Barnet vs Port Vale Predictions

Barnet PredictionsPort Vale PredictionsLeague TwoH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
League TwoLeague Two · England
high confidence
Barnet

Barnet

AI Predicted Score

2 - 1

Port Vale

Port Vale

🗓️ Saturday, 21 Nov 2026 at 15:00 GMT (venue time) · 15:00 UTC (your time)📍 The Hive Stadium, London

Win Probability (1X2)

Barnet 51%Draw 28%Port Vale 21%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: Barnet Win

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Barnet vs Port Vale

Match Result: Barnet Win
7/10
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
6/10

Barnet vs Port Vale: Match Preview

Barnet come into this fixture second in League Two, with just one defeat in thirteen and a home record of four wins from seven. Their recent form is strong, unbeaten in five in all competitions (WWDWD), and they have scored at least three goals in three of their last four matches. Port Vale, in contrast, sit 19th with a stark home/away split: all four league wins have come at Vale Park, while away from home they have managed just one point from six outings.

Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Barnet’s attacking output against Port Vale’s travel sickness. Barnet average 2.14 goals per home game and 13.2 shots per match over their last five, while Port Vale’s away defence concedes 1.83 per game and has kept just two clean sheets in twelve league matches overall. Barnet’s games are high-event, with 77% finishing over 2.5 goals, and both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five. Corners are also a feature, with Barnet averaging 6.6 and Vale 4.6 per match in their respective last fives.

The model expects Barnet to dictate the tempo, generating more shots and early pressure, with a 61% probability of the first goal arriving before the 30th minute. Vale’s recent cup scoring surge is noted but not reflected in their league away numbers. The most likely scenario is a Barnet win in a match with multiple goals, but their low clean sheet rate means a Port Vale goal cannot be discounted.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Barnet1.90

Expected goals · model says 1.90

Port Vale1.25

Expected goals · model says 1.25

Win Probability
Barnet 53% Draw 22% Port Vale 25%

Over 2.5 Goals

61%

BTTS: Yes

61%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Barnet vs Port Vale Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
51%
28%
21%
Barnet 51%Draw 28%Port Vale 21%
Both Teams to Score
54%
46%
Yes 54%No 46%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
63%
37%
Over 2.5 63%Under 2.5 37%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
72%
28%
Over 9.5 72%Under 9.5 28%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Barnet vs Port Vale that most previews miss.

  • 1Barnet’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of 13 league games (76.9%), the highest rate in the division.
  • 2Port Vale have scored just 2 goals in 6 away league games (0.33 per game) and failed to win any.
  • 3Combined, these teams average 11.2 corners per game over their last five matches.

Who do you think wins: Barnet vs Port Vale?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Barnet vs Port Vale Prediction

Barnet’s prolific home attack meets a Port Vale side with the division’s weakest away record. The data points to a match where Barnet’s high shot and goal output at The Hive should test a Vale defence that concedes nearly two per away outing. While Port Vale’s recent cup form flatters, their league away numbers remain a major liability.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Barnet’s last five have produced 12 goals for and 5 against, while Port Vale’s last five in all competitions show a temporary scoring uptick but not away from home.

Defence

  • →Port Vale have failed to win in six away league games, scoring just twice and conceding 11.

Match Context

  • →Barnet average 2.14 goals per home game, with 77% of their league matches going over 2.5 goals.

🚩 Barnet vs Port Vale Corners Prediction

high confidence
11.5expected total corners
Over 72%
Under 28%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 6.1 corners for Barnet and 5.4 for Port Vale, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 60%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Barnet and Port Vale Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Barnet vs Port Vale Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

BarnetBarnetlast 5 matches
Kane SmithXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Kabongo Tshimangasub/out
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

J MaskellXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Bright SiawXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Nnamdi OfoborhXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Damola AjayiXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Port ValePort Valelast 5 matches
Keyrol Alexis Figueroa NoralesXI
4 goals in 5
80%

In exceptional form

Onel HernándezXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Max Watters sub/out
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Oliver Lynchsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

George ByersXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Jordan GabrielXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Barnet are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, scoring 12 and conceding 5, and have lost just once all season. Port Vale have won three on the bounce in all competitions, but their league away form is dire, with only one point from six and just two goals scored on the road.

Barnet vs Port Vale — Last 10 Matches

BarnetBarnetLast 10 results
D1-1
W3-1
D1-1
L1-3
W2-1
W3-1
W3-1
W2-1
D3-3
D1-1
D@ Crewe1-1
Wvs York3-1
Dvs Oldham1-1
Lvs Swindon Town1-3
W@ Tranmere2-1
W@ Bristol Rovers3-1
Wvs Fleetwood Town3-1
Wvs Accrington ST2-1
D@ Chesterfield3-3
D@ Exeter City1-1

Strengths

  • +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
  • +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
Port ValePort ValeLast 10 results
W4-2
L0-2
D1-1
W1-0
W1-0
L0-2
W1-0
L0-1
L1-3
D0-0
Wvs Rochdale4-2
L@ York0-2
D@ Gillingham1-1
Wvs Chesterfield1-0
Wvs Grimsby1-0
L@ Walsall0-2
Wvs Exeter City1-0
L@ Salford City0-1
L@ Swindon Town1-3
Dvs Crewe0-0

Strengths

  • +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
  • +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)

What History Says: Barnet vs Port Vale

Port Vale have won three of the last six meetings, including two at The Hive, but the last encounter was in 2018 and squad turnover limits its predictive value. Historically, draws and away wins have been common, but current form favours Barnet.

Barnet vs Port Vale Head-to-Head History

Last 6 meetings between these sides

1

Barnet wins

2

Draws

3

Port Vale wins

17%33% draws50%
13 Mar 18Barnet vs Port Vale1-1
18 Nov 17Port Vale vs Barnet1-0
9 Feb 13Barnet vs Port Vale0-0
18 Aug 12Port Vale vs Barnet3-0
10 Mar 12Port Vale vs Barnet1-2
13 Aug 11Barnet vs Port Vale1-3

Things to Watch: Barnet vs Port Vale

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are limited.
  • ⚠️Port Vale’s recent three-match winning streak is driven by home and cup fixtures, not league away form.
  • ⚠️Barnet’s clean sheet rate is low (0% in league), so BTTS risk is non-negligible.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Barnet 2–1 Port Vale

Barnet are projected to win 2-1, driven by their 2.14 goals per home game and Port Vale’s away defensive frailty (11 conceded in six). The biggest risk to this outcome is Barnet’s inability to keep clean sheets, which could allow Vale to capitalise on limited chances and force a draw.

Barnet vs Port Vale: Common Questions

Who will win Barnet vs Port Vale?

The model gives Barnet a 51% chance of victory, with Port Vale at 21% and the draw at 28%. Barnet’s strong home scoring record and Vale’s poor away form are the key drivers.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Barnet vs Port Vale?

There’s a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals, with Barnet’s matches finishing above that line in 77% of league games and both teams averaging over 2 goals scored per game in their last five.

Are both teams likely to score in Barnet vs Port Vale?

Both teams to score rates at 54% probability, reflecting Barnet’s low clean sheet rate (0% in league) and Port Vale’s recent improvement in attack, though Vale’s away scoring remains weak.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Barnet vs Port Vale: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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