Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Predictions
League Two · England
Crawley Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Fleetwood Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Fleetwood Town Win
Recommended Bets: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town: Match Preview
Crawley Town enter this fixture rooted to the foot of League Two, having collected just nine points from twelve matches and still searching for a first home victory. Their recent form is troubling, with two consecutive defeats and only one win in their last five, while their home record stands at 0-2-4 with a -6 goal difference. Fleetwood Town, though only 16th, have shown a more stable profile, picking up 17 points from 14 games and coming off a convincing 3-1 win over Bristol Rovers.
The statistical matchup is defined by Crawley's defensive struggles at The Broadfield Stadium—conceding two goals per home game and keeping no clean sheets—against a Fleetwood attack that has found the net in every one of their last five outings. Fleetwood's away defence is also vulnerable (13 conceded in 7 away), but their attack is more productive than Crawley's, averaging 1.14 goals per away game. Both sides average over five corners per match, and Fleetwood's recent games have seen a high card count (2.6 yellows per game), suggesting a contest with plenty of set pieces and potential disruptions.
Given these rates, the model leans towards an away win in a game likely to feature at least two goals. Fleetwood's second-half scoring surge (eight after the break in their last five) could prove decisive against a Crawley side that fades late and rarely keeps opponents out. The likeliest scenario is Fleetwood capitalising on Crawley's defensive lapses, particularly after half-time, to secure all three points.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town that most previews miss.
- 1Crawley Town have failed to win any of their last six home league matches, conceding at least twice in four of those games.
- 2Fleetwood Town have scored eight of their last ten league goals in the second half, pointing to a late attacking edge.
- 3The last five H2H meetings have produced a winner every time, with no draws and three away victories.
Who do you think wins: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Fleetwood Town Win
Fleetwood Town's away scoring rate (1.14 goals per away game) and Crawley Town's winless home record (0W-2D-4L, 6 scored, 12 conceded) tilt the probabilities strongly towards the visitors, with a 46% model win probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average above 1.25 goals scored and conceded per game, and Crawley Town's over 2.5 goal rate stands at 50% for the season, suggesting a slightly goal-rich environment.
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More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Prediction
This fixture pits bottom-placed Crawley Town, still seeking a first home win, against a Fleetwood Town side whose away form has been patchy but whose overall numbers are steadier. Crawley have just nine points from twelve matches and have lost four of six at home, while Fleetwood, though only 16th, have shown more attacking consistency and are coming off a 3-1 win. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Crawley's defensive frailty at home (2.0 goals conceded per home game) and Fleetwood's ability to find the net on their travels (eight away goals in seven). Fleetwood's last five matches average 3.4 total goals and include only one clean sheet, while Crawley have failed to keep a home clean sheet all campaign. Set piece metrics are notable: both sides average over five corners per game, hinting at a match with frequent attacking phases and potential for set-piece goals. Discipline could be a factor, with Fleetwood averaging 2.6 yellows per game in their last five. The model expects Fleetwood's more reliable attack to capitalise on Crawley's defensive issues, especially after the break, given Fleetwood's eight second-half goals in their last five. While Crawley have shown some resilience, their inability to keep teams out at home and their low scoring ceiling point to a likely away victory in a match that should see two or more goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fleetwood Town have scored in all of their last five matches and average 1.29 goals per game this season.
Defence
- →Crawley Town are winless at home (0W-2D-4L) and have conceded 12 goals in six home matches.
Match Context
- →Both teams' matches have seen at least three goals in over 45% of their respective league fixtures.
🚩 Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Crawley Town and 5 for Fleetwood Town, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Crawley Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fleetwood Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Crawley Town are struggling, with just one win in their last five matches and a two-game losing streak, compounded by a winless home campaign. Fleetwood Town, while inconsistent, have picked up seven points from their last five and scored in every outing, signalling a more stable trajectory.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town have had the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five meetings, including two away victories at Crawley. Notably, there have been no draws in the last five encounters, and four of those were decided by a single goal.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Crawley Town wins
0
Draws
3
Fleetwood Town wins
Things to Watch: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Fleetwood's away record is poor (1W-2D-4L), which tempers confidence in a strong away win probability.
- ⚠️Recent cup matches may have involved rotated squads, so last-5 form should be weighted with caution.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Crawley Town 1–2 Fleetwood TownThe model projects a 2-1 win for Fleetwood Town, underpinned by Crawley's league-worst home defensive record (2.0 goals conceded per home game) and Fleetwood's ability to score consistently away. The main risk is Fleetwood's own away frailty—just one win in seven on the road—which could allow Crawley to snatch a point if Fleetwood fail to convert their chances.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town: Common Questions
Who will win Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town are favoured by the model with a 46% win probability, compared to 22% for Crawley Town and 32% for the draw. Crawley's winless home record and Fleetwood's more reliable attack drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
The model gives a 51% probability for both teams to score, reflecting that Crawley have scored in four of their last five and Fleetwood have scored in all of theirs, but both sides also concede regularly.
How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
There's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance of over 1.5, based on both teams averaging over 2.5 total goals per game this season and their recent defensive records.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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