AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Real Sociedad II
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 2.9(+7% edge)
Match Result
6/10Ceuta and Real Sociedad II Play Out Stalemate in Feisty Segunda División Clash
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II battled to a goalless draw at the Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, with both sides creating chances but ultimately lacking the clinical edge to break the deadlock. Ceuta enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (59%) and outshot their visitors 15 to 16, but could only muster four shots on target, while Real Sociedad II were similarly profligate with three efforts on target from 16 attempts. The match was marked by its physicality, with 42 fouls committed and six yellow cards brandished by the referee. Ceuta’s attacking trio pressed for a breakthrough, but Real Sociedad II’s disciplined back line and combative midfield, marshaled by Gorka Gorosabel, stood firm. Ultimately, despite tactical tweaks and a frantic finish, neither side could find a decisive moment, leaving both to settle for a point apiece.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Yellow Card
First booking for Real Sociedad II as the match’s physical tone is set early.
41' — Yellow Card
Ceuta’s Kuki Zalazar cautioned after a tactical foul in midfield.
55' — Ceuta Chance
Bassinga forces a save from Arana with a powerful drive.
68' — Yellow Card
Fourth yellow card for Real Sociedad II, highlighting their aggressive defending.
77' — Real Sociedad II Chance
Dani Díaz goes close, but Vallejo makes a crucial stop.
90' — Full Time
Referee blows for full time after a scrappy, hard-fought contest.
AD Ceuta FC
Ceuta controlled proceedings for large spells, dictating the tempo with 59% possession and looking to build through their midfield trio. They created more clear-cut opportunities, registering 15 shots, but only four tested Egoitz Arana in the Real Sociedad II goal. The home side’s forwards, including Aboubacar Bassinga and Marcos Fernández, were lively but found little joy against a resolute visiting defense. Defensively, Ceuta remained organized, limiting Real Sociedad II to just three shots on target. However, their inability to convert possession into goals, coupled with some wastefulness in the final third, ultimately cost them two points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II adopted a pragmatic approach, soaking up pressure and looking to hit Ceuta on the counter. Despite seeing less of the ball (41% possession), they matched Ceuta for shots (16) and showed flashes of attacking intent through Dani Díaz and Gorka Carrera Zarranz. Their midfield, led by Gorka Gorosabel, was industrious, breaking up play and disrupting Ceuta’s rhythm. Defensively, the visitors were robust, committing 25 fouls and picking up four yellow cards, but managed to frustrate Ceuta’s forwards. While they created a handful of promising moments, their finishing let them down, and they were unable to capitalize on their opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ceuta lined up in a 4-3-3, looking to control the ball through their midfield and use width to stretch the Real Sociedad II defense. Their full-backs pushed high, but the final ball was often lacking. The away side’s 4-3-1-2 formation prioritized solidity, with a compact midfield diamond that congested central areas and forced Ceuta wide. Both teams pressed energetically, but as the match wore on, fatigue and the high foul count disrupted the flow. Real Sociedad II’s willingness to break up play with fouls prevented Ceuta from building momentum, while their own attacking forays were sporadic and lacked numbers in the box. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as both sides ultimately settled into a risk-averse rhythm late on.
Turning Point
A flurry of yellow cards and tactical fouls around the hour mark broke up Ceuta’s rhythm and ensured Real Sociedad II could hold on for a draw.
Man of the Match
Gorka Gorosabel
His tireless midfield work and defensive discipline were crucial in stifling Ceuta’s attacks and securing a hard-earned point for Real Sociedad II.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.9
Model probability for under 2.5 goals (0.41) is higher than the odds-implied probability (0.34), and both teams' recent attacking output is modest. Ceuta's last 5 have averaged 3.8 goals, but this is skewed by one heavy defeat; Real Sociedad II have failed to score in 2 of 5 and generally play lower-scoring games.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.35
The draw is slightly undervalued by the market. Both teams have inconsistent form and Ceuta's home/away splits suggest a close contest. Real Sociedad II have drawn 7 this season, and Ceuta have drawn 6.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Prediction
AD Ceuta FC host Real Sociedad II in a mid-table Segunda clash where both sides are looking to stabilise after recent mixed results. Ceuta's home record is strong (11W in 16), but their recent form is patchy, conceding too many goals. Real Sociedad II are on a 3-game losing streak in the league but have shown some resilience away from home. Both teams average over a goal per game but also concede regularly, suggesting potential for goals, though the market may be overestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Expect a competitive match, with Ceuta slight favourites due to home advantage.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams' recent form is inconsistent: Ceuta DWLLL, RSII LLLWW.
- →First H2H this season: Ceuta won 3-1 away.
Defence
- →Ceuta's attack (1.27 gpg) vs RSII's defence (1.75 conceded away per game).
- →Ceuta have not kept a clean sheet in last 5, RSII have 2 clean sheets in last 5.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Ceuta's home record: 11W, 1D, 4L, +7 GD at home.
- →Real Sociedad II away: 4W, 2D, 10L, -8 GD.
🚩 AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for AD Ceuta FC and 5 for Real Sociedad II, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Real Sociedad IIlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
What History Says: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
AD Ceuta FC wins
1
Draws
0
Real Sociedad II wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H (small sample).
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is volatile, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Some missing data for corners/fouls in away recent matches.
- ⚠️League motivation unclear; both teams mid-table, may affect intensity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.