AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Predictions
Premier League · Egypt
AL Masry
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 0
Abu Qair Semad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.6(+31% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama in Port Said as AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad Share the Spoils
AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad played out a tense 1-1 draw at the Al Masry Club Stadium, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. The visitors struck first through Ali Hussein in the 64th minute, capitalizing on a rare lapse in the home defense. However, AL Masry responded with renewed urgency, finally breaking through in the 79th minute as Salah Mohsen found the net to restore parity. The hosts enjoyed the lion's share of possession (55%) and fired 14 shots, 6 of which tested M. Genesh in the Abu Qair Semad goal. Despite their attacking intent and a late push, AL Masry could not convert dominance into victory. Abu Qair Semad, meanwhile, were organized and efficient, making the most of their limited opportunities (8 shots, 3 on target) and nearly snatching all three points before being pegged back.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
64' — Goal
Ali Hussein scores for Abu Qair Semad, finishing a quick counterattack to give the visitors the lead.
79' — Goal
Salah Mohsen levels for AL Masry after sustained attacking pressure.
45' — Yellow Card
AL Masry's player receives a booking just before halftime, reflecting rising tension.
52' — Yellow Card
Abu Qair Semad pick up their only yellow card as the hosts press forward.
AL Masry
AL Masry controlled the tempo for much of the match, pressing high and circulating possession well in their 4-2-3-1 setup. Their attacking midfielders, particularly Ahmed El Armouty and Hussein Faisal, probed the Abu Qair Semad backline, but clear-cut chances were at a premium. After conceding against the run of play, AL Masry showed character to rally and equalize, but their finishing let them down in key moments. Defensively, they were generally solid but momentarily switched off for the opening goal. The late surge after falling behind was commendable, but ultimately, a lack of clinical edge in front of goal cost them the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Abu Qair Semad
Abu Qair Semad set up in a compact 4-5-1 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to break quickly. Their midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt AL Masry's rhythm, and they were rewarded when Ali Hussein finished a swift move just after the hour mark. M. Genesh made several important saves to keep his side in the contest. While they struggled to impose themselves in possession (45%), Abu Qair Semad were disciplined and nearly executed a classic away win. However, they were eventually undone by sustained pressure and had to settle for a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
AL Masry's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate possession and control midfield, with overlapping fullbacks and dynamic movement from their attacking trio behind Salah Mohsen. Their pressing forced Abu Qair Semad deep, but the visitors' 4-5-1 shape was effective in congesting central areas and limiting space for AL Masry's creators. Abu Qair Semad focused on defensive organization and quick transitions, often leaving Ali Hussein isolated up front but supporting him with midfield runners when possible. Substitutions in the second half saw both managers inject fresh legs, but neither side altered their fundamental approach, with AL Masry pushing for a winner and Abu Qair Semad content to absorb pressure and counter.
Turning Point
Salah Mohsen's equalizer in the 79th minute shifted momentum and ensured AL Masry salvaged a point after falling behind.
Man of the Match
Salah Mohsen
His timely equalizer capped a lively performance and rescued a draw for AL Masry.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad: Match Preview
AL Masry approach this fixture from mid-table, sitting 12th with seven points from six games, but with a concerning lack of home firepower—just one goal scored in three at the Borg El Arab. Abu Qair Semad, 17th and already struggling for points, have found the net only once in five league games and are yet to score away from home. Both sides come in on the back of draws in their most recent cup outings, but neither has built momentum, with AL Masry's form string at DWLLL and Abu Qair Semad's at DLLLL.
The statistical matchup is defined by attacking bluntness and low shot volumes from the visitors (6.8 shots, 2.0 on target per game in their last five), while AL Masry at least generate more opportunities (13.4 shots, 2.8 on target). Defensive numbers are modest on both sides, but Abu Qair Semad's 1.6 goals conceded per game is paired with a 0% away scoring rate. Set piece threat is limited for both, with corners per game below league average, and neither side has a recent history of high-card matches (combined 3.4 yellows per game).
