive strength.
- ⚠️Würzburger's defensive numbers are concerning, especially against a Rostock side averaging 2.14 goals per game.
- ⚠️Market may be overestimating Rostock's away strength given their 9 goals conceded in 4 road games.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Würzburger Kickers 1–2 Hansa RostockThe most likely outcome is a narrow Hansa Rostock win (2-1), driven by their superior attacking numbers and Würzburger’s defensive frailty. However, the strongest data point is Würzburger’s ability to avoid defeat at home against better sides, combined with Rostock’s inability to keep clean sheets. If Würzburger’s attack capitalises on Rostock’s away vulnerabilities, a draw is the likeliest way the model’s prediction could be wrong.
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock: Common Questions
Who will win Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock?
The model gives Hansa Rostock a 55% chance of victory, with Würzburger Kickers at 18% and the draw at 27%. Rostock are favoured due to their attacking output, but the draw has notable value given both teams' defensive records.
Will both teams score in Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock?
There is a 63% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides seeing BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches and neither defence keeping a clean sheet in recent league play.
Is there value in betting the draw in Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock?
Yes, the model rates the draw at 27% probability (implied odds 3.70), while the market offers 4.2 (24% implied), giving a value edge of over 13%. Würzburger’s home resilience and Rostock’s defensive issues support this angle.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.