Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Fateh
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 0 - 1
Al Shabab
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Al Shabab Outclass 10-Man Al-Fateh in Convincing 3-1 Away Win
Al Shabab produced a commanding performance at the Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, securing a 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh in the Saudi Pro League. The visitors took control early, with goals in the 17th and 31st minutes, and capitalized further after Al-Fateh were reduced to ten men. Despite a brief resurgence from the hosts, Al Shabab's dominance in possession and attacking intent proved decisive. Al-Fateh, set up in a defensive 5-4-1, struggled to contain Al Shabab's fluid 4-4-2, conceding twice before halftime. A red card further hampered their efforts, and although they pulled one back in the 40th minute, the visitors' third goal shortly after the restart ended any hopes of a comeback. Al Shabab's superior shot count (25 total, 10 on target) and 60% possession reflected their control throughout.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
Roger Martínez puts Al Shabab ahead after sustained pressure.
31' — Goal
Al Shabab double their lead, capitalizing on defensive disarray.
40' — Goal
W. Kanga pulls one back for Al-Fateh, briefly reigniting the contest.
54' — Goal
Al Shabab restore their two-goal cushion, effectively sealing the win.
Second half' — Red Card
Al-Fateh reduced to ten men, further tilting the contest.
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh set up defensively but were overwhelmed by Al Shabab's relentless pressure, conceding twice in the opening half-hour. Despite showing some fight with a goal before halftime, their task became nearly impossible after a red card reduced them to ten men. The hosts managed 16 shots but only 3 on target, and struggled to create clear chances against a well-drilled opponent.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Shabab
Al Shabab delivered a composed and incisive display, controlling possession (60%) and peppering the Al-Fateh goal with 25 shots. Their midfield dictated the tempo, and the front two were a constant menace. After racing to a 2-0 lead, they responded well to conceding and quickly restored a two-goal cushion in the second half, managing the game professionally thereafter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Fateh's 5-4-1 formation was designed to absorb pressure, but the lack of midfield support left them exposed against Al Shabab's dynamic 4-4-2. The visitors exploited the flanks and overloaded the central areas, with Podence and Adli orchestrating play. Al Shabab's high pressing forced errors, while their full-backs pushed forward to create overloads. After the red card, Al-Fateh were forced deeper, and Al Shabab managed possession to see out the result. Substitutions from both sides focused on shoring up midfield and introducing fresh legs, but the tactical battle was won early by Al Shabab's proactive approach.
Turning Point
The red card to Al-Fateh early in the second half, which extinguished any realistic hopes of a comeback.
Man of the Match
Roger Martínez
His opening goal and relentless attacking play set the tone for Al Shabab's dominance.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab: Match Preview
Al-Fateh enter this fixture rooted to the foot of the Pro League table, still seeking their first win after eight rounds and coming off a bruising 0-4 home defeat. Their form string of LLLDD reflects a side struggling at both ends, with just four goals scored and 15 conceded. Al Shabab, while only marginally better off in 12th, arrive buoyed by a 3-0 win but have also found victories elusive, drawing four and losing three of eight. Both sides are in need of points, but neither has shown the firepower to dominate.
The statistical matchup is defined by anaemic attacks and relatively robust defences given their league positions. Al-Fateh average just 0.5 goals per game this season, with a solitary goal at home in four outings. Al Shabab’s away record is only slightly more productive (0.67 goals per game), but they have conceded just three in as many away trips. Both teams average under 11 shots per match and under 4.5 on target, and their combined last 10 matches have produced just 13 goals. Set piece threat is moderate, with Al Shabab averaging over five corners per game in recent weeks, but neither side has shown a consistent edge from dead balls.
The model expects a slow-burning contest, with a high likelihood of a goalless first half and a single moment likely to separate the sides. Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured given the underlying rates, and the draw is the modal outcome, with Al Shabab’s marginally better attacking output tipping the balance slightly in their favour. A 0-1 or 0-0 result is the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Fateh have scored just once in 360 home minutes this season, the lowest home output in the league.
- 2Al Shabab’s away matches average just 1.67 total goals (2 scored, 3 conceded in 3).
- 3Four of the last seven H2H meetings have ended in a draw, including two of the last three in Al-Hofuf.
Who do you think wins: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides have drawn over half their away/home matches respectively (Al-Fateh 3/8, Al Shabab 4/8), and neither attack shows the cutting edge to break open a low-scoring contest, with a combined 1.63 goals scored per game this season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in half their league matches, and Al-Fateh’s home games average just 2.0 goals per match (1 scored, 7 conceded in 4), while Al Shabab’s away games average 1.67 (2 scored, 3 conceded in 3).
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BTTS: No
Al-Fateh have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and have just 1 goal in 4 home matches; Al Shabab have 2 away goals in 3 and 2 clean sheets in their last 5 overall.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-scoring, tight encounter between two sides struggling for attacking fluency. Al-Fateh’s home record is winless with a single goal scored in four attempts, while Al Shabab’s away output is only marginally better, netting twice in three games. Both teams’ season-long rates point to a contest likely to be decided by a single goal, if at all.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al-Fateh have scored just 0.5 goals per game this season, the lowest in the league.
Defence
- →Al Shabab have drawn four of eight matches and have only one win, but concede at a rate of 1.38 per match.
- →Both sides have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but Al-Fateh have failed to score in three of those.
🚩 Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Al-Fateh and 5.4 for Al Shabab, for an expected total of 10.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 76% · Over 10.5: 53%.
How Al-Fateh and Al Shabab Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Al Shabablast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Fateh are mired in a three-match losing streak, failing to score in their last two and conceding six in the process. Al Shabab, by contrast, are coming off a 3-0 win but have only one victory in their last five, with two clean sheets and two matches where they failed to score. Momentum is limited for both, but Al Shabab’s recent win gives them a marginal psychological edge.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
The last ten meetings are balanced, with three wins apiece and four draws. Al-Fateh have edged recent home encounters, winning 2-0 and 3-1 in the last two seasons, but four of the last seven have finished level, including two 1-1s. The fixture trends low-scoring and competitive.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al-Fateh wins
3
Draws
4
Al Shabab wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be precisely quantified. However, model probabilities suggest the market may overestimate the likelihood of goals and underestimate the draw, given both teams' low scoring rates and high draw frequency. If under 2.5 goals is priced above 1.50 or the draw above 3.00, those would represent value positions.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams are underperforming their xG based on shot volumes, which could regress.
- ⚠️Recent lineups show some rotation, but no major injuries are reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Fateh 0–1 Al ShababThe data points to a narrow away win or a draw, with 0-1 the likeliest scoreline. Al-Fateh’s inability to score at home (one goal in four) is the single strongest factor. The main risk is that Al Shabab’s own attacking limitations and tendency to draw could see the match finish goalless.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
The model gives Al Shabab a 37% chance of victory, with the draw slightly more likely at 44%. Al-Fateh are rated just 19% to win, reflecting their winless start and lack of goals.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Both teams to score is rated at just 31%, with 'No' at 69%. Al-Fateh have failed to score in three of their last five and average 0.25 goals per home game, while Al Shabab have kept two clean sheets in five.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 68% probability. Both teams have seen under 2.5 in half their league matches, and their combined season averages point to a low-scoring contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.