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring contest with AL Masry's higher shot volume and home advantage likely to edge a narrow result. The most probable outcome is a 1-0 home win, but the high probability of a goalless first half and the visitors' defensive posture suggest a draw cannot be ruled out if AL Masry's attack continues to misfire.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.50
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
BTTS: Yes
26%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad that most previews miss.
- 1Abu Qair Semad have failed to score in all three away league matches this season, conceding six without reply.
- 2AL Masry's home matches average just 1.33 total goals per game (1 scored, 0.33 conceded per match).
- 3Across the last five combined league matches for both teams, only one saw both teams score.
Who do you think wins: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.6
Only one of Abu Qair Semad's five league matches has seen both teams score, and they've failed to score in four of five; AL Masry have kept one clean sheet but face the league's lowest attack (0.2 goals/game).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.55
Abu Qair Semad's matches have yet to go over 2.5 goals this season (0%), and AL Masry's home games average just 1.0 goal for and 1.0 against per match.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
Both sides struggle for goals and AL Masry have drawn two of their last four in all competitions; a low-scoring stalemate is plausible given the attacking numbers.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides with below-average attacking output and a recent pattern of low-scoring matches, particularly from Abu Qair Semad, who have failed to score in four of their five league outings. AL Masry have shown slightly more attacking intent at home but remain blunt, averaging just 0.33 goals per home game. The statistical shape of the match points to a contest likely to be decided by a single goal, if at all.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AL Masry average 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded per game, but only 0.33 scored at home.
- →Neither team has a clean sheet in their last three league matches, but Abu Qair Semad's attack is the least productive in the division.
Match Context
- →Abu Qair Semad have scored just one goal in five league matches (0.2 per game) and none away from home.
🚩 AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for AL Masry and 4.3 for Abu Qair Semad, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 51%.
How AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AL Masrylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Abu Qair Semadlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
AL Masry's recent form is mixed, with a win, a draw, and three losses in their last five, but their main issue is scoring—just three goals in that span. Abu Qair Semad are in a worse run, losing four of five league matches and scoring only once, with a solitary point from their last four outings. Neither side brings momentum, but AL Masry's higher shot output gives them a slight edge.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
Their only two recent meetings, both in the 2021–22 Second League, were low scoring: AL Masry won 1-0 at home and drew 1-1 away. No match between these sides has produced more than two goals, and both have typically struggled to break each other down.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
AL Masry wins
2
Draws
0
Abu Qair Semad wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
The largest model edge is on 'both teams to score: no', where the model's 82% probability far exceeds the typical market implied probability near 62%, reflecting Abu Qair Semad's chronic scoring issues. Under 2.5 goals is also a strong value at 79% model probability. The draw is slightly underrated by the market, but the main value sits with low-goals markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams in the top flight may mask underlying improvement or decline.
- ⚠️Lack of available bookmaker odds at time of writing limits precision on value edges.
- ⚠️Recent lineups and tactical changes are not fully observable due to missing data for some matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AL Masry 1–0 Abu Qair SemadThe model projects a 1-0 win for AL Masry, driven by Abu Qair Semad's league-worst attack (0.2 goals/game, four blanks in five). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if AL Masry's own home scoring struggles (one goal in three) persist and the match drifts to a goalless draw.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad: Common Questions
Who will win AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad?
AL Masry are favoured with a 51% probability of victory, compared to 33% for the draw and just 16% for Abu Qair Semad. This is based on AL Masry's superior shot volume and home advantage, but their own scoring rate is low, so a draw remains a significant risk.
Will both teams score in AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 18%, with 'no' landing in 82% of model simulations. Abu Qair Semad have failed to score in four of five league matches and are goalless away from home.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is rated at 79% probability. Both teams average well under one goal scored per game, and Abu Qair Semad's matches have not gone over 2.5 goals all season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.