Bahia vs Flamengo Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Bahia
Full Time
0 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Flamengo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Flamengo Win
@ 2.38(+14% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Flamengo Overpower Bahia with Second-Half Blitz in Salvador
Flamengo delivered a commanding second-half performance to secure a 3-0 victory over Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova. Despite a goalless first half, the visitors' dominance in possession and attacking intent eventually paid dividends, as they broke the deadlock in the 64th minute and added two more goals in quick succession. Bahia, set up defensively with a 5-3-2 formation, struggled to contain Flamengo’s relentless pressure and rarely threatened going forward. The match statistics tell the story: Flamengo controlled 64% of possession, fired 21 shots with 15 on target, and earned 14 corners, keeping Bahia pinned in their own half for much of the contest. Bahia, meanwhile, managed just 3 shots on target from 9 attempts and were forced into a rearguard action, picking up 4 yellow cards as they tried to stem the tide. Ultimately, Flamengo’s quality and tactical flexibility proved decisive, leaving Bahia with little to show for their defensive efforts.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
64' — Goal
Pedro breaks the deadlock for Flamengo, finishing off a sweeping move.
73' — Goal
Samuel Lino doubles Flamengo’s lead, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
78' — Goal
J. Carrascal adds a third, putting the result beyond doubt.
First Half' — Yellow Cards
Bahia pick up multiple bookings as they fight to contain Flamengo’s attack.
Bahia
Bahia adopted a defensive 5-3-2 setup, aiming to frustrate Flamengo and hit on the break. While their discipline and organization held firm in the first half, they struggled to maintain their shape under mounting pressure after the interval. The hosts offered little going forward, with only 3 shots on target and just 36% possession, and their resistance crumbled once Flamengo found the opener. Four yellow cards reflected their desperate attempts to disrupt Flamengo’s rhythm. In attack, Bahia’s front duo of Erick Pulga and A. Véliz were largely isolated, unable to capitalize on rare moments of transition. The midfield trio worked hard but were overrun as the game wore on, and the back five eventually succumbed to Flamengo’s waves of attacks.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Flamengo
Flamengo showcased their attacking prowess and tactical flexibility, dominating the match from start to finish. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1, they controlled possession (64%), created a barrage of chances (21 shots, 15 on target), and forced 14 corners. After a patient first half, they shifted gears in the second, breaking through Bahia’s defensive wall and quickly putting the game out of reach with three goals in a 14-minute span. The midfield duo of Jorginho and E. Pulgar dictated play, while creative sparks from G. Plata, J. Carrascal, and Samuel Lino unlocked Bahia’s defense. Pedro led the line effectively, and the full-backs provided width and support in attack. Flamengo’s defensive discipline was also notable, conceding few chances and picking up only two yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bahia’s 5-3-2 formation was designed to absorb pressure and limit space between the lines, but their inability to transition into attack left them pinned back. The midfield trio was often outnumbered and forced into reactive defending, while the wing-backs were pushed deep by Flamengo’s wide play. Flamengo’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch Bahia horizontally. The double pivot provided stability, freeing the attacking midfielders to interchange and overload Bahia’s flanks. Set pieces and corners were a constant threat, and their patient build-up eventually wore down Bahia’s resistance. Tactical substitutions after the first goal further tilted the balance, as Flamengo pressed their advantage and killed the game off.
Turning Point
Pedro’s opening goal in the 64th minute shattered Bahia’s defensive resolve and opened the floodgates for Flamengo.
Man of the Match
Pedro
His crucial opener broke the deadlock and set the tone for Flamengo’s dominant finish.
Bahia vs Flamengo: Match Preview
Bahia come into this clash sitting sixth in Serie A, but recent defeats to Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense have checked their momentum after a three-match winning run. Their home form remains consistent with just two losses in 14, though a high draw count has limited their push for a top-four spot. Flamengo, meanwhile, lead the table by a single point, having dropped points only once in their last five league outings and carrying the league's best away record (8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses).
