Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Hazm
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al-Fateh
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.2/10Late Al-Fateh Surge Stuns Al-Hazm in Five-Goal Thriller
Al-Fateh produced a dramatic late comeback to defeat Al-Hazm 3-2 at the Al Hazm Club Stadium, overturning a deficit with two goals in the final minutes. Both sides set up in mirrored 3-4-3 formations, and the match ebbed and flowed with intensity, but it was Al-Hazm who struck first in the 17th minute. Al-Fateh responded ten minutes later, and after Al-Hazm regained the lead early in the second half, the visitors pressed relentlessly, eventually breaking through with goals in the 88th and 90th minutes to snatch all three points. The contest was fiercely competitive, with Al-Fateh dominating possession (57%) and registering 15 shots to Al-Hazm's 12. Despite being outplayed for stretches, Al-Hazm’s defensive resilience and clinical finishing kept them ahead until late on. However, Al-Fateh’s superior width and attacking depth, reflected in their 10 corners and 6 shots on target, ultimately proved decisive as they capitalized on late opportunities to seal a memorable away win.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
A. Sayoud puts Al-Hazm ahead with a well-taken finish.
27' — Goal
Al-Fateh equalize, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
49' — Goal
Al-Hazm retake the lead early in the second half.
88' — Goal
Al-Fateh draw level with a late strike, setting up a frantic finish.
90' — Goal
W. Kanga completes the comeback for Al-Fateh with a dramatic winner.
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm started brightly, taking the lead in the 17th minute and showing discipline in their 3-4-3 setup. They defended resolutely and were efficient in front of goal, converting two of their five shots on target. However, they struggled to maintain possession and came under increasing pressure as the match wore on. Despite regaining the lead early in the second half, their inability to control the midfield and manage the closing stages cost them dearly, conceding twice in the final moments.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh showcased impressive resilience and attacking ambition, controlling possession and creating more chances throughout. Their 57% possession and 15 total shots reflected their dominance, and they consistently threatened from wide areas, earning 10 corners. After falling behind twice, Al-Fateh’s persistence paid off with two late goals, demonstrating both tactical flexibility and mental strength to secure a dramatic victory on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 3-4-3 formation, leading to a dynamic contest with plenty of width and overlapping runs from midfield. Al-Fateh’s greater control in midfield, aided by Ali Al Hassan and Z. Youssouf, allowed them to dictate the tempo and stretch Al-Hazm’s back three, especially through set pieces and wide play. The visitors’ 10 corners highlighted their territorial advantage and ability to pin Al-Hazm deep. Al-Hazm, meanwhile, looked to break quickly and were effective when able to transition, but their lack of sustained possession eventually told as they tired under pressure. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh legs for both sides, but it was Al-Fateh’s attacking changes that tipped the balance late on.
Turning Point
Al-Fateh’s equalizer in the 88th minute shifted the momentum decisively, breaking Al-Hazm’s defensive resolve and paving the way for the stoppage-time winner.
Man of the Match
W. Kanga
Scored the decisive 90th-minute winner and led the line with relentless energy throughout.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: Match Preview
Al-Hazm enter this fixture 10th in the table with a modest return of eight points from seven matches, having managed just two wins and a negative goal difference. Their recent form is mixed (LWDDL), but they have proven hard to break down at home, conceding only twice in three home outings. Al-Fateh, meanwhile, sit 15th, still searching for a first win of the campaign and averaging just 0.57 goals per game, the lowest in the division. With both sides in the bottom half and Al-Fateh desperate to halt their winless run, the stakes are high for momentum if not for immediate relegation pressure.
Statistically, the matchup points to a low-tempo, low-scoring affair. Al-Hazm average 1.0 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per match, while Al-Fateh's away defence is porous (8 conceded in 4), but their attack away from home is equally blunt (3 in 4). Both teams have a clean sheet rate below 30% and have failed to score in multiple recent fixtures. The first half is likely to be especially cagey: both sides have scored only three first-half goals in their last five, and the last two H2H meetings produced just one first-half goal combined. Set-piece threat is limited, with neither team averaging more than 4.2 corners per game recently.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a match dictated by caution and limited attacking risk. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a slight edge to Al-Hazm due to home advantage and Al-Fateh's ongoing struggles in front of goal. A 1-1 scoreline is favoured, with under 2.5 goals the most likely totals market outcome. Any deviation is most likely to come from a defensive lapse rather than sustained attacking pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Hazm's home matches have averaged just 1.33 total goals (2 for, 2 against in 3 games).
- 2Al-Fateh have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 0.57 goals per game this season.
- 3Four of the last six head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average under 1.3 goals conceded per game and have drawn three of their last five combined, with the 1-1 scoreline historically common in this matchup.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 57% of their league matches (season over 2.5%: 42.86%), and their last three combined games averaged just 2.0 goals.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Prediction
A low-scoring contest is projected, with both Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh struggling for attacking output and showing similar defensive records. The model expects a tight, risk-averse encounter, with neither side likely to dominate for long spells.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al-Fateh are winless through seven matches, scoring just four goals (0.57 per game).
Defence
- →Al-Hazm's home matches average just 1.33 goals per game (2 scored, 2 conceded in 3).
- →Both teams have a clean sheet rate of 28.57% and have failed to score in at least one of their last five.
🚩 Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Al-Hazm and 5.7 for Al-Fateh, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Hazmlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Al-Hazm have taken five points from their last five matches (W1 D2 L2), with a notable home win over Al Taawon but also a recent 1-3 defeat to Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Fateh are winless in their last five (L2 D3), scoring just three times and conceding seven, with their attack particularly struggling away from home. Both sides have been involved in multiple draws, underlining their current lack of cutting edge.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
The last two meetings between these sides ended in draws (1-1 and 0-0), and four of the last six have finished under 2.5 goals. Al-Fateh have a slight historical edge with five wins in the last ten, but recent encounters have been tightly contested and low-scoring.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al-Hazm wins
2
Draws
5
Al-Fateh wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
With no bookmaker odds available at present, it's not possible to quantify value edges. The model would look for value on the draw and under 2.5 goals if market odds offered a meaningful margin over the model's 37% and 59% probabilities, respectively. In the absence of odds, focus should remain on the most statistically probable outcomes.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value estimation not possible.
- ⚠️Recent form is poor for both sides, increasing draw and low-goal probability but also variance.
- ⚠️Lineups not released; late injuries or rotations could impact attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Hazm 1–1 Al-FatehThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, with the strongest supporting data point being both sides' season-long scoring rates (Al-Hazm 1.0, Al-Fateh 0.57 per game) and the high frequency of low-scoring H2H results. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Al-Fateh's defensive issues on the road are exploited more clinically than their recent opponents managed.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
The model gives Al-Hazm a 38% chance of victory, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a draw 37%. Both teams have struggled for wins and goals, so a stalemate is slightly favoured.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Under 2.5 goals is more likely, with a 59% model probability. Both sides average less than 1.3 goals conceded per game, and only 43% of their matches this season have gone over 2.5.
Is both teams to score a good bet for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
It's close to a coin-flip: the model rates both teams to score at 51%. Both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five, but their season-long attacks are among the league's weakest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.