AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
AS Marsa
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
ES Zarzis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: AS Marsa or Draw
@ 1.6(+12% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10AS Marsa Edge ES Zarzis in Tight Ligue 1 Contest
AS Marsa secured a narrow 1-0 victory over ES Zarzis in a closely contested Ligue 1 encounter. The decisive moment arrived early in the first half, with AS Marsa finding the net in the 15th minute and holding firm for the remainder of the match. Despite ES Zarzis' efforts to claw their way back, the hosts' defensive discipline and composure under pressure ultimately proved decisive. Both sides showed flashes of quality but struggled to convert possession into clear-cut chances. The match was punctuated by a handful of bookings, reflecting the competitive edge throughout. AS Marsa's early strike set the tone, and while ES Zarzis pushed for an equaliser, they found the home defence impenetrable on the day.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
AS Marsa score the only goal of the match, establishing an early lead.
First Half' — Yellow Card
AS Marsa receive a yellow card, showing the match's competitive edge.
Second Half' — Yellow Card
ES Zarzis pick up two yellow cards as they push for an equaliser.
AS Marsa
AS Marsa started brightly, capitalising on an early opportunity to take the lead in the 15th minute. After going ahead, they managed the game well, showing discipline and organisation at the back. The hosts picked up a yellow card but otherwise kept their composure, limiting ES Zarzis' chances and seeing out the match with a clean sheet. Their ability to maintain focus after taking the lead was central to their success.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis were unable to recover from conceding early, despite a spirited effort. They showed determination and pressed for an equaliser, but their attacking play lacked the cutting edge required to break down a resolute AS Marsa defence. The visitors' frustration was evident, as reflected in the two yellow cards they collected. Ultimately, ES Zarzis could not find the breakthrough needed to salvage a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups and formations unavailable, both teams appeared to focus on defensive solidity after the early goal. AS Marsa likely sat deeper after taking the lead, concentrating on organisation and limiting space for ES Zarzis to exploit. The visitors, meanwhile, were forced to chase the game, resulting in increased physicality and two bookings as they pressed higher up the pitch. Set pieces and transitions became crucial, but neither side could capitalise beyond the early breakthrough.
Turning Point
AS Marsa's goal in the 15th minute set the tone, allowing them to dictate the tempo and forcing ES Zarzis to chase the game.
Man of the Match
AS Marsa Goalscorer
Scored the decisive goal and contributed to a disciplined team performance.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis?
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Where the Model Sees Value: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: AS Marsa or Draw@ 1.6
AS Marsa's home record is solid (6W/1D/6L), and Zarzis are inconsistent away. The model gives a higher probability to AS Marsa avoiding defeat than the implied odds suggest.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.1
Both teams have struggled for wins recently and have similar defensive/attacking metrics. The draw is the most likely single outcome in a low-scoring, tight match.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.55
Both teams average under 1 goal scored per match, and both have a low over 2.5% (AS Marsa 29%, Zarzis 42%). Recent matches also trend under.
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis Prediction
This is a clash between two lower mid-table sides with similar records and recent form. AS Marsa have been inconsistent at home but have shown some resilience, while ES Zarzis are slightly better away but have also struggled to convert draws into wins. Both sides have struggled for goals, and their defensive records are comparable. Expect a tight, tactical game with few clear chances, likely decided by a single goal or ending in a draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form is poor for both: Marsa (DLWLL), Zarzis (DDLDL).
Attack
- →Both teams have scored less than 1 goal per game on average this season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →AS Marsa's home record is balanced (6W/1D/6L), Zarzis' away record is slightly better (5W/3D/5L).
- →Only 1 of Marsa's last 5 league games saw both teams score.
- →Head-to-head is limited but Marsa won the reverse fixture 2-0 away.
How AS Marsa and ES Zarzis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
AS Marsalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis — Last 10 Matches
What History Says: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
AS Marsa wins
0
Draws
0
ES Zarzis wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data available for recent matches.
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H, so little long-term pattern.
- ⚠️Odds data is incomplete; value edges are illustrative.
- ⚠️Low scoring averages increase variance in correct score and goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.