The statistical matchup is shaped by Flamengo's superior rates at both ends: they average 1.93 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded per away game, while Bahia's home attack produces 1.57 per match but concedes a concerning 1.00. Both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Flamengo's league fixtures. Bahia's shot volume at home (12.2 per game last five) suggests they will create chances, but Flamengo's defensive structure and set-piece threat (7 corners per game last five) give them the edge.
The model expects Flamengo's attacking efficiency and psychological advantage from nine wins in the last ten H2H meetings to prove decisive. Bahia's capacity to score means a close, open contest, but Flamengo's deeper squad and higher conversion rate tilt the probabilities toward a 2-1 away win.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bahia vs Flamengo that most previews miss.
- 1Flamengo have a 90% win rate in the last 10 H2H meetings with Bahia.
- 2Bahia have drawn 6 of 14 home matches this season, the joint-highest in the top half.
- 3Flamengo matches see over 2.5 goals 62% of the time, the highest in Serie A.
Who do you think wins: Bahia vs Flamengo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bahia vs Flamengo(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Flamengo Win@ 2.36
Flamengo's away win probability is 48% by the model versus an implied 42% from the odds, driven by their superior scoring rate (1.93 goals per away game) and a dominant 9 wins in the last 10 H2H meetings.
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The Case For This Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction
This fixture pits a top-six Bahia side with a solid home record but recent stumbles against a Flamengo outfit leading the league, boasting the best away attack and a formidable H2H grip. The statistical profile points to a goal-rich game, with both sides averaging nearly 2 goals per match over the last five and over 2.5 goals landing in 62% of Flamengo's league games. Flamengo's attacking depth and defensive solidity away from home (1.00 conceded per away match) tip the balance, though Bahia's consistent shot volume at Arena Fonte Nova suggests they can contribute. Expect Flamengo's efficiency and historical dominance to edge a competitive, open contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Flamengo have won 9 of the last 10 H2H meetings.
Defence
- →Flamengo average 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away game.
- →Bahia's home record: 6W, 6D, 2L (22 scored, 14 conceded).
🚩 Bahia vs Flamengo Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Bahia and 6.3 for Flamengo, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How Bahia and Flamengo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bahia vs Flamengo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bahialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahia have stumbled with back-to-back defeats after a three-match winning streak, but their underlying attacking numbers remain solid, averaging 1.8 goals from 12.2 shots per game over the last five. Flamengo arrive in stronger form, unbeaten in five and averaging 1.8 goals per game, with only one loss in their last ten league matches.
Bahia vs Flamengo — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +45.16% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Bahia vs Flamengo
Flamengo have won nine of the last ten meetings with Bahia, including a 2-0 home win earlier this season. Most encounters have been close, but Flamengo's ability to edge tight contests has been decisive, with Bahia's only recent win coming at home last year.
Bahia vs Flamengo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Bahia wins
0
Draws
9
Flamengo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bahia vs Flamengo
The clearest value is on the away win, where the model's 48% probability exceeds the 42% implied by odds of 2.38, yielding a +14% expected value. Other markets, such as over 2.5 goals and BTTS, are closely aligned with bookmaker prices, suggesting little edge there.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bahia vs Flamengo
- ⚠️Bahia's home draw rate (6 in 14) introduces variance.
- ⚠️Both teams have high BTTS rates in recent games (4 of last 5 for each).
- ⚠️No major injuries, but Flamengo's recent red cards could affect discipline.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bahia 1–2 FlamengoFlamengo are projected to edge this fixture 2-1, underpinned by their league-leading away scoring rate and overwhelming H2H record. The likeliest way this call goes wrong is Bahia converting their high shot volume into a rare home upset or holding out for another home draw, given their propensity for stalemates at Arena Fonte Nova.
Bahia vs Flamengo: Common Questions
Who will win Bahia vs Flamengo?
The model gives Flamengo a 48% chance of victory, with Bahia at 24% and the draw at 28%. Flamengo's superior away record and nine wins in the last ten H2H meetings are key factors.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Both teams have scored in four of the last five games for each side, and the model estimates a 60% probability for BTTS in this match, reflecting both teams' recent attacking output.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Flamengo's league matches and 52% for Bahia; the model assigns a 58% chance to over 2.5 goals here, making it more likely than not.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bahia vs Flamengo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.