AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Predictions
Premier League · Egypt
AL Masry
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al Ittihad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+17% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Clinical Al Ittihad Punish Wasteful AL Masry in 2-0 Away Triumph
Al Ittihad stunned AL Masry at the Borg El Arab Stadium with a ruthless 2-0 victory, capitalizing on their chances despite being under pressure for much of the match. The hosts dominated possession with 62% and peppered the visitors' goal with 16 shots, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Al Ittihad, meanwhile, absorbed pressure and struck decisively through goals in the 58th and 90th minutes, showcasing a textbook counter-attacking display. AL Masry's profligacy was compounded by their inability to convert 12 corners and 5 shots on target into a single goal. Al Ittihad, though less dominant in the build-up, were clinical when it mattered, with Hossam Hassan leading the line and the midfield providing the necessary support. The result leaves AL Masry ruing missed opportunities and Al Ittihad celebrating a hard-fought away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
58' — Goal
Al Ittihad open the scoring with a clinical finish, punishing AL Masry's missed chances.
70' — Yellow Card
AL Masry pick up their second booking as frustration mounts.
90' — Goal
Al Ittihad seal the win with a late goal on the counter, ending AL Masry's hopes.
90+2' — Yellow Card
A third yellow card for AL Masry as tempers flare in stoppage time.
AL Masry
AL Masry started brightly, controlling the tempo and stretching Al Ittihad's defensive lines with their 4-4-2 formation. They consistently found space out wide and racked up an impressive 12 corners, but their finishing let them down. Despite 16 total shots and 5 on target, the hosts failed to find a breakthrough, often running into a well-organized Al Ittihad backline and an inspired performance from Sobhi Soliman in goal. Frustration grew as the match wore on, culminating in three yellow cards as their composure slipped late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad executed their game plan to perfection, sitting deep in a disciplined 4-2-3-1 and soaking up AL Masry's pressure. Despite conceding the majority of possession and facing a barrage of corners, their back four remained resolute. The visitors were opportunistic on the break, making the most of their 9 shots (4 on target) and converting two key chances. Their midfield, led by Mohamed Toni and K. Semakula, provided crucial support both defensively and in transition, allowing Al Ittihad to strike decisively when AL Masry overcommitted.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
AL Masry deployed a classic 4-4-2, seeking to dominate possession and exploit width, as evidenced by their high corner count and territorial advantage. Their full-backs pushed high, and the midfield quartet looked to overload the flanks, but Al Ittihad's compact 4-2-3-1 shape denied them space in central areas. Al Ittihad's double pivot shielded the back four effectively and launched quick transitions, with the attacking trio supporting Hossam Hassan on the break. The visitors' tactical discipline was key, as they absorbed pressure and struck at opportune moments, particularly as AL Masry committed numbers forward late in the game.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 58th minute, which shifted momentum and forced AL Masry to chase the game, exposing them to the decisive late counter.
Man of the Match
Sobhi Soliman
Produced a string of crucial saves and commanded his area under relentless pressure to secure a clean sheet.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad: Match Preview
AL Masry and Al Ittihad enter this fixture separated by a single point after four rounds, with AL Masry eighth and Al Ittihad sixth in the early Premier League standings. AL Masry have lost their last two but remain solid at home, while Al Ittihad arrive on a two-match winning streak, including a clean sheet away at Abu Qair Semad. Both sides have shown a tendency for narrow margins, with only one draw between them so far this league campaign.
The statistical matchup is defined by low output at both ends: AL Masry’s home games average just 1 goal for and 1 against, while Al Ittihad have yet to concede on their travels (2 scored, 0 conceded in two away games). Both teams’ last five matches average just over two total goals, and Al Ittihad’s 75% clean sheet rate is among the league’s best. Shot volumes are modest (AL Masry 10.4, Al Ittihad 10.2 per game), and neither side has shown a consistent set-piece threat, with corners per game at or below league average.
