Worthing vs Sutton Utd Predictions
National League · England
Worthing
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Sutton Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Worthing vs Sutton Utd
Worthing vs Sutton Utd: Match Preview
Worthing approach this match as one of the league's most potent attacking sides, sitting fifth with 24 points from 13 games and averaging over two goals per match. Their recent league form is solid, with two wins and a draw in their last three league outings, though they have suffered back-to-back cup defeats. Sutton Utd, in contrast, are 13th with 18 points, have a negative goal difference, and have struggled to find consistency, particularly away from home.
The key statistical contrast lies in Worthing's attacking output (2.08 goals per game) versus Sutton Utd's modest away scoring (1.0 per away match). Worthing's home matches are high-scoring affairs, with 77% finishing over 2.5 goals, while Sutton Utd's games are more restrained, hitting that mark in just 38% of fixtures. Both teams have defensive weaknesses, each conceding 1.38 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in less than a quarter of their matches. Set piece and discipline data are limited, but both sides average around three cards per match in recent outings, suggesting a competitive edge.
The model expects Worthing's attacking strength to be decisive, especially in the first half, where they have scored six of their last eight goals. Sutton Utd's away record and recent scoring struggles make a comeback less likely, though their late goals keep the draw in play. Overall, the numbers point to a home win in a match with goals at both ends, with Worthing's firepower likely to prove the difference.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Worthing vs Sutton Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Worthing vs Sutton Utd that most previews miss.
- 1Worthing's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of 13 league games (77%), the highest rate among top-six sides.
- 2Sutton Utd have managed only six goals in six away league matches, and have failed to score in two of their last five overall.
- 3Worthing have scored six first-half goals in their last five matches, indicating a tendency to start fast at home.
Who do you think wins: Worthing vs Sutton Utd?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Worthing vs Sutton Utd(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Worthing's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 77% of their league games (10 of 13), and their attack averages 2.08 goals per game, while Sutton Utd concede 1.38 per match. The model assigns a 61% probability to the over.
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Match Result: Worthing Win
Worthing's home record (4W-1D-2L, 2.0 goals for per home game) and Sutton Utd's negative goal difference and modest away scoring (1.0 per away match) drive a 46% home win probability.
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The Case For This Worthing vs Sutton Utd Prediction
Worthing enter this fixture with a strong attacking profile, averaging over two goals per game and sitting fifth in the table, while Sutton Utd have struggled for consistency and find themselves in mid-table with a negative goal difference. The hosts' home form (four wins from seven, 14 goals scored) contrasts with Sutton's average away output (six goals in six games). Both sides have shown defensive frailties, each keeping clean sheets in just 23% of matches, suggesting a contest where goals are likely. The statistical matchup is shaped by Worthing's high-scoring tendencies—77% of their league matches have seen over 2.5 goals, and they have scored five in a single home game recently. Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 1.08 goals per game, but do create enough to threaten, especially late (three of their last five goals arriving after the break). Both teams' defensive records are nearly identical, conceding 1.38 per game, and neither side excels at keeping games tight. Given these rates, the model expects Worthing's attack to set the tone, especially in the first half where they have scored six of their last eight goals. Sutton Utd's away resilience is modest, and their recent form is mixed, but their ability to score late keeps the draw and BTTS in play. The most likely outcome is a Worthing win in a match featuring at least three goals, with the home side's offensive firepower the decisive factor.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Worthing average 2.08 goals scored per game, the second-highest in the top half.
Defence
- →Both teams have kept clean sheets in only 23% of league matches, signalling defensive vulnerability.
Match Context
- →Sutton Utd have scored just 14 goals in 13 matches and have a negative goal difference.
How Worthing and Sutton Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Worthing vs Sutton Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Worthinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sutton Utdlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worthing's recent form is positive in the league, with two wins and a draw from their last three, but they have suffered two consecutive cup defeats. Sutton Utd have mixed momentum, winning their last two in cup competitions but failing to win any of their last three league games, including a home defeat and an away draw.
Worthing vs Sutton Utd — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
What History Says: Worthing vs Sutton Utd
Head-to-head history is limited and dated, with just two FA Trophy meetings in 2017 resulting in a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 away win for Worthing. These high-scoring encounters offer little direct predictive value given the time elapsed and changes in squad and context.
Worthing vs Sutton Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Worthing wins
1
Draws
1
Sutton Utd wins
Things to Watch: Worthing vs Sutton Utd
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value assessment limited.
- ⚠️Recent cup matches may have involved rotated squads, slightly distorting last 5 form.
- ⚠️Head-to-head data is sparse and outdated, offering little predictive value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Worthing 2–1 Sutton UtdThe model projects a 2-1 win for Worthing, with the home side's 2.08 goals per game and high over 2.5 goal rate the strongest statistical signal. The main risk is Sutton Utd's capacity to frustrate and score late, as evidenced by their recent draws, but Worthing's attacking consistency at home makes them deserved favourites.
Worthing vs Sutton Utd: Common Questions
Who will win Worthing vs Sutton Utd?
Worthing are favoured with a 46% win probability, based on their strong home record and attacking output (2.08 goals per game), while Sutton Utd's away form and negative goal difference limit their chances (24% win probability).
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Worthing vs Sutton Utd?
The model gives a 61% probability to over 2.5 goals, driven by Worthing's 77% season rate for this market and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities (each conceding 1.38 per match).
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 55%, reflecting Worthing's attacking consistency and Sutton Utd's tendency to concede, though the away side's modest scoring rate tempers confidence.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Worthing vs Sutton Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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