Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 2
Al-Ittihad FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Match Result
6.5/10En-Nesyri Strike Seals Tight Win for Al-Ittihad Over Al-Qadisiyah
A solitary goal from Youssef En-Nesyri on the stroke of half-time proved decisive as Al-Ittihad edged past Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 at the EGO Stadium. In a match defined by tactical discipline and few clear-cut chances, Al-Qadisiyah dominated possession with 55% but struggled to break down a resolute Al-Ittihad defense. The visitors, meanwhile, made the most of their limited opportunities, with En-Nesyri's clinical finish just before the interval ultimately separating the sides. Both teams showed flashes of quality, but the match was largely a cagey affair, with only three shots on target between them. Al-Qadisiyah's attacking duo of Julián Quiñones and Mateo Retegui found little joy against a well-organized back line, while Al-Ittihad's midfield, marshaled by Houssem Aouar and Dion Lopy, provided the platform for their crucial counter-attacks. Despite late pressure and a numerical advantage following a late Al-Ittihad red card, the hosts could not find an equalizer.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
45' — Goal
Youssef En-Nesyri scores the only goal of the match, finishing off a rare Al-Ittihad attack.
78' — Red Card
Al-Ittihad reduced to ten men after a straight red card, forcing them to defend deep for the remainder.
90' — Final Whistle
Al-Ittihad withstand late Al-Qadisiyah pressure to secure a 1-0 away win.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying 55% possession and dictating play through their midfield. However, their dominance rarely translated into meaningful chances, as they managed just one shot on target from seven attempts. The 3-1-4-2 formation allowed them to crowd the midfield, but they lacked the creative spark to unlock Al-Ittihad’s defense. Despite a late surge and a man advantage after Al-Ittihad’s red card, Al-Qadisiyah’s attacking efforts fizzled out in the final third. The defensive trio, led by Nacho Fernández, kept the visitors largely at bay aside from the decisive moment before half-time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC executed a disciplined away performance, absorbing pressure and striking decisively when it mattered. Despite conceding the majority of possession, they remained compact in their 4-4-2 setup and limited Al-Qadisiyah to just one shot on target. Their attacking threat was sporadic, but they made the most of it, with Youssef En-Nesyri’s goal on 45 minutes proving the difference. The midfield pairing of Houssem Aouar and Dion Lopy provided energy and defensive cover, while the back four dealt well with Al-Qadisiyah’s attempts to break through. Even after being reduced to ten men late on, Al-Ittihad held firm to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah’s 3-1-4-2 formation was designed to dominate the midfield and control possession, with Julian Weigl acting as the deep-lying playmaker. While this setup allowed them to dictate the tempo, it left them vulnerable to quick transitions, which Al-Ittihad exploited for their goal. The hosts struggled to create clear chances, as Al-Ittihad’s disciplined 4-4-2 shape limited space between the lines. Al-Ittihad were content to cede possession and focus on defensive solidity, relying on the pace of Steven Bergwijn and the movement of En-Nesyri to threaten on the break. After going down to ten men, they shifted even deeper, packing the box and relying on Predrag Rajković to organize the defense and claim crosses. Set pieces offered Al-Qadisiyah some hope, but Al-Ittihad’s aerial strength saw them clear their lines consistently.
Turning Point
En-Nesyri’s goal just before half-time shifted the momentum and forced Al-Qadisiyah to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Youssef En-Nesyri
His clinical finish was the decisive moment in a tightly contested match.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC: Match Preview
Al-Qadisiyah FC enter the second matchweek atop the Pro League table after a convincing 3-1 win at Al Shabab, continuing a strong run that includes three wins from their last five competitive games. Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have yet to play in the league this season, but their recent form in friendlies and continental competition is notable for attacking productivity and defensive volatility—scoring in every match but conceding two or more in four of their last five. With both sides trending towards attack-minded football and little evidence of early-season rust, this fixture carries weight for both: Al-Qadisiyah aiming to consolidate their fast start, Al-Ittihad seeking to assert themselves after a summer of transition.
