Worthing vs Southend Predictions

Worthing PredictionsSouthend PredictionsNational LeagueH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
National LeagueNational League · England
high confidence
Worthing

Worthing

AI Predicted Score

2 - 2

Southend

Southend

🗓️ Tuesday, 27 Oct 2026 at 19:45 GMT (venue time) · 19:45 UTC (your time)📍 Sussex Transport Community Stadium, Worthing

Win Probability (1X2)

Worthing 33%Draw 29%Southend 38%

Best Value Pick

BTTS: Yes

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Worthing vs Southend

BTTS: Yes
8/10
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10

Worthing vs Southend: Match Preview

Worthing and Southend meet in a top-five National League clash with both sides boasting strong attacking records and playoff ambitions. Worthing sit fifth on 24 points, having scored 27 in 13 matches, and have won four of seven at home. Southend, third with 27 points, are unbeaten on their travels (4W, 3D) and have netted 18 away goals, the highest in the division.

Statistically, this fixture is shaped by prolific attacks and leaky defences. Worthing’s home matches average 3.14 total goals, while Southend’s away games average 3.71. Both teams feature in the league’s top three for over 2.5 goals (76.9%), and neither keeps clean sheets reliably (Worthing 23.1%, Southend just 7.7%). The last five matches for both sides have seen BTTS land in 3/5 for Worthing and 5/5 for Southend, with each averaging at least 1.8 goals scored and 1.4+ conceded over that span.

Given the attacking rates and defensive frailties, the model expects a high-scoring, open contest. The most likely outcome is a draw, with 2-2 the modal scoreline, but both teams have the firepower to edge it if defensive lapses occur. The likelihood of early goals is high (68% chance of a goal before 30 minutes), and set-piece metrics suggest a decent corners total, though direct set-piece threat is hard to quantify due to missing shot data.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Worthing1.80

Expected goals · model says 1.80

Southend1.90

Expected goals · model says 1.90

Win Probability
Worthing 37% Draw 22% Southend 41%

Over 2.5 Goals

71%

BTTS: Yes

71%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Worthing vs Southend Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
33%
29%
38%
Worthing 33%Draw 29%Southend 38%
Both Teams to Score
75%
25%
Yes 75%No 25%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
73%
27%
Over 2.5 73%Under 2.5 27%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Worthing vs Southend that most previews miss.

  • 1Southend are one of only two National League sides yet to lose away (4W, 3D, 18 scored, 8 conceded).
  • 2Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 10 of their 13 league matches (76.9%).
  • 3Southend have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five games, conceding at least once in each.

Who do you think wins: Worthing vs Southend?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Worthing vs Southend Prediction

This fixture features two of the division’s most attack-minded sides, both averaging over two goals per game and ranking in the top five for goals scored. Southend’s unbeaten away record (4W, 3D) faces a Worthing side with 14 goals in 7 home games, but both teams’ defensive records are less convincing, with clean sheet rates below 25%. The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest shaped by offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Both teams average over 2 goals scored per game (Worthing 2.08, Southend 2.38)

Defence

  • →Neither side keeps clean sheets regularly (Worthing 23.1%, Southend 7.7% clean sheet rate)
  • →Southend remain unbeaten away (4W, 3D, 18 scored, 8 conceded)

How Worthing and Southend Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Worthing vs Southend Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

WorthingWorthinglast 5 matches
R. Coleman De-Graft
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

C. Adjetey-Brew
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

E. Sutton
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

D. Hutchinson
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

R. Aguiar
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. Wadham
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

SouthendSouthendlast 5 matches
P. Omochere
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

R. Colclough
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

L. Twamley
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

S. Kamara
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

B. Goodliffe
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

D. Oldaker
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Worthing have lost their last two in all competitions but won three of their last five league matches, including a 5-0 demolition of Solihull Moors. Southend’s form is steadier, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five, and they remain unbeaten away from home in the league. Both teams are scoring freely but have shown defensive vulnerability, especially Southend, who have conceded in every one of their last five.

Worthing vs Southend — Last 10 Matches

WorthingWorthingLast 10 results
W5-0
W2-1
D1-1
W2-1
W3-1
W1-0
D2-2
D2-2
L2-3
L2-3
Wvs Solihull Moors5-0
W@ Gateshead2-1
D@ Yeovil Town1-1
Wvs FC Halifax Town2-1
W@ Hartlepool3-1
Wvs AFC Hornchurch1-0
Dvs Barrow2-2
D@ AFC Fylde2-2
Lvs Boreham Wood2-3
L@ Tamworth2-3

Strengths

  • +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
SouthendSouthendLast 10 results
W2-1
W3-1
D1-1
L2-4
W6-1
W3-1
D2-2
W3-2
D1-1
L1-3
W@ Boston United2-1
Wvs AFC Fylde3-1
D@ Eastleigh1-1
Lvs Barrow2-4
W@ Gateshead6-1
Wvs Tamworth3-1
D@ Carlisle2-2
Wvs Yeovil Town3-2
D@ Woking1-1
Lvs Kidderminster Harriers1-3

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season

Concerns

  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches

Things to Watch: Worthing vs Southend

  • ⚠️No head-to-head data available between these clubs; model relies on league rates and home/away splits.
  • ⚠️Some match stat categories (shots, possession, corners) are missing for most recent games, limiting granularity.
  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Worthing 2–2 Southend

The model forecasts a 2-2 draw, driven by both teams’ high scoring rates (combined 58 goals in 26 games) and poor clean sheet records. The most robust statistical pointer is the 76.9% over 2.5 goal rate for both sides. The main risk to this scenario is if either attack underperforms or if one team tightens up defensively, but the season-long numbers make a high-scoring contest the default expectation.

Worthing vs Southend: Common Questions

Who will win Worthing vs Southend?

The probabilities are close: Southend win 38%, Worthing 33%, draw 29%. Southend’s unbeaten away record and higher goal difference give them a slight edge, but Worthing’s home scoring rate keeps it tight.

Will both teams score in Worthing vs Southend?

There’s a 75% probability of both teams scoring, as both average over 2 goals scored per game and have kept just one clean sheet between them in their last ten combined matches.

How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?

The model estimates a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both clubs hitting that mark in 10 of their 13 league games and combining for 4.46 total goals per game on average.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Worthing vs Southend: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 20 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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Model Accuracy

Track record & verified results