Arbroath vs Dunfermline Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Arbroath
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dunfermline
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
5.5/10Defences on Top as Arbroath and Dunfermline Play Out Stalemate at Gayfield Park
Arbroath and Dunfermline battled to a hard-fought 0-0 draw at Gayfield Park, with both sides unable to break the deadlock in a match defined by defensive discipline and few clear chances. Despite an even share of possession (50% each) and identical corner counts (6 apiece), neither team managed to carve out many opportunities, with Arbroath registering just three shots on target and Dunfermline only one. The match was a physical contest, reflected in the high foul count (Arbroath 12, Dunfermline 11) and seven yellow cards shown by the referee. Both managers stuck to their tactical plans, with Arbroath lining up in a 4-2-3-1 and Dunfermline opting for a 3-4-3, but neither could find the attacking spark needed to claim all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
23' — Yellow Card
First yellow card of the match set the tone for a physical encounter.
39' — Save
Aidan McAdams makes his only save of the match to deny Dunfermline's sole shot on target.
54' — Yellow Card
Fourth yellow card issued as tempers flare in midfield.
67' — Corner
Arbroath win their sixth corner but fail to create a clear chance.
81' — Yellow Card
Dunfermline pick up their third yellow, highlighting the match's physical nature.
Arbroath
Arbroath showed solid organisation at the back, limiting Dunfermline to a single shot on target and matching their visitors in possession and set pieces. However, their attacking play lacked penetration, with just three shots on target from three attempts, and they failed to turn their six corners into meaningful chances. The midfield worked hard, but the final ball was often lacking.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dunfermline
Dunfermline matched Arbroath for possession and corners but struggled even more in attack, managing just one shot on target over the 90 minutes. Their back three were well-organised, keeping Arbroath at bay, but the front line failed to trouble the home defence. The midfield worked hard to disrupt Arbroath's rhythm but couldn't provide the creative spark needed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Arbroath's 4-2-3-1 provided a solid defensive base, with two holding midfielders shielding the back four and allowing the full-backs to support in wide areas. However, their attacking midfield trio struggled to find space between Dunfermline's lines, resulting in few clear chances. Dunfermline's 3-4-3 prioritised defensive stability, with wing-backs dropping deep to form a back five when out of possession. This made it difficult for Arbroath to exploit the flanks, while Dunfermline's front three were largely isolated due to a lack of service from midfield. Set pieces offered both teams a potential route to goal, but neither side could make their six corners count.
Turning Point
Aidan McAdams's save in the 39th minute preserved parity and ensured the match remained goalless.
Man of the Match
Thomas O'Brien
Commanded the Arbroath defence, snuffing out Dunfermline's rare attacks and leading by example.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Arbroath vs Dunfermline(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have identical recent form (0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game), the last H2H was 0-0, and neither side is showing attacking dominance. Draw is the most likely outcome.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
4 of last 5 for each team have gone under 2.5, and both teams failed to score in 3 of last 5. Recent H2Hs also show low-scoring patterns.
Double Chance: Arbroath or Draw
Arbroath have a slightly better H2H record at home and API model leans towards home/draw. However, overall form is very close.
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Arbroath vs Dunfermline Prediction
This is a tightly matched fixture between Arbroath and Dunfermline, with both sides coming off a 0-0 draw against each other just a week ago. Recent form is nearly identical: both average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, with multiple clean sheets but also frequent struggles to score. Head-to-head history is even, but the last two meetings have been low scoring. Expect a cagey encounter with limited attacking threat, making a draw and under 2.5 goals the most likely scenarios.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Last H2H finished 0-0; previous H2Hs show a mix but recent trend is low scoring.
Defence
- →Both teams have identical last 5 form: 1W 2D 2L, 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded.
- →Each side kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score in 3 of last 5.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either team.
Match Context
- →No meaningful home/away edge due to lack of season split data.
🚩 Arbroath vs Dunfermline Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Arbroath and 5.4 for Dunfermline, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Arbroath and Dunfermline Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Arbroathlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Dunfermlinelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Arbroath vs Dunfermline — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Arbroath vs Dunfermline
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Arbroath wins
4
Draws
4
Dunfermline wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Arbroath vs Dunfermline
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Arbroath vs Dunfermline
- ⚠️No season-long home/away or clean sheet/over 2.5 data available.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece stats for recent matches.
- ⚠️Standings positions for these two teams are not provided.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Arbroath vs Dunfermline: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.