The statistical matchup is shaped by high recent scoring rates and leaky defences. Al-Qadisiyah's last five average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded is skewed by a 5-1 demolition of Al-Ittihad in May, but their shot volume (9.2 per match) and set-piece threat (5 corners per game) are consistent. Al-Ittihad's last five see them averaging 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with both teams to score landing in all five. First-half goals are a notable trend: Al-Ittihad have netted eight before the break in their last five, while Al-Qadisiyah split their ten goals evenly across halves. Discipline and set pieces could also play a role, with both averaging over 0.5 yellow cards per match and corners likely to exceed nine.
The model expects a high-tempo, open contest with both attacks finding space and neither defence likely to hold out for long. The most probable scenario is a score draw, with the underlying rates pointing to a 2-2 outcome. The main uncertainty lies in the limited home/away league data for both sides, but all available indicators—from recent form to head-to-heads—suggest goals at both ends and a result that remains undecided until late.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Ittihad's last five matches have all seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals, with an average of 4.6 total goals per game.
- 2Al-Qadisiyah's only league match this season produced four goals, and their last five competitive games average 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded.
- 3Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, with only one clean sheet for either side in the last six.
Who do you think wins: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in all of Al-Ittihad's last five matches and in two of Al-Qadisiyah's last five, with both sides averaging at least two goals scored per game in their recent competitive outings.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
The over 2.5 goals rate is 100% for Al-Qadisiyah's league season so far and all of Al-Ittihad's last five matches have seen at least three goals, with their combined last five average at 4.6 total goals per game.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as one of the higher-scoring matchups in the early Pro League calendar. Both Al-Qadisiyah and Al-Ittihad arrive with strong attacking output—Al-Qadisiyah averaging 2.0 goals scored and Al-Ittihad 2.6 across their last five matches—while neither side has demonstrated a consistent ability to keep clean sheets. The distribution of recent results and the head-to-head trend both point towards a contest where both teams find the net and the outcome remains in play deep into the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al-Qadisiyah have scored at least twice in three of their last five matches, including a 5-1 away win over Al-Ittihad in May.
Defence
- →Al-Ittihad have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, but have scored in every game, averaging 2.6 per match.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head meetings have produced over 2.5 goals in seven of the last ten encounters.
🚩 Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.8 corners for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 4.2 for Al-Ittihad FC, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 84% · Over 10.5: 65%.
How Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Qadisiyah FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Ittihad FClast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Qadisiyah arrive with momentum, having won three of their last five including a 3-1 league victory and a 5-1 rout of Al-Ittihad in May. Al-Ittihad's recent run is marked by attacking consistency—scoring in every game—but defensive frailty, conceding two or more in four of their last five. Both sides come in with confidence in attack but questions at the back.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad have the edge in the last ten meetings with five wins, but Al-Qadisiyah have won two of the last three, including a dominant 5-1 away result in May. High-scoring games are common in this fixture, with seven of the last ten producing at least three goals and only one goalless draw.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is limited. The model's highest conviction is in the goals markets, particularly both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, both projected above 65%. If market odds on these are below 1.50, the edge would be minimal; higher prices could present value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC
- ⚠️Both teams have limited league sample size this season, so recent friendly and late-season form may not fully reflect current squad strength.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data reported, but lineups are unconfirmed for both sides.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–2 Al-Ittihad FCA 2-2 draw is the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' recent attacking rates—Al-Ittihad averaging 2.6 goals scored and conceding 2.0 per match, Al-Qadisiyah netting two or more in three of their last five. The greatest risk to this prediction is the small sample of league matches for both sides, which may understate defensive improvements or tactical shifts since May.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The model gives Al-Ittihad a slight edge at 37% to win, with Al-Qadisiyah at 34% and the draw at 29%. Both teams have strong recent scoring form, so a draw—particularly a score draw—remains a significant possibility.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah vs Al-Ittihad?
There is a 68% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides' recent attacking output and defensive records. Al-Ittihad have seen BTTS in all of their last five, while Al-Qadisiyah have managed it in two of five.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 66%, reflecting the high scoring rates in both teams' recent matches and a head-to-head history where seven of the last ten have gone over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.