The model expects a tactical, risk-averse contest with limited clear chances. With both teams’ defensive numbers outpacing their attacking output, the likeliest outcome is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 scoreline most probable. The main threat to this scenario is a set-piece breakthrough or an early goal forcing one side to open up.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AL Masry vs Al Ittihad that most previews miss.
- 1Al Ittihad have kept three clean sheets in four league matches this season (75% clean sheet rate).
- 2Only one of the last five H2H meetings has produced more than 2.5 goals.
- 3AL Masry’s home matches this season average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded.
Who do you think wins: AL Masry vs Al Ittihad?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AL Masry vs Al Ittihad(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.04
Both teams average just over a goal per game (AL Masry 1.25, Al Ittihad 1.00), with defensive records nearly identical (1.25 and 0.75 conceded per game). The draw probability is modelled at 36%, above the 31% implied by the odds, with neither side showing clear attacking superiority and three draws in their last ten H2H.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.45
Al Ittihad’s matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 3 of 4 this season, and both teams’ last five average just 2.2 total goals per game. The model gives a 73% chance of under 2.5, a modest edge over the market.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, closely contested match between two sides with nearly identical scoring and concession rates. AL Masry average 1.25 goals for and against per game, while Al Ittihad are at 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded, with both teams showing a recent trend towards clean sheets and tight margins. The draw probability is elevated by the lack of attacking separation and the defensive solidity both have displayed, particularly Al Ittihad’s three clean sheets in four league outings.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AL Masry have scored 5 and conceded 5 in 4 league matches (1.25 for/against per game).
- →Al Ittihad have conceded just 3 goals in 4 matches, with 3 clean sheets (season clean sheet rate 75%).
Match Context
- →Only 1 of Al Ittihad’s 4 league games has gone over 2.5 goals (25% over 2.5 rate).
🚩 AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for AL Masry and 5.2 for Al Ittihad, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How AL Masry and Al Ittihad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AL Masrylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Ittihadlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AL Masry have stumbled with two straight defeats after a pair of opening wins, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five. Al Ittihad, by contrast, have built momentum with back-to-back wins and three clean sheets in their last four, conceding just once in that span. Both sides have shown defensive discipline but lack consistent attacking output.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +80% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: AL Masry vs Al Ittihad
AL Masry have the historical edge, winning five of the last ten meetings, with three draws and two Al Ittihad victories. Recent encounters have trended low-scoring, with just one of the last five H2H going over 2.5 goals. The last three at this ground have all finished in favour of the home side or as draws.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
AL Masry wins
3
Draws
2
Al Ittihad wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AL Masry vs Al Ittihad
The draw market offers the clearest value, with the model’s 36% probability outstripping the 31% implied by odds of 3.25. There is also a modest edge on under 2.5 goals, as the model’s 73% probability is slightly above the market’s 69% implied by odds of 1.45. No significant value is found in the BTTS market, where the probabilities and odds are closely aligned.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AL Masry vs Al Ittihad
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams’ current season stats (4 games).
- ⚠️Recent form streaks (AL Masry L2, Al Ittihad W2) could reflect short-term variance.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AL Masry 1–1 Al IttihadThe model projects a 1-1 draw, with the strongest data point being Al Ittihad’s defensive record (0 goals conceded away, 75% clean sheet rate) against AL Masry’s modest home attack. The most plausible way this forecast fails is if an early goal disrupts the pattern, forcing either side to chase the game and opening up space for a second-half winner.
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad: Common Questions
Who will win AL Masry vs Al Ittihad?
The model gives AL Masry a 39% chance to win, Al Ittihad 25%, and the draw 36%. Both teams have similar scoring rates and defensive records, making a draw the likeliest single outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in AL Masry vs Al Ittihad?
There is a 73% probability of under 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging just over 2 total goals per match and only one of Al Ittihad’s league games going over 2.5 this season.
Are both teams likely to score in AL Masry vs Al Ittihad?
The model estimates a 41% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Al Ittihad’s strong clean sheet rate (three in four) and AL Masry’s occasional attacking struggles at home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AL Masry vs Al Ittihad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.